Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,101–2,150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2101	Walnut Grove Care & Rehab Center	4.6%	87.6	C	OK	McAlester	80	JFB OK TRUST
2102	COLONIAL CARE CENTER	4.6%	87.6	B	CA	LONG BEACH	196	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
2103	BRADLEY HEALTH CARE & REHAB	4.6%	87.6	C	TN	CLEVELAND	213	—
2104	SPRUCE MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.6%	87.5	A	PA	WEST READING	184	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2105	DINWIDDIE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	4.6%	87.5	C	VA	PETERSBURG	60	DJ PETRINE LLC
2106	CARE HAVEN CENTER	4.6%	87.5	B	WV	MARTINSBURG	68	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2107	NHC HEALTHCARE, FRANKLIN	4.6%	87.5	C	TN	FRANKLIN	80	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
2108	Danville Centre for Health & Rehabilitation	4.6%	87.5	D	KY	Danville	106	WHEATEN LLC
2109	Colfax General LTC	4.6%	87.5	B	NM	SPRINGER	34	—
2110	KING STREET HOME INC	4.6%	87.5	B	NY	PORT CHESTER	120	—
2111	MID-VALLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.6%	87.5	C	PA	PECKVILLE	38	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2112	Heritage of Emerson	4.6%	87.5	A	NE	Emerson	38	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
2113	The Laurels of Bedford	4.6%	87.5	C	MI	Battle Creek	123	MOHAMMAD A QAZI LIVING TRUST DATED 09 26 97
2114	Richmond Beach Rehab	4.6%	87.5	D	WA	SHORELINE	131	AVAMERE GROUP LLC
2115	Wyatt Manor Nursing and Rehab Ctr, Inc	4.6%	87.5	B	LA	Jonesboro	62	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
2116	MEADOWS OF CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS (THE)	4.6%	87.5	B	MA	ROCHDALE	135	—
2117	Paris Health And Rehabilitation Center	4.6%	87.5	B	AR	PARIS	140	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
2118	Autumn Care of Shallotte	4.6%	87.5	B	NC	Shallotte	100	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2119	MIFFLIN CENTER	4.6%	87.5	B	PA	SHILLINGTON	136	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2120	WATERVIEW POINTE NURSING & REHABILITATION	4.6%	87.5	B	OH	MARIETTA	80	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2121	CRYSTAL COVE CARE CENTER	4.6%	87.4	B	CA	NEWPORT BEACH	96	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2122	GRAND RAPIDS CARE CENTER	4.6%	87.4	A	OH	GRAND RAPIDS	32	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2123	Shea Post Acute Rehabilitation Center	4.6%	87.4	A	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	120	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2124	HARBOUR HEALTH CENTER	4.6%	87.4	D	FL	PORT CHARLOTTE	104	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
2125	FRIENDSHIP HEALTH AND REHAB	4.6%	87.4	A	GA	CLEVELAND	89	EMPLOYEE STOCK OWNERSHIP PLAN OF SELECT HEALTH CARE INC TRUST
2126	Bayshire Riverwalk Post-Acute	4.6%	87.4	C	CA	BAKERSFIELD	120	BROOKDALE SENIOR LIVING INC
2127	Chelsea Gardens	4.6%	87.4	B	TX	Missouri City	0	—
2128	SHORELINE HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.6%	87.4	B	CA	LONG BEACH	75	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2129	THE PLAZA AT LUBBOCK	4.6%	87.4	D	TX	LUBBOCK	0	STONEGATE SENIOR LIVING LP
2130	Live Oak Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.6%	87.4	B	TX	George West	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
2131	RANCHO BELLAGIO POST ACUTE	4.6%	87.4	B	CA	MORENO VALLEY	99	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2132	KENDALLVILLE MANOR	4.6%	87.4	A	IN	KENDALLVILLE	60	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2133	Greenfield Rehab and Nursing Center	4.6%	87.4	C	MI	Royal Oak	105	OPTUM MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS INC
2134	CARE ONE AT NORTHAMPTON	4.6%	87.4	F	MA	NORTHAMPTON	125	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
2135	GRANDE POINTE HEALTHCARE COMMU	4.6%	87.4	C	OH	RICHMOND HEIGHTS	176	RRW LLC
2136	WICKLIFFE COUNTRY PLACE	4.6%	87.4	B	OH	WICKLIFFE	170	CHAVOS221 HOLDINGS LLC
2137	STONEBRIDGE DESOTO	4.6%	87.4	D	MO	DE SOTO	56	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
2138	Prairie View Senior Living	4.5%	87.3	A	MN	TRACY	45	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
2139	CRESTVIEW REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC	4.5%	87.3	A	FL	CRESTVIEW	180	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2140	FULTON NURSING & REHAB	4.5%	87.3	D	MO	FULTON	100	—
2141	MAJESTIC CARE OF LAFAYETTE	4.5%	87.3	C	IN	LAFAYETTE	122	JACKSON COUNTY SCHNECK MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
2142	Complete Care at the Boulevard	4.5%	87.3	F	IL	CHICAGO	156	NJ CHICAGO OPCO HOLDCO LLC
2143	GRACE SKILLED AND NURSING THERAPY NORMAN	4.5%	87.3	B	OK	NORMAN	136	BRIDGES ESOP INC
2144	Dexter Health Care	4.5%	87.3	B	ME	Dexter	53	FIRST ATLANTIC CORPORATION
2145	WHEATON VILLAGE NRSG & RHB CTR	4.5%	87.3	C	IL	WHEATON	123	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
2146	Redlands Healthcare Center	4.5%	87.3	A	CA	Redlands	78	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2147	Nye Pointe Health & Rehab Ctr	4.5%	87.3	A	NE	Fremont	43	PARAGON MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2148	Deerfield Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.5%	87.3	C	LA	Delhi	103	—
2149	Laurel Convalescent Hospital	4.5%	87.3	C	CA	Fontana	99	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
2150	Royal Park Rehabilitation & Health Center	4.5%	87.3	C	NC	Matthews	169	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC

Showing 2,101–2,150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.