Reads as: riskier than 48.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
56% fined
BRUHN JENNIFER
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
THOMPSON WILLIAM
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.34
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.61
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.12
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.43
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.7
3.34
0.61
0.60
2.13
3.12
15.3%
2025Q3
92
84.3
3.34
0.62
0.70
2.02
3.04
7.1%
2025Q2
91
84.4
3.36
0.64
0.61
2.11
3.06
7.9%
2025Q1
90
82.5
3.35
0.66
0.69
2.00
3.03
6.9%
2024Q4
92
79.6
3.57
0.54
0.84
2.19
3.33
8.3%
2024Q3
92
81.9
3.32
0.54
0.70
2.08
3.03
3.3%
2024Q2
91
84.6
3.09
0.49
0.70
1.90
2.91
0.5%
2024Q1
91
83.7
3.21
0.48
0.76
1.96
2.94
2.6%
2023Q4
92
82.9
3.30
0.52
0.84
1.94
3.06
3.2%
2023Q3
92
81.1
3.28
0.63
0.74
1.91
2.96
2.1%
2023Q2
91
83.1
3.41
0.72
0.70
1.99
3.05
4.9%
2023Q1
90
77.6
3.55
0.67
0.85
2.03
3.24
6.8%
2022Q4
92
74.0
3.33
0.62
0.71
2.00
2.96
1.7%
2022Q3
92
78.5
3.30
0.51
0.78
2.00
2.92
0.0%
2022Q2
91
79.8
3.40
0.56
0.83
2.02
3.04
0.0%
2022Q1
90
84.6
3.30
0.51
0.80
1.99
3.09
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-03-19
2025-02-13
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-13
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-13
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-03-19
2025-02-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-03-19
2025-02-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-19
2024-11-04
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-08-15
2024-05-15
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-05-30
2023-12-14
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-01-17
2023-12-14
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-01-17
2023-12-14
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2024-01-17
2023-12-14
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-01-17
2023-12-14
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-01-17
2023-12-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-01-17
2023-12-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-01-17
2023-12-14
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
E
2024-01-17
2023-10-31
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-11-30
2023-10-31
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-11-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAER, MEGAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-06
current
pecos_ownership
BAER, MEGAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1997-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERGIEN, TRICIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
BITTNER, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRUHN, JENNIFER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-25
current
pecos_ownership
DEMARAIS, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
EHLINGER, CAROL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-08-02
current
pecos_ownership
ERWIN, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORSYTH, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KILKUS, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAREK, PATRICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-24
current
pecos_ownership
RYMANOWSKI, KEVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STELMAN, JOAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAROL EHLINGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2019-08-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BITTNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ERWIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER BRUHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2019-11-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN STELMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN RYMANOWSKI
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK MAREK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-01-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL KILKUS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS DEMARAIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRICIA BERGIEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2017-07-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM THOMPSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER FORSYTH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEGAN BAER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEGAN BAER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$859,849
—
—
$31,646
$73,141
1
—
2024-06-30
$793,862
—
—
$23,746
$71,518
1
—
2023-06-30
$712,578
—
—
$29,777
$72,198
1
—
2022-06-30
$703,357
—
—
$20,696
$78,137
1
—
2021-06-30
$785,773
—
—
$27,269
$73,710
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27169
acs median gross
0
$814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27169
fmr
0
$791
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27169
acs median gross
1
$745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27169
fmr
1
$868
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27169
acs median gross
2
$973
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27169
fmr
2
$1,066
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27169
acs median gross
3
$1,060
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27169
fmr
3
$1,336
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27169
acs median gross
4
$1,302
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27169
fmr
4
$1,543
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27169
acs median gross
5
$981
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27169
acs median gross
$907
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27169
acs recent mover gross
$938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55987
acs median gross
0
$692
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55987
acs median gross
1
$734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55987
acs median gross
2
$979
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55987
acs median gross
3
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55987
acs median gross
4
$1,308
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55987
acs median gross
$899
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55987
acs recent mover gross
$935
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 55987
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 110
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 90
1
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
safmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 110
2
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 90
2
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
safmr
2
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 110
3
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 90
3
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
safmr
3
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 110
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
payment standard 90
4
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55987
safmr
4
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.