Composite
0.4 / 100 percentile
Screener / 495374
A
NORTON COMMUNITY HOSPITAL SNF UNIT
snfVA
100 15TH ST NW, NORTON, VA 24273 · CCN 495374 · chain BALLAD HEALTH
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
44
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 0.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing12Penalties0Deficiencies21Licensure0Ownership24Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent33
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 18.6 | 12.1 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 7.97 | in index |
| chow risk | 1.0 | 16.9 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 0.21 | in index |
| staffing risk | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 0.18 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 16.9 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 2.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 12.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 0.6 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 12.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 12.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 0.6 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 0.6 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
1.7%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
66.5
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.16 | +1.55 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 7.26 | -0.84 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
2.8%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
93.8
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.16 | +2.46 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 7.26 | -1.70 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 1.63 | +0.73 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 6.00 | +0.32 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.30 | -0.14 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
12| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | VA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 7.26 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 3.32 | 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 7.88 | 2.96 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 7.05 | 3.20 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 7.2 | 7.26 | 3.32 | 0.49 | 3.45 | 7.88 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 7.4 | 7.26 | 3.26 | 0.76 | 3.24 | 7.06 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 8.1 | 6.20 | 2.96 | 0.32 | 2.93 | 6.10 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 9.8 | 5.57 | 2.52 | 0.56 | 2.50 | 5.37 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 9.7 | 5.64 | 2.19 | 0.93 | 2.52 | 5.20 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 6.9 | 6.81 | 2.46 | 1.47 | 2.88 | 6.17 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 6.1 | 7.36 | 2.95 | 0.95 | 3.46 | 7.12 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 6.9 | 4.15 | 3.25 | 0.90 | 0.00 | 3.78 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 6.0 | 5.92 | 2.81 | 1.92 | 1.20 | 5.91 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 11.6 | 5.94 | 1.03 | 1.76 | 3.15 | 5.71 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 25.2 | 3.77 | 0.73 | 1.15 | 1.89 | 3.78 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 25.0 | 3.76 | 0.75 | 1.19 | 1.82 | 3.76 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21D × 19F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-12 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-02-12 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-02-12 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2026-02-13 |
| 2026-02-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2026-02-16 |
| 2026-02-12 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2026-02-25 |
| 2026-02-12 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | G | 2026-02-25 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2021-06-18 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2021-06-18 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2021-06-18 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2021-06-18 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2021-06-18 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | D | 2021-06-18 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2021-06-18 |
| 2021-04-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2021-06-18 |
| 2018-09-06 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-06 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-06 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-06 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-06 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-06 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2018-10-05 |
| 2018-09-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2018-10-05 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WELLMONT HEALTH SYSTEM | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2007-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BALLAD HEALTH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BENNETT, JULIE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2023-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DEATON, BUFORD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EICHORN, MARVIN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HILTON, SHANE | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-04-04 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LEVINE, ALAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEWBERRY, BRIAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2004-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEWBERRY, BRIAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHOWALTER, SHANNON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHOWALTER, SHANNON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-04-26 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WELLMONT HEALTH SYSTEM | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2004-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WILGOCKI, GREGORY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2018-02-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BALLAD HEALTH | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ALAN LEVINE | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BUFORD DEATON | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GREGORY WILGOCKI | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JULIE BENNETT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2023-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARVIN EICHORN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2018-02-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SHANE HILTON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2024-04-04 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRIAN NEWBERRY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRIAN NEWBERRY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2004-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SHANNON SHOWALTER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2021-04-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SHANNON SHOWALTER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — VA snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-01 | Woodstock Valley Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 88 | 803 SOUTH MAIN STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Jamestown Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 90 | 1811 JAMESTOWN ROAD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Windsor Grove Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 114 | 23352 COURTHOUSE HIGHWAY OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Grayson Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | 400 SOUTH INDEPENDENCE AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | SKYLINE NURSING & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 90 | 237 FRANKLIN PIKE ROAD SE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | KINGS DAUGHTERS COMMUNITY HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 117 | 1410 NORTH AUGUSTA STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | Ghent Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 222 | 3900 LLEWELLYN AVENUE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-06-01 | ASHLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 190 | 906 THOMPSON STREET OPCO LLC |
| 2025-05-19 | The Boulevard Post Acute | — | — | — | 81 | BOULEVARD OPERATOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | FRANCIS MARION MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 109 | FRANCIS MARION OPERATING GROUP LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | POPLAR HILL HEALTH AND REHAB | — | — | — | 113 | FAUQUIER OPCO LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING | — | — | — | 120 | NORTHERN CARDINAL REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 51195 | acs median gross | 0 | $259 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51195 | fmr | 0 | $692 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51195 | acs median gross | 1 | $452 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51195 | fmr | 1 | $697 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51195 | acs median gross | 2 | $750 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51195 | fmr | 2 | $914 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51195 | acs median gross | 3 | $866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51195 | fmr | 3 | $1,205 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51195 | acs median gross | 4 | $770 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51195 | fmr | 4 | $1,429 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 51195 | acs median gross | 5 | $869 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 51195 | acs median gross | $790 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 51195 | acs recent mover gross | $646 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 24273 | acs median gross | 1 | $330 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24273 | acs median gross | 2 | $726 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24273 | acs median gross | 3 | $929 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 24273 | acs median gross | $696 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 24273 | acs recent mover gross | $638 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $803 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $657 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | safmr | 0 | $730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $803 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $657 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | safmr | 1 | $730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,056 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $864 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | safmr | 2 | $960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,397 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,143 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | safmr | 3 | $1,270 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 24273 | safmr | 4 | $1,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.