3026 MOUNT HOPE HOME ROAD, MANHEIM, PA 17545 · CCN 396119
Composite
6.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
50
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 6.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.38
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.54
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.31
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
48.8
3.38
0.28
1.04
2.06
3.54
21.2%
2025Q3
92
49.4
3.37
0.26
1.05
2.06
3.44
18.5%
2025Q2
91
49.5
3.76
0.25
1.16
2.35
3.58
15.9%
2025Q1
90
48.6
3.51
0.25
1.09
2.17
3.57
17.8%
2024Q4
92
48.4
3.79
0.22
1.23
2.34
3.70
25.1%
2024Q3
92
48.9
3.42
0.27
1.04
2.10
3.61
26.2%
2024Q2
91
48.5
3.64
0.43
1.07
2.13
3.62
26.2%
2024Q1
91
48.5
3.55
0.36
1.09
2.10
3.55
19.8%
2023Q4
92
46.9
3.73
0.36
1.21
2.16
3.68
24.3%
2023Q3
92
47.3
3.84
0.33
1.11
2.40
3.55
41.4%
2023Q2
91
47.9
3.26
0.25
0.90
2.11
3.27
24.3%
2023Q1
90
47.0
3.38
0.22
0.82
2.33
3.28
26.1%
2022Q4
92
47.8
3.46
0.21
0.93
2.33
3.37
30.6%
2022Q3
92
46.8
3.42
0.22
0.94
2.26
3.38
22.2%
2022Q2
91
46.3
3.22
0.32
0.94
1.97
3.02
18.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
D × 7E × 7
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-09-05
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-10-04
2024-09-05
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-10-04
2023-11-02
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-12-05
2023-11-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-12-05
2022-11-16
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-12-20
2022-11-16
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
E
2022-12-20
2022-11-16
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
E
2022-12-30
2022-11-16
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2022-12-20
2022-11-16
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-01-05
2022-11-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-12-15
2022-11-16
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2022-12-30
2022-11-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-01-14
2022-11-16
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2022-12-24
2022-11-16
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
E
2022-12-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
45
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
EPHRATA CHURCH OF THE NAZARENE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
60%
2006-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAFRELLI, STEVEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FILLMORE, DEBBIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2006-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
FILLMORE, DEBBIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
FILLMORE, DEBBIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAMBRICK, ROCKLIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
LOVELL, SUSIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-08-24
current
pecos_ownership
LOVELL, SUSIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-22
current
pecos_ownership
LUCAS, JOANNA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2006-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUCAS, JOANNA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, LEON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
MAXIM, MARINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
MAXIM, MARINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-04-26
current
pecos_ownership
PECK, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-02
current
pecos_ownership
SNYDER, CHARLYN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
SNYDER, CHARLYN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNYDER, KEVIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
current
pecos_ownership
STEHR, JOANNE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
STERNER, JEFF
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-02-09
current
pecos_ownership
STERNER, JEFF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
TORNABE, MICHELE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-03-12
current
pecos_ownership
TORNABE, MICHELE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
WICKENHEISER, THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-29
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLYN SNYDER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-07-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLYN SNYDER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBBIE FILLMORE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBBIE FILLMORE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBBIE FILLMORE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2006-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFF STERNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFF STERNER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOANNA LUCAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2006-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOANNA LUCAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2006-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOANNE STEHR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN SNYDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEON MARTIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-01-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARINA MAXIM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARINA MAXIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-04-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL PECK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-10-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE TORNABE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-03-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE TORNABE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-04-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROCKLIN HAMBRICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-08-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN CAFRELLI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSIE LOVELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-08-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSIE LOVELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-08-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS WICKENHEISER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42071
acs median gross
0
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
0
$1,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
1
$1,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
1
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
2
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
2
$1,526
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
3
$1,544
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
3
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
4
$1,540
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
4
$2,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
5
$1,503
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
acs median gross
$1,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
acs recent mover gross
$1,490
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17545
acs median gross
1
$965
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17545
acs median gross
2
$1,272
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17545
acs median gross
3
$1,402
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17545
acs median gross
4
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17545
acs median gross
$1,314
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17545
acs recent mover gross
$1,133
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 17545
payment standard 110
0
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 90
0
$999
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
safmr
0
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 110
1
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 90
1
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
safmr
1
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 110
2
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 90
2
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
safmr
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 110
3
$2,189
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 90
3
$1,791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
safmr
3
$1,990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 110
4
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
payment standard 90
4
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17545
safmr
4
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.