Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,701–2,750

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2701	PILGRIM MANOR	0.7%	82.3	A	CT	CROMWELL	60	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
2702	DESTINATION HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	82.3	D	FL	DESTIN	119	—
2703	CRESTLINE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.7%	82.3	A	OH	CRESTLINE	30	—
2704	EASTWOOD MANOR	0.7%	82.3	F	OK	COMMERCE	80	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
2705	Prestige Care Center of Fairfield	0.7%	82.3	C	IA	Fairfield	73	—
2706	Southern Pointe Living Center	0.7%	82.3	C	OK	Colbert	95	TIFFANY SEAY EXEMPT TR
2707	Foxdale Village	0.7%	82.3	A	PA	STATE COLLEGE	46	MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
2708	MAYERS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.7%	82.3	A	CA	FALL RIVER MILLS	99	MAYERS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2709	BERKELEY NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.7%	82.3	D	IL	OAK PARK	72	—
2710	Meadow Manor	0.7%	82.3	B	MN	GRAND MEADOW	26	—
2711	ST WILLIAMS LIVING CENTER	0.7%	82.3	A	MN	PARKERS PRAIRIE	53	—
2712	ADAMS WOODCREST	0.7%	82.3	B	IN	DECATUR	143	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2713	BADGER PRAIRIE HCC	0.7%	82.3	A	WI	VERONA	120	—
2714	ST CABRINI NURSING HOME	0.7%	82.2	A	NY	DOBBS FERRY	304	HEALTHPRO HERITAGE LLC
2715	WONDER CITY REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.7%	82.2	D	VA	HOPEWELL	130	—
2716	NEIGHBORS - WEST NEIGHBORHOOD (THE)	0.7%	82.2	A	WI	MENOMONIE	46	COUNTY OF DUNN
2717	TRANSCENDENT HEALTHCARE OF OWENSVILLE	0.7%	82.2	D	IN	OWENSVILLE	68	MAJOR HOSPITAL
2718	SWAIM HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	82.2	C	PA	NEWVILLE	67	PHI
2719	Eventide Lincoln Care Center	0.7%	82.2	B	NE	Lincoln	197	EVENTIDE
2720	SHARP CHULA VISTA MED CTR SNF	0.7%	82.2	B	CA	CHULA VISTA	100	SHARP HEALTHCARE
2721	Saint Anne Extended Healthcare	0.7%	82.2	B	MN	WINONA	103	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
2722	ISLAND NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.7%	82.2	C	NY	HOLTSVILLE	120	GURWIN HEALTHCARE SYSTEM INC
2723	EMORY L BENNETT MEMORIAL VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.7%	82.2	A	FL	DAYTONA BEACH	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
2724	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - ATWOOD	0.7%	82.2	B	KS	ATWOOD	35	SANFORD
2725	Crestwood Nursing & Rehabilitation Center Inc	0.7%	82.2	A	RI	Warren	76	—
2726	MARYMOUNT MANOR	0.7%	82.2	C	MO	EUREKA	174	RILEY SPENCE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2727	ARTESIAN HOME	0.7%	82.2	B	OK	SULPHUR	72	ELMBROOK PROPERTIES INC
2728	Greenfield Health & Rehab Center	0.7%	82.2	A	NY	LANCASTER	160	—
2729	LAFAYETTE MANOR	0.7%	82.2	B	WI	DARLINGTON	50	—
2730	CRESCENT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.7%	82.2	C	FL	SARASOTA	140	—
2731	CRESTPARK STUTTGART, LLC	0.7%	82.2	C	AR	STUTTGART	100	BELEW LLC
2732	LIVING COMMUNITY OF ST JOSEPH	0.7%	82.2	B	MO	SAINT JOSEPH	96	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
2733	Mount Olivet Careview Home	0.7%	82.2	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	155	—
2734	AYDEN HEALTHCARE OF ROSEMOUNT PAVILION	0.7%	82.2	B	OH	PORTSMOUTH	117	—
2735	CHENEY CARE CENTER	0.7%	82.2	C	WA	CHENEY	54	—
2736	POMPERAUG WOODS HEALTH CENTER	0.7%	82.2	B	CT	SOUTHBURY	37	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2737	UPSTATE UNIVERSITY HOSP AT COMMUNITY GENERAL T C U	0.7%	82.2	A	NY	SYRACUSE	20	—
2738	THE MERIDIAN	0.7%	82.2	B	TX	GALVESTON	0	—
2739	Kendal At Longwood	0.7%	82.2	A	PA	KENNETT SQUARE	53	—
2740	OUR LADYS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	0.7%	82.2	C	NJ	PLEASANTVILLE	214	—
2741	South Haven Living Center	0.7%	82.0	A	NE	Wahoo	85	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
2742	ADVENTIST HEALTH DELANO	0.7%	82.0	B	CA	DELANO	51	—
2743	DAWSON PLACE	0.7%	82.0	B	KS	HILL CITY	36	—
2744	TRI-COMMUNITY NURSING CENTER	0.7%	82.0	A	LA	PALMETTO	108	—
2745	FRANKFORT TERRACE	0.7%	82.0	D	IL	FRANKFORT	120	—
2746	PARKSIDE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.7%	82.0	B	OH	COLUMBIANA	75	—
2747	OSAGE NURSING HOME, LLC	0.7%	82.0	B	OK	NOWATA	50	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
2748	AZALEALAND NURSING HOME	0.7%	82.0	B	GA	SAVANNAH	107	—
2749	SUITES AT HOLLY CREEK CARE CENTER, THE	0.7%	82.0	A	CO	CENTENNIAL	25	CHRISTIAN LIVING NEIGHBORHOODS
2750	Renvilla Health Center	0.7%	82.0	B	MN	RENVILLE	38	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC

Showing 2,701–2,750 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.