Reads as: riskier than 1.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
RKL LLP
52 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.39
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.66
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.12
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.50
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
42.3
5.39
0.66
1.57
3.17
5.12
18.5%
2025Q3
92
39.9
5.35
0.72
1.60
3.03
5.08
17.9%
2025Q2
91
41.4
5.03
0.67
1.52
2.84
4.83
5.2%
2025Q1
90
40.0
5.39
0.87
1.60
2.91
5.10
0.0%
2024Q4
92
42.0
5.11
0.79
1.51
2.82
4.90
0.0%
2024Q3
92
43.5
4.89
0.64
1.47
2.78
4.79
0.0%
2024Q2
91
41.7
5.16
0.65
1.50
3.02
5.05
1.0%
2024Q1
91
44.2
4.90
0.60
1.47
2.83
4.79
6.6%
2023Q4
92
44.8
4.98
0.58
1.46
2.93
4.93
10.8%
2023Q3
92
43.4
4.85
0.67
1.36
2.82
4.75
8.8%
2023Q2
91
41.8
5.02
0.73
1.43
2.86
4.97
2.6%
2023Q1
90
43.1
5.11
0.83
1.44
2.84
4.88
3.4%
2022Q4
92
43.5
4.97
0.70
1.35
2.92
4.83
2.5%
2022Q3
92
43.1
4.91
0.80
1.24
2.87
4.68
2.5%
2022Q2
91
42.5
4.69
0.68
1.31
2.70
4.55
0.0%
2022Q1
90
42.7
4.84
0.81
1.17
2.86
4.66
4.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-12-20
2024-11-01
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-12-20
2024-11-01
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2024-12-20
2024-11-01
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2024-12-20
2024-11-01
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-12-20
2024-11-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-12-20
2024-01-23
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-02-08
2022-12-02
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2022-12-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
50
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADVANTAGE CARE REHABILITATION, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-24
current
pecos_ownership
ADVANTAGE CARE REHABILITATION, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
AROCENA, LORNA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
BLUME, GLENDON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRADLEY, BROSI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-08-17
current
pecos_ownership
CAREY, TAMA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
CLOUSER, MARGARET
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
COOK, LAURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
EATON, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARMER, ERIC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1999-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LORAIN NATIONAL BANK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
LORAIN NATIONAL BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
MARSHALL, PETER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, KEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOOSE, MARGARET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, EMMA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NICHOLAS, ROB
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CHURCH RISK RETENTION GROUP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CHURCH RISK RETENTION GROUP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
RESKO, BETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
RKL LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-12
current
pecos_ownership
RKL LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-17
current
pecos_ownership
RONAN, BRENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1999-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHRACK, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEPICH, RODNEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-03-08
current
pecos_ownership
SHADE, JEANNINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
SHUGHART, DEBORAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-24
current
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH SHUGHART
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-09-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAMA CAREY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-09-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH RESKO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENT RONAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1999-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BROSI BRADLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-08-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMMA MYERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC FARMER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GLENDON BLUME
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEANNINE SHADE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEN MARTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA COOK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORNA AROCENA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET CLOUSER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET MOOSE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY EATON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PETER MARSHALL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROB NICHOLAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RODNEY SEPICH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-03-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS SCHRACK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42027
acs median gross
0
$1,166
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42027
fmr
0
$1,187
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42027
acs median gross
1
$986
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42027
fmr
1
$1,194
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42027
acs median gross
2
$1,237
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42027
fmr
2
$1,406
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42027
acs median gross
3
$1,439
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42027
fmr
3
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42027
acs median gross
4
$1,343
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42027
fmr
4
$1,862
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42027
acs median gross
5
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42027
acs median gross
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42027
acs recent mover gross
$1,206
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs median gross
0
$1,154
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs median gross
1
$1,086
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs median gross
2
$1,314
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs median gross
3
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs median gross
4
$1,821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs median gross
5
$2,162
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs median gross
$1,264
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16801
acs recent mover gross
$1,269
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 16801
payment standard 110
0
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 90
0
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
safmr
0
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 110
1
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 90
1
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
safmr
1
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 110
2
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 90
2
$1,359
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
safmr
2
$1,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 110
3
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 90
3
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
safmr
3
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 110
4
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
payment standard 90
4
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16801
safmr
4
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.