621 SOUTH 4TH STREET, LE SUEUR, MN 56058 · CCN 245416 · chain TF MANAGEMENT LLC
Composite
55.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
50
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 55.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.26
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.65
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.75
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.46
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
24.9
4.26
1.65
0.16
2.46
3.75
0.0%
2025Q3
92
25.4
5.41
1.62
0.36
3.44
4.21
0.0%
2025Q2
91
24.2
4.97
1.10
0.78
3.10
4.24
0.0%
2025Q1
90
24.5
4.82
1.21
0.77
2.83
4.41
1.6%
2024Q4
92
24.8
5.06
1.24
0.82
3.01
4.62
0.0%
2024Q3
92
25.3
4.73
0.91
0.78
3.05
4.35
0.0%
2024Q2
91
22.7
5.38
0.81
0.88
3.69
4.96
0.0%
2024Q1
91
22.8
4.81
0.73
0.77
3.31
4.76
0.0%
2023Q4
92
24.8
4.84
0.49
0.80
3.55
4.92
0.0%
2023Q3
92
22.4
5.23
0.77
0.77
3.69
5.24
0.0%
2023Q2
91
21.8
5.04
0.77
1.08
3.19
4.84
0.0%
2023Q1
90
22.9
3.55
0.69
0.77
2.10
3.38
0.0%
2022Q4
92
21.5
3.89
0.65
0.75
2.50
3.73
0.0%
2022Q3
92
22.5
4.11
0.60
0.72
2.79
3.81
0.0%
2022Q2
91
20.4
4.54
0.84
0.76
2.94
4.23
0.0%
2022Q1
90
20.7
4.14
0.91
0.69
2.54
3.89
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2026-04-03
2026-02-24
Health
F0576
Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods.
C
2026-04-03
2026-02-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-04-03
2026-02-24
Health · complaint
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
D
2026-04-03
2025-05-01
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-06-11
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
D
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2025-03-16
2025-01-16
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
E
2025-03-16
2024-10-03
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
J
2024-10-02
2024-10-03
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-11-01
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-06-15
2024-05-02
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-06-15
2024-03-27
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-05-28
2024-03-27
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2024-05-28
2024-03-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-05-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CURA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
FRED STRUZYK / TOM OPATZ
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-06-05
current
hcris_a_8_1
FRED STRUZYK / TOM OPATZ
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CLUKA, MIRANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DIRKES, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
KOENING, JONATHON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
MOLITOR, DAVE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
MOLITOR, DAVE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
OPATZ, TOM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
STELTER, CAROLYN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
STELTER, CAROLYN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
STRUZYK, FRED
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
TF MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
TF MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
CURA OF LE SUEUR LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-05
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
FRED STRUZYK
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2023-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM OPATZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2023-06-05
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
MARK DIRKES
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROLYN STELTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROLYN STELTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVE MOLITOR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVE MOLITOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHON KOENING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIRANDA CLUKA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$268,549
$42,000
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$146,834
$24,500
—
—
—
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27079
acs median gross
0
$819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27079
fmr
0
$816
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27079
acs median gross
1
$815
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27079
fmr
1
$822
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27079
acs median gross
2
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27079
fmr
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27079
acs median gross
3
$1,219
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27079
fmr
3
$1,499
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27079
acs median gross
4
$1,317
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27079
fmr
4
$1,748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27079
acs median gross
5
$1,694
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27079
acs median gross
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27079
acs recent mover gross
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56058
acs median gross
1
$750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56058
acs median gross
2
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56058
acs median gross
3
$1,732
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56058
acs median gross
4
$2,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56058
acs median gross
$907
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 56058
acs recent mover gross
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 56058
payment standard 110
0
$957
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 90
0
$783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
safmr
0
$870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 110
1
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 90
1
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
safmr
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 110
3
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 90
3
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
safmr
3
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 110
4
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
payment standard 90
4
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 56058
safmr
4
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.