Composite
78.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 88.6 | 75.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 20.45 | in index |
| staffing risk | 83.9 | 83.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 16.13 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 45.0 | 33.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.38 | in index |
| billing conduct | 31.8 | 32.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 7.34 | in index |
| chow risk | 47.8 | 45.9 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.52 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 32.4 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 66.9 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 75.7 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 1.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 6.8 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 33.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 83.9 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 56.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 36.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.8 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 77.8 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 33.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 33.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 83.9 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 83.9 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.42 | +0.81 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.42 | +1.38 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 5.00 | +0.50 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.72 | +0.21 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OK median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.72 | 2.78 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.27 | 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.69 | 2.72 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.73 | 2.80 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 49.1 | 2.72 | 0.27 | 0.60 | 1.85 | 2.69 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 48.7 | 2.86 | 0.05 | 0.75 | 2.06 | 2.37 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 47.1 | 3.15 | 0.17 | 0.77 | 2.21 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 48.8 | 2.67 | 0.13 | 0.58 | 1.96 | 2.17 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 52.6 | 2.66 | 0.09 | 0.59 | 1.99 | 2.21 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 57.8 | 2.50 | 0.04 | 0.61 | 1.85 | 2.48 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 58.3 | 2.00 | 0.02 | 0.39 | 1.59 | 1.76 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 56.3 | 2.36 | 0.19 | 0.53 | 1.64 | 2.05 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 53.7 | 2.65 | 0.18 | 0.64 | 1.83 | 2.01 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 52.5 | 2.51 | 0.13 | 0.56 | 1.82 | 1.91 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 51.5 | 2.45 | 0.17 | 0.62 | 1.66 | 2.36 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 47.8 | 2.44 | 0.09 | 0.68 | 1.67 | 2.42 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 49.6 | 2.32 | 0.23 | 0.49 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 50.1 | 2.16 | 0.13 | 0.60 | 1.43 | 1.92 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 52.5 | 3.11 | 0.23 | 0.95 | 1.94 | 2.80 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 50.8 | 2.94 | 0.16 | 0.89 | 1.89 | 2.63 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-25 | Health · complaint | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-25 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2026-03-25 |
| 2026-02-25 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2026-03-30 |
| 2025-09-17 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-10-16 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-05-11 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | D | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | D | 2025-05-10 |
| 2024-10-08 | Health · complaint | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2024-10-10 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2024-02-01 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | D | 2024-02-10 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-02-01 |
| 2023-12-29 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | D | 2024-02-11 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2023-02-10 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | D | 2023-05-10 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | E | 2023-05-15 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2023-05-10 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | D | 2023-03-15 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2023-05-10 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2023-05-25 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2023-05-10 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2023-05-10 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2023-05-10 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0770 | Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents. | D | 2023-05-23 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-03-28 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAGONER MANOR LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| WAGONER MANOR LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MONTGOMERY, BRADFORD | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2014-12-22 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MORAVEK, RICHARD | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WAGONER MANOR LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| WAGONER MANOR LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| WAGONER MANOR LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BRADFORD MONTGOMERY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2014-12-22 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RICHARD MORAVEK | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2015-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC | — | — | — | 104 | IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | THE COMMONS | — | — | — | 138 | COMMONS OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | BEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS | — | — | — | 80 | BEADLES OPERATIONS, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | STIGLER NURSING & REHAB | — | — | — | 80 | HASKELL NURSING & REHAB LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | NOWATA NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 65 | NOWATA LTC LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | EASTGATE VILLAGE CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 110 | EASTGATE HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | Broadway Care & Rehab Center | — | — | — | 105 | BROADWAY HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-05-14 | FORT GIBSON CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | FORT GIBSON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE MANOR | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE MANOR MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | HERITAGE PARK | — | — | — | 55 | HERITAGE PARK MANAGEMENT, LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | COWETA CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | COWETA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | MITCHELL CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 100 | MITCHELL HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 40145 | acs median gross | 0 | $683 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40145 | fmr | 0 | $933 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40145 | acs median gross | 1 | $777 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40145 | fmr | 1 | $987 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40145 | acs median gross | 2 | $974 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40145 | fmr | 2 | $1,217 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40145 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,244 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40145 | fmr | 3 | $1,602 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40145 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,450 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40145 | fmr | 4 | $1,858 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 40145 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,213 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 40145 | acs median gross | $1,068 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 40145 | acs recent mover gross | $1,290 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 74467 | acs median gross | 1 | $574 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74467 | acs median gross | 2 | $860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74467 | acs median gross | 3 | $903 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74467 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,250 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 74467 | acs median gross | $849 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 74467 | acs recent mover gross | $676 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $858 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $702 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | safmr | 0 | $780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | safmr | 1 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,122 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $918 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | safmr | 2 | $1,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,474 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,206 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | safmr | 3 | $1,340 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,716 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,404 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 74467 | safmr | 4 | $1,560 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |