Composite
89.5 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 93.1 | 81.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 21.48 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 77.2 | 73.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.82 | in index |
| staffing risk | 57.4 | 57.4 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 11.04 | in index |
| billing conduct | 36.7 | 34.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 8.47 | in index |
| chow risk | 64.4 | 43.1 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 7.43 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 34.5 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 45.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 41.2 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 81.4 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 73.6 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 57.4 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 64.8 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 44.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 69.3 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 80.7 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 73.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 57.4 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 57.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.61 | +0.26 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.61 | +0.60 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.34 | -0.18 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.16 | 3.19 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.38 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.17 | 3.02 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.16 | 3.27 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 35.2 | 3.16 | 0.38 | 0.57 | 2.22 | 3.17 | 10.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 36.2 | 3.22 | 0.40 | 0.54 | 2.28 | 3.17 | 7.2% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 35.4 | 3.12 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 2.16 | 3.13 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 32.5 | 3.59 | 0.43 | 0.65 | 2.51 | 3.55 | 0.1% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 34.4 | 3.50 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 2.50 | 3.31 | 5.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 35.4 | 3.56 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 2.32 | 3.26 | 1.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 36.0 | 3.58 | 0.49 | 0.74 | 2.35 | 3.26 | 8.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 35.4 | 3.19 | 0.25 | 0.65 | 2.29 | 2.77 | 11.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 33.4 | 2.70 | 0.34 | 0.62 | 1.75 | 2.61 | 14.9% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 36.1 | 2.71 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 1.80 | 2.55 | 20.7% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 35.7 | 2.91 | 0.49 | 0.26 | 2.16 | 2.49 | 10.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 34.0 | 2.72 | 0.46 | 0.28 | 1.98 | 2.60 | 9.8% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 30.0 | 3.16 | 0.50 | 0.34 | 2.32 | 2.94 | 5.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 41.8 | 3.25 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 2.28 | 2.92 | 27.5% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 40.5 | 3.08 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 2.07 | 2.88 | 4.2% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 38.3 | 3.42 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 2.29 | 3.21 | 0.3% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-25 | Fine | $54,990 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-08-07 | Fine | $36,660 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-09 | Fine | $29,315 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2026-01-02 |
| 2025-12-04 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2026-01-02 |
| 2025-08-05 | Health · complaint | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2025-09-18 |
| 2024-11-25 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2024-12-19 |
| 2024-11-25 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-12-19 |
| 2024-11-25 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2024-12-19 |
| 2024-11-25 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-12-19 |
| 2024-08-07 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2024-09-05 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0574 | The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands. | C | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | E | 2024-03-16 |
| 2024-02-09 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-03-16 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-07-07 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0659 | Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care. | E | 2023-07-07 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2023-07-07 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-07-07 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health · complaint | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2023-07-20 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2023-07-07 |
| 2023-06-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-07-07 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | K | 2022-05-20 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | F | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | G | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0744 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia. | G | 2022-05-20 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | F | 2022-05-19 |
| 2022-04-21 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2022-05-20 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SENEX FOUNDATION INC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2004-04-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FRIEDMAN, JONATHAN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2017-10-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FRIEDMAN, MITCHELL | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2004-04-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SENEX FOUNDATION INC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2007-04-21 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MITCHELL FRIEDMAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2004-04-21 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JONATHAN FRIEDMAN | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2017-10-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 107 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-07-11 | Pueblo Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | CONSTITUTION OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-05-16 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC | — | — | — | 60 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-10-16 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | CASEY'S POND SENIOR LIVING | — | — | — | 66 | NORTHWEST COLORADO VISITING NURSE ASSOCIATION |
| 2024-09-01 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 83 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 81 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 78 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WESTLAKE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 107 | LATHAM RIVER HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2024-09-01 | THORNTON CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 101 | THORNTON CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | DURANGO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 133 | CHIMNEY ROCK HEALTHCARE INC |
| 2024-09-01 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 63 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 08081 | fmr | 0 | $881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08081 | acs median gross | 1 | $693 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08081 | fmr | 1 | $887 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08081 | acs median gross | 2 | $884 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08081 | fmr | 2 | $1,164 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08081 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,332 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08081 | fmr | 3 | $1,396 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08081 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,444 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08081 | fmr | 4 | $1,614 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08081 | acs median gross | $1,039 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 08081 | acs recent mover gross | $1,590 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 81625 | acs median gross | 1 | $679 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 81625 | acs median gross | 2 | $878 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 81625 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,340 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 81625 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,444 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 81625 | acs median gross | $1,046 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 81625 | acs recent mover gross | $1,655 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | safmr | 0 | $1,400 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,606 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,314 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | safmr | 1 | $1,460 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,539 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | safmr | 2 | $1,710 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,266 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,854 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | safmr | 3 | $2,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,003 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,457 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 81625 | safmr | 4 | $2,730 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |