Composite
69.0 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 76.2 | 63.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.58 | in index |
| staffing risk | 66.4 | 66.4 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 12.77 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 48.9 | 37.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.28 | in index |
| billing conduct | 39.2 | 35.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 9.05 | in index |
| chow risk | 42.4 | 40.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.89 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 35.3 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 56.4 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 63.9 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 13.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 37.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 66.4 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 79.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 63.7 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.7 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 37.7 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 37.7 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 66.4 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 66.4 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.31 | +0.73 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.38 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.31 | -1.89 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Occupancy | 0.57 | +0.76 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.34 | +0.13 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.04 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.30 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.80 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.14 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 68.1 | 3.04 | 0.30 | 0.96 | 1.77 | 2.80 | 9.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 71.4 | 2.85 | 0.42 | 0.95 | 1.48 | 2.74 | 17.1% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 69.7 | 3.12 | 0.36 | 1.25 | 1.51 | 2.92 | 26.9% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 70.6 | 2.68 | 0.32 | 1.10 | 1.25 | 2.63 | 30.3% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 68.9 | 2.70 | 0.22 | 1.04 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 24.2% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 70.0 | 2.62 | 0.19 | 1.00 | 1.43 | 2.53 | 22.8% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 72.1 | 2.60 | 0.17 | 0.99 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 12.6% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 72.0 | 2.53 | 0.16 | 1.03 | 1.34 | 2.32 | 29.9% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 74.1 | 2.93 | 0.18 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 2.85 | 47.4% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 72.1 | 2.04 | 0.18 | 0.54 | 1.32 | 1.85 | 1.3% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 70.2 | 2.49 | 0.21 | 0.61 | 1.67 | 2.35 | 0.3% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 75.6 | 2.39 | 0.19 | 0.62 | 1.58 | 2.25 | 0.9% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 70.1 | 2.86 | 0.21 | 0.95 | 1.70 | 2.71 | 16.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 67.8 | 3.06 | 0.17 | 1.21 | 1.68 | 2.84 | 30.4% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 70.8 | 2.80 | 0.13 | 1.13 | 1.53 | 2.62 | 29.9% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 67.9 | 2.57 | 0.07 | 1.09 | 1.42 | 2.43 | 30.4% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | G | — |
| 2025-06-16 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-16 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-06-16 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2025-07-22 |
| 2025-03-24 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2024-10-04 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-10-04 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-10-04 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | E | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-10-04 | Health | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | D | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-10-04 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-10-04 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-11-12 |
| 2024-10-04 | Health | F0887 | Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status. | E | 2024-11-12 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-08-17 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | E | 2023-10-01 |
| 2023-06-02 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2023-05-31 |
| 2022-02-10 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2022-03-25 |
| 2022-02-10 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | E | 2022-03-25 |
| 2022-02-10 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2022-03-25 |
| 2022-02-10 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | E | 2022-03-25 |
| 2022-02-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-03-25 |
| 2022-02-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-03-25 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CROSS, CINDY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2002-09-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC. | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2002-09-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TAYLOR, MATTHEW | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2021-09-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THURMOND, JOAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2002-09-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MATTHEW TAYLOR | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2021-09-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| FORREST PRESTON | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 99% | 2002-09-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CINDY CROSS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2002-09-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOAN THURMOND | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2002-09-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29071 | acs median gross | 0 | $607 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29071 | fmr | 0 | $955 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29071 | acs median gross | 1 | $662 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29071 | fmr | 1 | $995 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29071 | acs median gross | 2 | $894 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29071 | fmr | 2 | $1,218 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29071 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,051 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29071 | fmr | 3 | $1,568 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29071 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,322 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29071 | fmr | 4 | $1,812 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29071 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,329 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29071 | acs median gross | $893 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29071 | acs recent mover gross | $1,009 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63080 | acs median gross | 1 | $775 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63080 | acs median gross | 2 | $910 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63080 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,013 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63080 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,075 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63080 | acs median gross | $925 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63080 | acs recent mover gross | $956 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $836 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | safmr | 0 | $760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $729 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | safmr | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | safmr | 2 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,408 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,152 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | safmr | 3 | $1,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,628 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,332 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63080 | safmr | 4 | $1,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |