Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,051–2,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2051	YUBA CITY POST ACUTE	4.7%	87.8	A	CA	YUBA CITY	59	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2052	VIRGIL REHABILITATION & SKILLED NURSING CENTER	4.7%	87.8	C	CA	LOS ANGELES	124	—
2053	PROMEDICA SKILLED NURSING & REHAB AT METROHEALTH	4.7%	87.8	D	OH	CLEVELAND	0	—
2054	CLARK MANOR	4.7%	87.8	A	IL	CHICAGO	267	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
2055	SOUTHERN OCEAN CENTER	4.7%	87.8	B	NJ	MANAHAWKIN	136	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2056	NORTH LAS VEGAS CARE CENTER	4.7%	87.8	B	NV	NORTH LAS VEGAS	182	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
2057	CareOne at New Milford	4.7%	87.8	F	NJ	NEW MILFORD	236	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2058	HILLTOP CENTER	4.7%	87.8	C	WV	HILLTOP	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2059	THE WATERS OF SHELBYVILLE, LLC	4.7%	87.8	A	TN	SHELBYVILLE	96	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
2060	Brookside Healthcare Center	4.7%	87.8	A	CA	Redlands	97	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2061	KENWOOD VLGE NRSG AND RHB CTR	4.7%	87.8	F	IL	CHICAGO	155	NATHAN AND SHIRLEY ROTHNER FAMILY TRUST
2062	CANTERBURY VILLA OF ALLIANCE	4.7%	87.8	A	OH	ALLIANCE	82	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2063	Yampa Valley Healthcare Center	4.7%	87.8	D	CO	CRAIG	58	—
2064	EVERVELLA OF SWANSEA	4.7%	87.8	D	IL	SWANSEA	120	—
2065	LAURELS OF DEFIANCE THE	4.7%	87.8	B	OH	DEFIANCE	107	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2066	HICKORY CREEK AT MADISON	4.7%	87.8	A	IN	MADISON	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
2067	Northwest Healthcare Center	4.7%	87.8	C	MD	BALTIMORE	91	RRW LLC
2068	Rockcastle Health & Rehabilitation Center	4.7%	87.8	F	KY	Brodhead	104	WHEATEN LLC
2069	PRUITTHEALTH - DECATUR	4.7%	87.8	C	GA	DECATUR	146	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2070	Regency at Waterford	4.7%	87.8	C	MI	Waterford	150	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2071	STUDIO CITY REHABILITATION CENTER	4.6%	87.7	B	CA	STUDIO CITY	181	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
2072	PRAIRIE CROSSING LVG & REHAB	4.6%	87.7	C	IL	SHABBONA	91	MOMENTUM HEALTHCARE LLC
2073	Mesa Glen Care Center	4.6%	87.7	B	CA	GLENDORA	96	RENEW HEALTH CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
2074	SPRINGHILL SENIOR RESIDENCE	4.6%	87.7	B	AL	MOBILE	151	—
2075	Spanish Fork Rehabilitation and Nursing	4.6%	87.7	C	UT	Spanish Fork	45	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
2076	Las Colinas Post Acute	4.6%	87.7	B	CA	Ontario	216	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2077	Kauai Care Center	4.6%	87.7	A	HI	Waimea	53	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
2078	INLAND VALLEY CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.6%	87.7	D	CA	POMONA	221	RENEW HEALTH CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
2079	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT CHESHIRE	4.6%	87.7	A	CT	CHESHIRE	120	ESNH LLC
2080	PRUITTHEALTH-NORTH TAMPA, LLC	4.6%	87.7	C	FL	LUTZ	90	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2081	ARBOR SPRINGS HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER, LTD	4.6%	87.7	B	AL	OPELIKA	225	TRAYLOR PORTER HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
2082	BROOKDALE SANTA CATALINA	4.6%	87.7	A	AZ	TUCSON	42	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
2083	ALEXANDRIA CARE CENTER	4.6%	87.7	A	CA	LOS ANGELES	177	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2084	Accura Healthcare of Ogden, LLC	4.6%	87.6	A	IA	Ogden	46	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2085	MONTEREY PARK REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.6%	87.6	C	MO	INDEPENDENCE	122	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2086	NORTHWOOD REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.6%	87.6	F	MA	LOWELL	123	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
2087	PU'UWAI 'O MAKAHA	4.6%	87.6	B	HI	WAIANAE	93	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
2088	EUNICE MANOR	4.6%	87.6	B	LA	EUNICE	152	—
2089	MCCLURE POST ACUTE	4.6%	87.6	A	CA	OAKLAND	60	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2090	CARE ONE AT BROOKLINE	4.6%	87.6	C	MA	BROOKLINE	120	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2091	AdviniaCare Newport, LLC	4.6%	87.6	C	RI	Newport	114	ATHENA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATES INC
2092	CENTERBURG POINTE	4.6%	87.6	B	OH	CENTERBURG	76	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2093	CAMPBELL HALL REHABILITATION CENTER INC	4.6%	87.6	C	NY	CAMPBELL HALL	134	—
2094	St. Johnsbury Health & Rehab	4.6%	87.6	C	VT	Saint Johnsbury	99	—
2095	CREST HAVEN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.6%	87.6	C	NJ	CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE	180	—
2096	Accura Healthcare of Cherokee, LLC	4.6%	87.6	A	IA	Cherokee	44	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2097	NHC HEALTHCARE, BRISTOL	4.6%	87.6	C	VA	BRISTOL	120	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
2098	SMITH CENTER HEALTH AND REHAB	4.6%	87.6	C	KS	SMITH CENTER	45	BARRES LLC
2099	KINDER RETIREMENT AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.6%	87.6	B	LA	KINDER	100	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
2100	JAMES RIVER NURSING AND REHABILITATION	4.6%	87.6	C	MO	SPRINGFIELD	120	RHC OPERATIONS INC

Showing 2,051–2,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.