Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

101–150

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
101	PINE VIEW CARE CENTER	14.8%	99.4	B	WI	BLACK RIVER FALLS	95	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
102	Monte Vista Hills Healthcare Center	14.8%	99.4	C	ID	Pocatello	113	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
103	Generations at Rock Island	14.8%	99.4	D	IL	ROCK ISLAND	177	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
104	Grace Care Center of Nocona	14.7%	99.4	C	TX	Nocona	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
105	LIFE CARE CENTER OF BRUCETON-HOLLOW ROCK	14.7%	99.4	B	TN	BRUCETON	130	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
106	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT ST PETERS	14.7%	99.4	A	MO	SAINT PETERS	91	—
107	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	14.7%	99.4	B	IN	WALKERTON	107	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
108	STONEBRIDGE ADAMS STREET	14.6%	99.4	D	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	120	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
109	Wooldridge Place Nursing Center	14.6%	99.4	C	TX	Corpus Christi	0	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
110	HERMITAGE NURSING & REHAB	14.5%	99.4	C	MO	HERMITAGE	120	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
111	VALLEY MANOR AND REHABILITATION CENTER	14.5%	99.4	D	MO	EXCELSIOR SPRINGS	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
112	POCAHONTAS CENTER	14.4%	99.3	B	WV	MARLINTON	68	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
113	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	14.4%	99.3	B	IN	HOPE	75	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
114	KITTANNING HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	14.4%	99.3	C	PA	KITTANNING	119	BNV DYNASTY LLC
115	Madisonville Care Center	14.4%	99.3	D	TX	Madisonville	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
116	Avir at Lubbock	14.4%	99.3	D	TX	Lubbock	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
117	MAGNOLIA RIDGE	14.4%	99.3	B	AL	GARDENDALE	148	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
118	SANDSTONE OF TUCSON REHAB CENTRE	14.4%	99.3	C	AZ	TUCSON	240	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
119	WATERS OF PERU SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	14.4%	99.3	D	IN	PERU	130	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
120	Avir at Snyder	14.4%	99.3	C	TX	SNYDER	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
121	Lebanon Center, Genesis HealthCare	14.4%	99.3	D	NH	LEBANON	110	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
122	LIFE CARE CENTER OF ANDOVER	14.3%	99.3	F	KS	ANDOVER	154	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
123	Bayside Manor LLC	14.3%	99.3	B	MN	GAYLORD	44	SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC
124	WESTERN HILLS HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE	14.3%	99.3	D	TX	COMANCHE	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
125	WEST BEND NURSING AND REHABILITATION	14.2%	99.3	B	IN	SOUTH BEND	157	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
126	CARDINAL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	14.2%	99.3	B	IN	SOUTH BEND	144	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
127	Falls City Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	14.2%	99.3	B	NE	Falls City	63	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
128	Pearl Pointe Nursing Rehab & Care	14.2%	99.3	F	IL	FREEPORT	109	WISSATI IRREVOCABLE TRUST
129	Post Nursing & Rehab Center	14.2%	99.2	B	TX	Post	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
130	WILLOW RIDGE HEALTHCARE	14.2%	99.2	B	WI	AMERY	83	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
131	EDGEWOOD REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	14.2%	99.2	C	TX	MESQUITE	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
132	Desert Cove Nursing Center	14.1%	99.2	F	AZ	CHANDLER	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
133	CHAMPION CREEK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	14.1%	99.2	A	OH	MEDINA	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
134	AVIR AT CARTHAGE	14.0%	99.2	C	TX	CARTHAGE	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
135	Beaumont Nursing and Rehabilitation	14.0%	99.2	F	TX	Beaumont	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
136	CASTLETON HEALTH CARE CENTER	14.0%	99.2	C	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	109	HENDRICKS COUNTY HOSPITAL
137	Ripley Healthcare And Rehab Center	14.0%	99.2	C	TN	RIPLEY	144	B&Y TRUST
138	Newburgh Health and Rehab	13.9%	99.2	C	IN	NEWBURGH	114	DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
139	Avir at Caldwell	13.9%	99.2	C	TX	Caldwell	0	BURLESON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
140	BERRY HILL NURSING HOME	13.9%	99.2	B	VA	SOUTH BOSTON	120	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
141	CRANBURY CENTER	13.9%	99.2	D	NJ	MONROE TOWNSHIP	154	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
142	MACON HEALTH CARE CENTER	13.9%	99.2	B	MO	MACON	84	NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
143	MEDICALODGES NEVADA	13.9%	99.2	C	MO	NEVADA	100	MEDICALODGES INC
144	CLARIDGE HEALTHCARE CENTER	13.9%	99.2	F	IL	LAKE BLUFF	231	—
145	PARKWAY HEALTH CARE CENTER	13.8%	99.2	B	MO	KANSAS CITY	97	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
146	Life Care Center of Paradise Valley	13.8%	99.1	D	AZ	PHOENIX	210	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
147	Alpine Care of Zion	13.8%	99.1	F	IL	ZION	244	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
148	Bear Canyon Rehabilitation Center	13.7%	99.1	F	NM	Albuquerque	178	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
149	PERRY HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	13.7%	99.1	D	PA	WEXFORD	182	RRW LLC
150	Fleshers Fairview Health Care	13.7%	99.1	C	NC	Fairview	106	—

Showing 101–150 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.