Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,851–1,900

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1851	WESLEY PLACE ON HONEYSUCKLE	1.3%	87.9	A	AL	DOTHAN	166	METHODIST HOME FOR THE AGING
1852	Hattie Ide Chaffee Home	1.3%	87.9	B	RI	East Providence	69	—
1853	FRIENDSHIP HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	1.3%	87.9	A	VA	ROANOKE	253	FRIENDSHIP FOUNDATION INC
1854	BRANDON OAKS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	87.9	A	VA	ROANOKE	62	VIRGINIA LUTHERAN HOMES INC
1855	THE LUTHERAN HOME: BELLE PLAINE	1.3%	87.9	B	MN	BELLE PLAINE	60	—
1856	WYNSCAPE HEALTH & REHAB	1.3%	87.9	A	IL	WHEATON	209	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
1857	INTERFAITH CARE CENTER	1.3%	87.9	C	MN	CARLTON	96	PARTNERS SENIOR LIVING OPTIONS LLC
1858	Park Place	1.3%	87.9	A	IA	Mount Pleasant	49	GREAT RIVER HEALTH SYSTEM INC
1859	Windsor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center of Bastr	1.3%	87.9	C	TX	Bastrop	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
1860	SUMMERFORD HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.3%	87.9	B	AL	FALKVILLE	216	—
1861	GRAND RIVER HEALTH CARE	1.3%	87.9	F	MO	CHILLICOTHE	60	—
1862	ETOWAH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	1.3%	87.9	C	TN	ETOWAH	120	JOHN M FAUST LIVING TRUST
1863	WESTMINSTER-CANTERBURY OF RICHMOND	1.3%	87.9	A	VA	RICHMOND	158	WESTMINSTER CANTERBURY CORPORATION
1864	GOODWIN HOUSE ALEXANDRIA	1.3%	87.8	A	VA	ALEXANDRIA	80	—
1865	Good Samaritan - Forest City	1.3%	87.8	C	IA	Forest City	43	THE EVANGELICAL LUTHERAN GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY
1866	HERITAGE HOUSE OF MARSHALL HEALTH & REHABILITATION	1.3%	87.8	D	TX	MARSHALL	0	—
1867	Rose Blumkin Jewish Home	1.3%	87.8	A	NE	Omaha	105	—
1868	BEAR CREEK NURSING CENTER	1.3%	87.8	C	FL	HUDSON	120	HEALTH SERVICES MANAGEMENT INC
1869	Shawano Health Services	1.3%	87.8	C	WI	Shawano	100	—
1870	ACTORS FUND HOME	1.3%	87.8	B	NJ	ENGLEWOOD	107	—
1871	SOUTH COVE MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	87.8	A	MA	QUINCY	141	SYMBRIA REHAB INC
1872	FAIR HAVEN	1.3%	87.8	A	AL	BIRMINGHAM	259	METHODIST HOME FOR THE AGING
1873	Star Valley Care Center	1.3%	87.8	A	WY	Afton	24	—
1874	EUNICE MANOR	1.3%	87.8	B	LA	EUNICE	152	—
1875	CONTINUING CARE AT SEABROOK	1.3%	87.8	A	NJ	TINTON FALLS	86	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
1876	ENVIVE OF BROOKVILLE	1.3%	87.8	D	IN	BROOKVILLE	100	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1877	BROOKING PARK	1.3%	87.7	F	MO	CHESTERFIELD	49	ST ANDREWS RESOURCES FOR SENIORS SYSTEM
1878	ROYSE CITY MEDICAL LODGE	1.3%	87.7	D	TX	ROYSE CITY	0	HUNT MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1879	Lakeview Extended Care and Rehabilitation	1.3%	87.7	A	MI	Harbor Beach	30	—
1880	LAFON NURSING FACILITY OF THE HOLY FAMILY	1.3%	87.7	C	LA	NEW ORLEANS	155	—
1881	GARDENS OF MCGREGOR AND AMASA STONE	1.3%	87.7	A	OH	EAST CLEVELAND	148	—
1882	New Hampton Nursing & Rehab Center	1.3%	87.7	A	IA	New Hampton	46	—
1883	NOTTINGHAM R H C F	1.3%	87.7	A	NY	JAMESVILLE	40	LORETTO MANAGEMENT CORP
1884	AVERY NURSING HOME/NOBLE BUILDING	1.3%	87.7	C	CT	HARTFORD	194	—
1885	MCAULEY HALL HEALTH CARE CENTE	1.3%	87.7	A	NJ	WATCHUNG	74	—
1886	BELMONT HEALTH & REHABILITATION, THE	1.3%	87.7	B	IN	COLUMBUS	180	COLUMBUS REGIONAL HOSPITAL
1887	FLOWER VILLA, INC	1.3%	87.7	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	41	—
1888	REDBUD VILLAGE	1.3%	87.7	A	KS	PLAINVILLE	34	—
1889	DELEON NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.3%	87.7	C	TX	DE LEON	0	WEST WHARTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1890	Cedar Manor Nursing Home	1.3%	87.7	B	IA	Tipton	54	CLARENCE NURSING HOME INC
1891	WAGONER HEALTH & REHAB	1.3%	87.7	C	OK	WAGONER	117	—
1892	Villa Feliciana Chronic Disease	1.3%	87.7	D	LA	Jackson	299	—
1893	CENTRAL BAPTIST VILLAGE	1.3%	87.7	A	IL	NORRIDGE	116	—
1894	Indian Hills Manor	1.3%	87.7	B	NE	Ogallala	82	LANTIS ENTERPRISES INC
1895	MITCHELL COUNTY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.3%	87.7	B	TX	COLORADO CITY	0	—
1896	The Manor, Inc.	1.3%	87.6	B	VT	Morrisville	72	—
1897	MONTANA MENTAL HEALTH NURSING HOME	1.3%	87.6	C	MT	LEWISTOWN	117	—
1898	AVIATA AT THE SEA - PASADENA	1.3%	87.6	B	FL	SOUTH PASADENA	58	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
1899	CARING HEART REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.3%	87.6	D	PA	PHILADELPHIA	269	—
1900	TERENCE CARDINAL COOKE HEALTH CARE CENTER	1.3%	87.6	B	NY	NEW YORK	679	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS

Showing 1,851–1,900 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.