Composite
24.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 79.8 | 76.4 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 34.20 | in index |
| chow risk | 16.4 | 24.5 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 3.51 | in index |
| staffing risk | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 0.71 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 24.5 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 76.4 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 2.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 76.3 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 76.3 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.1 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 2.1 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.62 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.31 | +0.39 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.62 | -1.01 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | +0.56 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.93 | +0.41 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Occupancy | 0.68 | +0.28 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.31 | +0.26 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 5.62 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 5.19 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.79 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 67.5 | 5.62 | 0.35 | 1.24 | 4.03 | 5.19 | 31.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 67.5 | 4.90 | 0.32 | 1.19 | 3.39 | 4.19 | 20.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 73.8 | 5.45 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 3.63 | 4.92 | 36.2% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 76.6 | 4.78 | 0.36 | 1.19 | 3.23 | 4.29 | 34.6% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 78.3 | 4.68 | 0.42 | 1.13 | 3.13 | 4.29 | 35.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 77.7 | 4.64 | 0.39 | 1.14 | 3.11 | 4.00 | 36.8% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 77.5 | 4.47 | 0.32 | 1.26 | 2.89 | 4.06 | 36.8% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 79.8 | 3.52 | 0.30 | 0.42 | 2.80 | 3.52 | 26.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 78.3 | 4.45 | 0.35 | 1.24 | 2.85 | 4.10 | 43.2% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 77.9 | 4.62 | 0.34 | 1.28 | 2.99 | 4.10 | 37.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 83.2 | 2.85 | 0.14 | 0.42 | 2.29 | 2.63 | 0.7% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 75.6 | 3.88 | 0.21 | 1.10 | 2.56 | 3.44 | 35.9% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 74.8 | 4.56 | 0.17 | 1.28 | 3.10 | 4.16 | 29.5% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 72.7 | 4.36 | 0.15 | 1.43 | 2.78 | 4.03 | 34.8% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-14 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-20 | Fine | $62,258 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-12-20 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | D | 2026-05-19 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2025-09-07 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2025-09-07 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-08-09 |
| 2025-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-08-09 |
| 2025-05-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-05-27 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-05-27 | Health · complaint | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-06-30 |
| 2025-04-14 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2025-05-28 |
| 2025-01-30 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-03-01 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2024-11-20 |
| 2024-09-13 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-10-31 |
| 2024-05-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-05-09 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-05-09 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-05-09 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-05-09 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-05-09 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | D | 2024-05-23 |
| 2023-12-20 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | K | 2024-02-02 |
| 2023-11-02 | Health · complaint | F0557 | Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions. | D | 2023-12-18 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | D | 2023-06-05 |
| 2023-05-05 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-06-05 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAYERS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARRIS, RYAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LAKEY, TRAVIS | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2009-11-23 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OVERTON, THERESA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-10-05 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN HARRIS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THERESA OVERTON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-10-05 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TRAVIS LAKEY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2009-11-23 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06089 | acs median gross | 0 | $987 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06089 | fmr | 0 | $1,172 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06089 | acs median gross | 1 | $917 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06089 | fmr | 1 | $1,212 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06089 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,270 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06089 | fmr | 2 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06089 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,755 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06089 | fmr | 3 | $2,211 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06089 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,224 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06089 | fmr | 4 | $2,667 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06089 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,585 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06089 | acs median gross | $1,317 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06089 | acs recent mover gross | $1,620 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 96028 | acs median gross | 2 | $956 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 96028 | acs median gross | $984 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,053 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | safmr | 0 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,331 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | safmr | 1 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,749 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | safmr | 2 | $1,590 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,431 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,989 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | safmr | 3 | $2,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,937 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,403 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 96028 | safmr | 4 | $2,670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |