Reads as: riskier than 39.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.57
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.45
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.43
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.62
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
48.6
3.57
0.45
0.90
2.22
3.43
15.1%
2025Q3
92
49.7
3.58
0.45
0.68
2.45
3.37
7.8%
2025Q2
91
46.6
3.24
0.33
0.54
2.37
3.28
4.7%
2025Q1
90
42.6
3.26
0.31
0.70
2.24
3.16
6.9%
2024Q4
92
39.7
3.20
0.27
0.69
2.24
3.15
2.9%
2024Q3
92
37.5
3.38
0.22
0.82
2.33
3.24
6.4%
2024Q2
91
38.4
3.28
0.27
0.72
2.29
3.18
5.7%
2024Q1
91
36.4
3.16
0.27
0.71
2.19
3.15
5.5%
2023Q4
92
37.9
3.07
0.39
0.62
2.06
3.10
5.7%
2023Q3
92
36.6
3.18
0.62
0.53
2.03
2.99
0.8%
2023Q2
91
34.3
3.31
0.57
0.56
2.18
3.15
1.3%
2023Q1
90
32.9
2.77
0.55
0.58
1.64
2.77
0.0%
2022Q4
92
31.3
2.25
0.62
0.59
1.03
2.17
0.0%
2022Q3
92
30.1
2.05
0.68
0.55
0.82
1.88
0.3%
2022Q2
91
32.2
1.77
0.50
0.60
0.66
1.67
0.7%
2022Q1
90
32.5
1.66
0.43
0.64
0.59
1.67
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 14G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-05
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-12-30
2025-12-05
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-12-30
2025-12-05
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-12-30
2025-12-05
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-12-30
2025-10-08
Health · complaint
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-10-24
2025-10-08
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-10-24
2025-10-08
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-10-24
2025-10-08
Health · complaint
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2025-10-24
2024-01-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-02-02
2024-01-12
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-02-02
2024-01-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-02
2024-01-12
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-02-02
2024-01-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-02-02
2024-01-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-02-02
2024-01-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-02-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOYLE, PATRICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOYLE, PATRICK
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-06
current
pecos_ownership
DECOLA, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUNKLE, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAUG, LORI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAMRAN, NADEEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAMRAN, NADEEM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-06
current
pecos_ownership
LUMENT FINANCE TRUST INC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2014-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER'S HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLERS MERRY MANOR WALKERTON LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MMM - WALKERTON
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MMM-INVEST INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MMM-WALKERTON
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ROBINSON, TINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THERACARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WISE, RAYNE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WISE, RAYNE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-06
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID DUNKLE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI HAUG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MMM-WALKERTON
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MMM-WALKERTON
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MMM-WALKERTON LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NADEEM KAMRAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NADEEM KAMRAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK BOYLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAYNE WISE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAYNE WISE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT DECOLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TINA ROBINSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$976,517
—
—
—
—
13
propco
2023-12-31
$1,009,602
—
—
—
—
14
propco
2022-12-31
$784,556
—
—
—
—
14
propco
2021-12-31
$803,931
—
—
—
—
14
propco
2020-12-31
$907,278
—
—
—
—
14
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18141
acs median gross
0
$858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18141
fmr
0
$898
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18141
acs median gross
1
$905
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18141
fmr
1
$1,105
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18141
acs median gross
2
$1,092
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18141
fmr
2
$1,292
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18141
acs median gross
3
$1,197
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18141
fmr
3
$1,567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18141
acs median gross
4
$1,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18141
fmr
4
$1,711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18141
acs median gross
5
$1,404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18141
acs median gross
$1,062
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18141
acs recent mover gross
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46574
acs median gross
1
$707
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46574
acs median gross
2
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46574
acs median gross
3
$953
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46574
acs median gross
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46574
acs recent mover gross
$778
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 46574
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 110
1
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 90
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
safmr
1
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 110
2
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 90
2
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
safmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 110
3
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 90
3
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
safmr
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 110
4
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
payment standard 90
4
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46574
safmr
4
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.