Reads as: riskier than 46.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
PRICE TEDDY
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
BOLWAHNN SHEILA
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
CANTRELL JEFFREY LEE
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
ROGERS DAWN
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
SHELTON JAMES
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.99
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.03
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.01
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.99
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.8
2.99
0.03
0.92
2.04
3.01
0.0%
2025Q3
92
53.7
3.16
0.03
0.90
2.23
3.33
0.0%
2025Q2
91
55.2
3.09
0.04
0.86
2.19
3.21
0.0%
2025Q1
90
53.3
3.13
0.05
1.00
2.09
3.38
0.0%
2024Q4
92
48.9
3.42
0.06
0.99
2.37
3.71
0.0%
2024Q3
92
50.6
3.29
0.05
0.96
2.27
3.44
0.0%
2024Q2
91
53.4
3.16
0.08
0.91
2.17
3.28
0.0%
2024Q1
91
55.4
3.07
0.05
0.87
2.15
3.14
0.0%
2023Q4
92
54.2
3.16
0.06
0.88
2.21
3.15
0.0%
2023Q3
92
50.9
3.13
0.05
0.93
2.16
3.08
0.0%
2023Q2
91
50.1
2.88
0.06
0.92
1.89
2.86
0.0%
2023Q1
90
52.9
3.09
0.05
0.89
2.15
3.00
0.0%
2022Q4
92
49.1
3.16
0.11
0.87
2.18
2.97
0.0%
2022Q3
92
49.1
3.42
0.03
0.94
2.45
3.25
0.0%
2022Q2
91
50.3
3.00
0.09
0.84
2.07
2.85
0.0%
2022Q1
90
52.0
2.63
0.10
0.84
1.69
2.42
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-04
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-04-10
2025-09-24
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
—
2025-01-08
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-02-07
2025-01-08
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
E
2025-02-07
2025-01-08
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2025-02-07
2025-01-08
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-02-07
2025-01-08
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-02-07
2025-01-08
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2025-02-07
2024-10-28
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-10-07
2024-01-31
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ZIMMERMAN, FREDA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
57%
—
current
pecos_ownership
HARPER, CHARLOTTE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
14%
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEYERS, MARK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2013-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
TUCKER, DIXIE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2013-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
BOLWAHNN, SHEILA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CANTRELL, JEFFREY LEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, TEDDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, DAWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1993-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELTON, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1990-07-23
current
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2005-01-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDA ZIMMERMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
57%
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLOTTE HARPER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
14%
2004-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIXIE TUCKER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2013-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MEYERS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2013-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN ROGERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1993-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES SHELTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1990-07-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY LEE CANTRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHEILA BOLWAHNN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$308,272
—
—
$140,778
$32,549
4
—
2024-03-31
$301,936
—
—
$133,764
$32,849
4
—
2023-03-31
$279,167
—
—
$127,590
$34,186
4
—
2022-03-31
$282,475
—
—
$140,965
$37,116
4
—
2021-03-31
$74,049
—
—
$40,184
$9,750
4
—
2020-12-31
$264,267
—
—
$142,042
$32,080
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22049
fmr
0
$601
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22049
fmr
1
$761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22049
acs median gross
2
$602
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22049
fmr
2
$834
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22049
acs median gross
3
$814
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22049
fmr
3
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22049
acs median gross
4
$842
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22049
fmr
4
$1,225
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22049
acs median gross
$736
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22049
acs recent mover gross
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71251
acs median gross
2
$591
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71251
acs median gross
3
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71251
acs median gross
$751
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 71251
payment standard 110
0
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 90
0
$549
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
safmr
0
$610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 110
1
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 90
1
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
safmr
1
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 110
2
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 90
2
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
safmr
2
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 110
4
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
payment standard 90
4
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71251
safmr
4
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.