Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

951–1,000

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
951	Spartanburg Hospital for Restorative Care SNF	2.8%	93.8	A	SC	Spartanburg	25	SPARTANBURG REGIONAL HEALTH SERVICES DISTRICT INC
952	SARAH REED SENIOR LIVING	2.8%	93.8	A	PA	ERIE	106	—
953	PONTOTOC NURSING HOME	2.8%	93.8	A	MS	PONTOTOC	44	—
954	The Arboretum At The Woodlands	2.8%	93.8	A	SC	Greenville	30	—
955	John J Kane Regional Center-Gl	2.8%	93.8	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	255	—
956	Sarah Neuman Center for Rehabilitation and Nursing	2.8%	93.8	D	NY	MAMARONECK	300	—
957	NORTON COMMUNITY HOSPITAL SNF UNIT	2.8%	93.8	A	VA	NORTON	44	BALLAD HEALTH
958	SAINT VINCENT REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	2.8%	93.8	B	NH	BERLIN	80	NH CATHOLIC CHARITIES INC
959	PAVILION FOR HEALTH CARE, THE	2.8%	93.8	A	FL	PENNEY FARMS	50	—
960	OUR LADY OF PERPETUAL HELP	2.8%	93.8	A	VA	VIRGINIA BEACH	30	—
961	SOUTHWIND AT SPEARVILLE	2.8%	93.8	B	KS	SPEARVILLE	28	—
962	NORTH SHORE HEALTH	2.8%	93.7	A	MN	GRAND MARAIS	37	COOK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
963	BROOKVIEW HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.8%	93.7	A	PA	CHAMBERSBURG	56	—
964	RIVERVIEW HEALTH & REHAB CTR	2.8%	93.7	C	GA	SAVANNAH	284	—
965	ST JOHNLAND NURSING CENTER INC	2.8%	93.7	C	NY	KINGS PARK	250	—
966	MT HOPE NAZARENE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	2.8%	93.7	A	PA	MANHEIM	50	—
967	Lifecare Greenbush Manor	2.8%	93.7	A	MN	GREENBUSH	40	—
968	WILLOWBROOKE COURT-SPRING HOUS	2.8%	93.7	A	PA	LOWER GWYNEDD	16	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
969	BEAR VALLEY COMMUNITY HOSPITAL	2.8%	93.7	A	CA	BIG BEAR LAKE	21	—
970	HEALTH CENTER AT FRANKLIN PARK	2.8%	93.7	B	CO	DENVER	86	—
971	MADONNA TOWERS OF ROCHESTER	2.8%	93.7	A	MN	ROCHESTER	62	—
972	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE OF DUBLIN	2.8%	93.7	A	OH	DUBLIN	50	—
973	L.M.C.- Extended Care	2.8%	93.7	C	SC	Lexington	352	—
974	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT GETTYSBURG	2.8%	93.7	B	PA	GETTYSBURG	60	—
975	St Luke's Elmore Long Term Care	2.8%	93.7	A	ID	Mountain Home	38	ST LUKES HEALTH SYSTEM LTD
976	Mount Olivet Home	2.8%	93.7	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	92	—
977	Ponderosa Villa	2.8%	93.6	B	NE	Crawford	35	CASCADES HEALTHCARE LLC
978	Michael J Fitzmaurice South Dakota Veterans Home	2.8%	93.6	A	SD	HOT SPRINGS	78	—
979	COMMUNITY FIRST MEDICAL CENTER	2.8%	93.6	B	IL	CHICAGO	66	—
980	MATHER EVANSTON, THE	2.8%	93.6	A	IL	EVANSTON	37	—
981	BLUE RIVER HEALTHCARE, INC	2.8%	93.6	A	OK	TISHOMINGO	70	—
982	BEDFORD CO NURSING HOME	2.8%	93.6	B	VA	BEDFORD	90	—
983	LAREDO SOUTH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.8%	93.6	D	TX	LAREDO	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
984	GOOD SHEPHERD VILLAGE AT ENDWELL	2.8%	93.6	A	NY	ENDWELL	32	—
985	Philadelphia Protestant Home	2.8%	93.6	B	PA	PHILADELPHIA	116	—
986	The Emeralds at Grand Rapids LLC	2.8%	93.6	D	MN	GRAND RAPIDS	93	—
987	Saluda Nursing Center	2.8%	93.6	A	SC	Saluda	176	—
988	HEALTH CENTER AT GLENBURN HOME	2.8%	93.6	B	IN	LINTON	133	GREENE COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
989	CONCORDIA AT REBECCA RESIDENCE	2.8%	93.6	A	PA	ALLISON PARK	60	—
990	MASONICARE HEALTH CENTER	2.8%	93.6	B	CT	WALLINGFORD	336	MASONICARE INC
991	LEAHI HOSPITAL	2.7%	93.5	A	HI	HONOLULU	155	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
992	HATLEY HEALTH CARE INC	2.7%	93.5	B	AL	CLANTON	201	—
993	ROBERT LEE CARE CENTER	2.7%	93.5	B	TX	ROBERT LEE	0	WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
994	Michigan Masonic Home	2.7%	93.5	B	MI	Alma	204	—
995	KINGSTON CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE	2.7%	93.5	A	RI	WEST KINGSTON	55	—
996	Brewster Village	2.7%	93.5	A	WI	Appleton	204	—
997	HERITAGE NURSING CENTER	2.7%	93.5	B	LA	HAYNESVILLE	82	—
998	WELSH HOME THE	2.7%	93.5	A	OH	ROCKY RIVER	79	—
999	I O O F Home and Community Therapy Center	2.7%	93.5	C	IA	Mason City	82	—
1000	Denver Sunset Home	2.7%	93.5	A	IA	Denver	31	—

Showing 951–1,000 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.