Reads as: riskier than 30.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MORGAN DANIEL
10 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.19
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.06
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.23
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.2
3.19
0.23
1.18
1.78
3.06
0.0%
2025Q3
92
86.5
3.22
0.28
1.17
1.77
3.09
0.0%
2025Q2
91
86.6
3.29
0.25
1.20
1.84
3.07
0.0%
2025Q1
90
87.4
3.17
0.29
1.18
1.70
3.03
0.0%
2024Q4
92
85.3
3.18
0.25
1.17
1.75
2.94
0.0%
2024Q3
92
85.1
3.26
0.29
1.19
1.79
2.94
0.0%
2024Q2
91
85.4
3.20
0.41
1.05
1.74
2.98
0.0%
2024Q1
91
87.1
3.08
0.33
1.12
1.63
2.88
0.0%
2023Q4
92
87.1
3.20
0.42
1.26
1.51
2.84
0.0%
2023Q3
92
88.1
3.13
0.32
1.11
1.70
2.78
0.0%
2023Q2
91
86.9
3.10
0.32
1.08
1.70
2.77
0.0%
2023Q1
90
86.1
2.63
0.34
0.90
1.39
2.35
0.0%
2022Q4
92
84.3
2.36
0.25
0.86
1.25
2.13
0.0%
2022Q3
92
81.0
2.53
0.20
1.05
1.28
2.47
21.8%
2022Q2
91
83.6
2.50
0.24
1.05
1.21
2.39
25.8%
2022Q1
90
80.7
2.27
0.34
0.89
1.03
2.16
9.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
29
B × 2D × 23E × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-06-03
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-06-03
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-06-03
2024-04-25
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2024-06-03
2024-04-25
Health
F0807
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration.
D
2024-06-03
2024-04-25
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2024-06-03
2022-05-12
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
E
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2022-06-28
2022-05-12
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
E
2022-06-15
2022-05-12
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2022-06-15
2020-03-05
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
B
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
B
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2020-04-14
2020-03-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2020-04-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WILLIAMSBURG PARENTCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, SEBASTIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOBACK, TIFFANY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES CITY HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, TEQUILLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
REID, LORI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF MGR LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
SNF MGR LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
VAOP HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
WALTERS, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNF CARE CENTERS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZENITH HOLDCO II LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZENITH HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NU C II IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NU C IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL MORGAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI REID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT WALTERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEBASTIAN ADAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEQUILLA JONES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIFFANY HOBACK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$464,843
—
—
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$421,765
—
—
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$392,884
—
—
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$405,345
—
—
—
—
5
—
2020-12-31
$379,241
—
—
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 51095
acs median gross
0
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51095
fmr
0
$1,492
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51095
acs median gross
1
$1,396
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51095
fmr
1
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51095
acs median gross
2
$1,442
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51095
fmr
2
$1,713
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51095
acs median gross
3
$1,770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51095
fmr
3
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51095
acs median gross
4
$2,403
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51095
fmr
4
$2,797
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51095
acs median gross
$1,552
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51095
acs recent mover gross
$2,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
0
$921
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
1
$1,303
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
2
$1,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
3
$1,858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
4
$2,255
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
5
$1,869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs median gross
$1,489
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 23185
acs recent mover gross
$1,777
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 23185
payment standard 110
0
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
0
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
0
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
1
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
1
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
1
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
3
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
3
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
3
$2,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 110
4
$3,234
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
payment standard 90
4
$2,646
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 23185
safmr
4
$2,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.