Reads as: riskier than 85.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.87
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.37
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.89
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.86
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
48.9
2.87
0.37
0.64
1.86
2.89
24.5%
2025Q3
92
41.1
3.00
0.42
0.66
1.92
3.07
10.6%
2025Q2
91
39.1
3.31
0.40
0.71
2.21
3.39
7.3%
2025Q1
90
41.3
2.83
0.52
0.30
2.01
2.88
0.9%
2024Q4
92
45.2
3.27
0.65
0.86
1.77
2.67
10.7%
2024Q3
92
44.6
3.38
0.65
0.88
1.85
2.78
10.4%
2024Q2
91
41.4
3.66
0.61
0.99
2.06
2.89
10.8%
2024Q1
91
43.4
3.51
0.58
0.94
1.99
2.72
14.7%
2023Q4
92
40.2
3.62
0.63
1.05
1.94
2.86
16.9%
2023Q3
92
38.7
3.62
0.59
1.05
1.98
2.82
8.5%
2023Q2
91
41.7
3.55
0.54
1.08
1.93
2.78
10.1%
2023Q1
90
39.0
3.64
0.64
1.11
1.90
2.81
9.1%
2022Q4
92
39.0
3.29
0.63
0.88
1.79
2.51
4.9%
2022Q3
92
40.2
2.80
0.33
0.88
1.59
2.36
6.3%
2022Q2
91
34.7
2.86
0.49
0.78
1.59
2.52
0.2%
2022Q1
90
35.3
2.87
0.66
0.77
1.44
2.53
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 10E × 5
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-27
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-04-27
2026-03-27
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2026-04-06
2026-03-27
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2026-04-27
2026-03-27
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-04-27
2026-03-27
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2026-04-27
2026-03-27
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
E
2026-04-27
2025-02-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2025-03-21
2025-02-27
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
E
2025-03-24
2025-02-27
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2025-03-24
2025-02-27
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-03-24
2025-02-27
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2025-03-24
2025-02-27
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-24
2023-12-12
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-12-29
2023-12-12
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-12-29
2023-12-12
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2023-12-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
11
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
MANOLIA HEALTH MANAGEMENT VI LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA CASTETTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRETT BAYSTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAUDE HAWKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE POGAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2002-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BRAND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY BRAVERMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL HORNBECKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN BARDOCZI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2013-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STUART REED
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$418,526
—
$188,488
$218,922
—
15
—
2023-12-31
$561,907
—
$230,909
$214,371
$105,511
15
—
2022-12-31
$489,062
—
$212,673
$169,907
$95,366
15
—
2021-12-31
$425,207
—
$190,411
$181,365
$42,315
15
—
2020-12-31
$464,380
—
—
$226,300
$42,315
15
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18047
fmr
0
$796
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18047
acs median gross
1
$766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18047
fmr
1
$861
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18047
acs median gross
2
$900
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18047
fmr
2
$1,117
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18047
acs median gross
3
$1,134
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18047
fmr
3
$1,473
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18047
acs median gross
4
$950
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18047
fmr
4
$1,479
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18047
acs median gross
5
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18047
acs median gross
$870
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18047
acs recent mover gross
$1,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47012
acs median gross
1
$761
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47012
acs median gross
2
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47012
acs median gross
3
$1,112
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47012
acs median gross
4
$944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47012
acs median gross
$809
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47012
acs recent mover gross
$1,451
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47012
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 110
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 90
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
safmr
1
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 110
3
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 90
3
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
safmr
3
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 110
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
payment standard 90
4
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47012
safmr
4
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.