Reads as: riskier than 87.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
WINTERHOLLER DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.3 vs natl
SIMMONS BENJAMIN
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.8 vs natl
CONNELL ERIC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
MORRISSEY ROBERT
13 facilities
connection
Buyer assembling a chain (5+ takeovers/24mo)
8 facilities
NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
CONNELL ERIC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
SIMMONS BENJAMIN
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
73% fined
WINTERHOLLER DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
62% fined
MORRISSEY ROBERT
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.69
3.23
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.51
0.56
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.85
3.13
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.63
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
87.9
2.69
0.51
0.61
1.57
2.85
0.0%
2025Q3
92
86.8
2.85
0.44
0.66
1.75
2.80
0.0%
2025Q2
91
83.0
2.80
0.40
0.53
1.87
2.72
0.0%
2025Q1
90
84.8
2.67
0.41
0.47
1.78
2.72
0.0%
2024Q4
92
82.6
2.91
0.41
0.53
1.98
2.87
0.0%
2024Q3
92
82.6
2.76
0.35
0.61
1.79
2.79
0.0%
2024Q2
91
90.1
2.65
0.33
0.55
1.76
2.64
0.0%
2024Q1
91
90.4
2.67
0.27
0.47
1.93
2.67
0.0%
2023Q4
92
86.0
2.74
0.37
0.54
1.83
2.70
1.6%
2023Q3
92
87.6
2.51
0.44
0.48
1.60
2.49
0.0%
2023Q2
91
77.7
3.03
0.40
0.69
1.93
2.90
6.5%
2023Q1
90
96.8
2.84
0.29
0.87
1.68
2.56
17.7%
2022Q4
92
109.8
2.46
0.20
0.78
1.48
2.25
17.2%
2022Q3
92
112.1
2.46
0.25
0.73
1.48
2.19
12.7%
2022Q2
91
112.4
2.57
0.35
0.61
1.60
2.26
0.0%
2022Q1
90
111.8
2.53
0.29
0.70
1.54
2.28
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-05-08
2026-03-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-05-08
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-05-08
2026-03-26
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2026-05-08
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-05-08
2025-06-24
Health · complaint
F0627
Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge.
D
2025-07-19
2025-06-24
Health · complaint
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
G
2025-07-19
2024-08-07
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-09-09
2024-08-07
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2024-09-09
2024-08-07
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2024-09-09
2024-08-07
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2024-09-09
2024-08-07
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2024-09-09
2024-08-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-09-09
2024-08-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-09
2024-04-12
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2024-05-13
2024-04-12
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-05-13
2024-04-12
Health · complaint
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
F
2024-05-13
2024-04-12
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-05-13
2024-04-12
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-05-13
2023-10-11
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2023-10-29
2023-05-25
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-06-23
2023-05-25
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-06-23
2023-05-25
Health
F0800
Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs.
D
2023-06-23
2023-05-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-06-23
2023-05-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-06-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CONNELL, ERIC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-21
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE HEALTHCARE CONSULTING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
COUVE HEALTHCARE CONSULTING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
DOBSON, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
GRANITE SNF OPERATIONS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
GRANITE SNF OPERATIONS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
GRANITE SNF REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, BRENDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISON, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPCO MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OPCO MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-13
current
pecos_ownership
SIMMONS, BENJAMIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
SPIELMAN, SHIMON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
WINTERHOLLER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
YENOWITZ, YITZCHOK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN SIMMONS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENDA HANCOCK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID WINTERHOLLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC CONNELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH DOBSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MORRISON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHIMON SPIELMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK YENOWITZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$665,127
—
—
—
$116,521
2
—
2023-12-31
$138,061
—
—
—
$38,047
2
—
2023-08-30
$415,136
—
—
—
$36,724
2
—
2022-12-31
$654,287
—
—
—
$83,542
2
—
2021-12-31
$603,187
—
—
—
$59,028
5
—
2020-12-31
$569,469
—
—
—
$68,979
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 56021
acs median gross
0
$773
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56021
fmr
0
$809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56021
acs median gross
1
$894
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56021
fmr
1
$917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56021
acs median gross
2
$1,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56021
fmr
2
$1,174
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56021
acs median gross
3
$1,434
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56021
fmr
3
$1,633
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56021
acs median gross
4
$2,029
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56021
fmr
4
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 56021
acs median gross
5
$1,692
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56021
acs median gross
$1,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 56021
acs recent mover gross
$1,238
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs median gross
0
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs median gross
1
$907
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs median gross
2
$1,084
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs median gross
3
$1,451
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs median gross
4
$2,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs median gross
5
$1,938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs median gross
$1,133
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 82001
acs recent mover gross
$1,220
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 82001
payment standard 110
0
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 90
0
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
safmr
0
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 110
1
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 90
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
safmr
1
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 110
2
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 90
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
safmr
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 110
3
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 90
3
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
safmr
3
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 110
4
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
payment standard 90
4
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 82001
safmr
4
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.