Reads as: riskier than 79.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
WINTERHOLLER DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
SIMMONS BENJAMIN
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.8 vs natl
CONNELL ERIC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
MORRISSEY ROBERT
13 facilities
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
8 facilities
NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
CONNELL ERIC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
SIMMONS BENJAMIN
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
WINTERHOLLER DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
62% fined
MORRISSEY ROBERT
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.29
3.23
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.34
0.56
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.16
3.13
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.34
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
49.9
3.29
0.34
0.65
2.29
3.16
0.0%
2025Q3
92
52.0
3.14
0.26
0.80
2.08
3.04
0.0%
2025Q2
91
48.8
3.22
0.33
0.74
2.15
3.13
0.0%
2025Q1
90
50.4
3.27
0.34
0.67
2.26
3.03
0.0%
2024Q4
92
48.1
3.07
0.28
0.79
2.00
2.96
0.0%
2024Q3
92
44.2
3.16
0.31
0.75
2.11
2.97
0.0%
2024Q2
91
41.3
2.92
0.46
0.66
1.80
2.81
8.9%
2024Q1
91
41.1
2.85
0.44
0.71
1.70
2.88
3.5%
2023Q4
92
42.5
3.03
0.45
0.67
1.91
2.88
0.0%
2023Q3
92
43.4
3.12
0.53
0.51
2.08
3.00
0.0%
2023Q2
91
44.1
3.15
0.38
0.67
2.11
2.87
0.0%
2023Q1
90
39.5
3.02
0.47
0.64
1.92
2.71
0.0%
2022Q4
92
38.4
3.27
0.41
0.70
2.16
3.25
4.7%
2022Q3
92
39.8
3.21
0.33
0.91
1.97
3.10
6.5%
2022Q2
91
41.6
3.14
0.40
0.76
1.97
2.93
3.1%
2022Q1
90
41.0
3.25
0.24
0.84
2.16
3.23
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
G
—
2025-02-13
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2025-03-01
2025-02-13
Health
F0825
Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident.
D
2025-03-01
2024-07-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-23
2024-02-21
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-03-29
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-10-29
2023-11-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-01-01
2023-11-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-01
2022-10-20
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-11-11
2022-10-20
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2022-11-11
2022-10-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-11-11
2022-10-20
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2022-11-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CONNELL, ERIC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-14
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE HEALTHCARE CONSULTING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE HEALTHCARE CONSULTING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-14
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISON, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPCO MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-14
current
pecos_ownership
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPCO MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
SAGE VIEW SNF OPERATIONS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
SAGE VIEW SNF OPERATIONS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-14
current
pecos_ownership
SAGE VIEW SNF REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-14
current
pecos_ownership
SIMMONS, BENJAMIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
SPIELMAN, SHIMON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
WINTERHOLLER, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
WISWELL, GAVIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WISWELL, GAVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
YENOWITZ, YITZCHOK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
YENOWITZ, YITZCHOK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, EDWARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, EDWARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN SIMMONS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID WINTERHOLLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD ZIMMERMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD ZIMMERMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC CONNELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAVIN WISWELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAVIN WISWELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MORRISON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHIMON SPIELMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK YENOWITZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK YENOWITZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$416,431
—
—
—
$116,521
2
—
2023-12-31
$90,578
—
—
—
$37,836
2
—
2023-08-30
$190,820
—
—
—
$36,724
2
—
2022-12-31
$315,959
—
—
—
$83,542
2
—
2021-12-31
$299,079
—
—
—
$59,028
5
—
2020-12-31
$332,994
—
—
—
$68,979
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 56037
acs median gross
0
$374
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56037
fmr
0
$735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56037
acs median gross
1
$788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56037
fmr
1
$854
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56037
acs median gross
2
$886
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56037
fmr
2
$996
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56037
acs median gross
3
$1,062
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56037
fmr
3
$1,263
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56037
acs median gross
4
$1,386
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56037
fmr
4
$1,671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56037
acs median gross
5
$1,527
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56037
acs median gross
$911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56037
acs recent mover gross
$883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82901
acs median gross
0
$908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82901
acs median gross
1
$799
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82901
acs median gross
2
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82901
acs median gross
3
$1,084
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82901
acs median gross
4
$1,377
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82901
acs median gross
$908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82901
acs recent mover gross
$898
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 82901
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 110
1
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 90
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
safmr
1
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 110
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 90
2
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
safmr
2
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 110
3
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 90
3
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
safmr
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 110
4
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
payment standard 90
4
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82901
safmr
4
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.