Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

151–200

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
151	Williamsburg Village Healthcare Campus	13.7%	99.1	D	TX	Desoto	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
152	WESTERN SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	13.7%	99.1	A	OK	BUFFALO	76	BRIDGES ESOP INC
153	Mount Olive Center	13.7%	99.1	C	NC	Mount Olive	150	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
154	Greene Health & Rehab Center	13.6%	99.1	C	PA	GREENSBURG	119	BNV DYNASTY LLC
155	Paradigm at the Creek	13.6%	99.1	F	TX	Wharton	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
156	LIFE CARE CENTER OF TUCSON	13.5%	99.1	C	AZ	TUCSON	162	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
157	BAYSHORE RESIDENCE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	13.5%	99.1	F	MN	DULUTH	140	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
158	SOUTHLAND REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	13.4%	99.1	C	TX	LUFKIN	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
159	Windward Gardens	13.4%	99.1	C	ME	Camden	73	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
160	LIFE CARE CENTER OF MORRISTOWN	13.3%	99.1	B	TN	MORRISTOWN	161	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
161	CHEROKEE ROSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	13.3%	99.1	B	TX	GLEN ROSE	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
162	Avir at Houston	13.2%	99.1	D	TX	Houston	0	GRAF HOLDINGS LLC
163	Clairidge House	13.2%	99.0	A	WI	KENOSHA	87	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
164	KIRKSVILLE MANOR CARE CENTER	13.2%	99.0	F	MO	KIRKSVILLE	119	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
165	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SULLIVAN	13.2%	99.0	C	MO	SULLIVAN	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
166	ALDEN LAKELAND REHAB & HCC	13.2%	99.0	F	IL	CHICAGO	300	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
167	BRIARWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	13.1%	99.0	C	CO	DENVER	201	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
168	WATERS OF COLUMBIA CITY SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	13.1%	99.0	C	IN	COLUMBIA CITY	84	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
169	Wayne Countryview Care and Rehabilitation	13.1%	99.0	C	NE	Wayne	60	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
170	CEDAR CREEK NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	13.1%	99.0	C	TX	BANDERA	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
171	Legacy at Corsicana Rehabilitation and Healthcare	13.1%	99.0	D	TX	CORSICANA	0	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
172	Northwestern Healthcare Center	13.1%	99.0	C	OH	BEREA	100	RRW LLC
173	LIFE CARE CENTER OF KONA	13.1%	99.0	C	HI	KAILUA KONA	94	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
174	MAYWOOD TERRACE LIVING CENTER	13.1%	99.0	C	MO	INDEPENDENCE	89	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
175	Grand Islander Center	13.1%	99.0	D	RI	Middletown	146	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
176	Las Palomas Center	13.1%	99.0	B	NM	Albuquerque	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
177	LIFE CARE CENTER OF COOS BAY	13.0%	99.0	C	OR	COOS BAY	114	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
178	TEAGUE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	13.0%	99.0	B	TX	TEAGUE	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
179	LIFE CARE CENTER OF LONGMONT	13.0%	98.9	C	CO	LONGMONT	187	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
180	APERION CARE KOKOMO	13.0%	98.9	F	IN	KOKOMO	105	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
181	Havasu Nursing Center	12.9%	98.9	B	AZ	LAKE HAVASU CITY	118	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
182	MAGNOLIA CREEK NURSING AND REHABILITATION	12.9%	98.9	D	TN	COVINGTON	156	ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
183	Clayton Nursing and Rehab Center	12.9%	98.9	B	NM	Clayton	45	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
184	Majestic Care of Hopemont	12.8%	98.9	F	WV	TERRA ALTA	98	—
185	REELFOOT MANOR HEALTH AND REHAB	12.8%	98.9	B	TN	TIPTONVILLE	116	BARRES LLC
186	Clovis Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	12.8%	98.9	C	NM	Clovis	90	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
187	AUTUMN RIDGE REHABILITATION CENTRE	12.8%	98.9	B	IN	WABASH	75	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
188	Magnolia Lane Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	12.8%	98.9	C	NC	Morganton	121	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
189	SUMMIT CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	12.7%	98.9	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	93	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
190	WATERS OF DILLSBORO-ROSS MANOR, THE	12.7%	98.9	C	IN	DILLSBORO	123	MAJOR HOSPITAL
191	MEDICALODGES KINSLEY	12.7%	98.9	C	KS	KINSLEY	42	MEDICALODGES INC
192	MOMENCE MEADOWS NURSING & REHAB	12.7%	98.9	C	IL	MOMENCE	140	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
193	Drumright Nursing Home	12.7%	98.9	D	OK	Drumright	133	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
194	Life Care Center of McMinnville	12.7%	98.9	C	OR	MCMINNVILLE	110	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
195	Avir at Seguin	12.7%	98.9	C	TX	SEGUIN	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
196	WOODWARD SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	12.6%	98.9	C	OK	WOODWARD	80	BRIDGES ESOP INC
197	North Long Beach Post Acute	12.5%	98.8	C	CA	LONG BEACH	120	9560 PICO LLC
198	LIFE CARE CENTER OF PLANO	12.5%	98.8	B	TX	PLANO	0	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
199	Avir at Giddings	12.5%	98.8	C	TX	Giddings	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
200	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF SOUTH PITTSBURG REHAB & WE	12.5%	98.8	D	TN	SOUTH PITTSBURG	165	WHEATEN LLC

Showing 151–200 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.