Reads as: riskier than 74.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BLACKROCK INC
303 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.22
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.38
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.25
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
74.1
3.22
0.38
0.94
1.90
3.17
0.0%
2025Q3
92
73.1
3.50
0.54
0.86
2.09
3.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
75.9
3.27
0.43
0.91
1.93
3.15
0.0%
2025Q1
90
76.6
3.40
0.43
0.94
2.03
3.38
0.0%
2024Q4
92
78.0
3.56
0.48
0.87
2.21
3.48
0.0%
2024Q3
92
77.6
2.58
0.34
0.69
1.55
2.54
0.0%
2024Q2
91
74.9
2.44
0.23
0.88
1.33
2.31
0.0%
2024Q1
91
76.0
2.70
0.18
1.05
1.47
2.49
0.0%
2023Q4
92
73.1
2.94
0.32
1.11
1.50
2.63
0.0%
2023Q3
92
72.6
2.99
0.41
1.03
1.55
2.47
0.0%
2023Q2
91
67.1
3.25
0.55
0.98
1.72
2.64
0.0%
2023Q1
90
74.0
3.30
0.51
0.81
1.98
2.91
0.5%
2022Q4
92
74.8
3.65
0.49
0.77
2.39
3.21
2.5%
2022Q3
92
75.1
3.71
0.34
1.06
2.31
3.03
13.7%
2022Q2
91
75.3
3.88
0.32
0.95
2.60
3.36
55.2%
2022Q1
90
69.1
3.45
0.39
0.83
2.23
3.12
48.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
J
2025-11-18
2022-09-29
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2022-11-13
2022-09-29
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2022-11-13
2022-09-29
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-11-13
2022-09-29
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-11-13
2022-09-29
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2022-11-13
2022-09-29
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-11-13
2018-12-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-01-31
2018-12-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2019-01-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BLACKROCK INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
BULLOCK, SALLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BULLOCK, SALLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-31
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NORRIS, CHELSEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
NORRIS, CHELSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-10-12
current
pecos_ownership
SHELLY, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-11-30
current
pecos_ownership
VINCENT, BRANDON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-19
current
pecos_ownership
WILLS, SAVANNAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-31
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2019-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2017-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON VINCENT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-08-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHELSEY NORRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-10-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHELSEY NORRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SALLY BULLOCK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SALLY BULLOCK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAVANNAH WILLS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SHELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$851,417
—
$523,853
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$559,171
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$409,091
—
—
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$844,068
—
$8,971
$25,393
$27,694
2
—
2020-12-31
$1,247,769
—
$6,822
$584,604
$42,361
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47187
acs median gross
0
$1,716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47187
fmr
0
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47187
acs median gross
1
$1,769
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47187
fmr
1
$1,578
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47187
acs median gross
2
$1,916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47187
fmr
2
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47187
acs median gross
3
$2,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47187
fmr
3
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47187
acs median gross
4
$2,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47187
fmr
4
$2,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47187
acs median gross
5
$3,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47187
acs median gross
$1,969
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47187
acs recent mover gross
$2,220
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs median gross
0
$1,712
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs median gross
1
$1,755
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs median gross
2
$1,825
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs median gross
3
$2,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs median gross
4
$2,316
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs median gross
$1,916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37064
acs recent mover gross
$2,268
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 37064
payment standard 110
0
$2,057
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 90
0
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
safmr
0
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 110
1
$2,156
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 90
1
$1,764
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
safmr
1
$1,960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 110
2
$2,365
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 90
2
$1,935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
safmr
2
$2,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 110
3
$3,025
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 90
3
$2,475
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
safmr
3
$2,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 110
4
$3,685
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
payment standard 90
4
$3,015
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37064
safmr
4
$3,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.