Composite
40.7 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 82.4 | 79.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.02 | in index |
| staffing risk | 81.1 | 81.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 15.60 | in index |
| chow risk | 49.3 | 47.4 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 5.69 | in index |
| financial risk | 20.6 | 27.5 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 4.75 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 69.8 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 27.5 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 14.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 79.3 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 81.1 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 65.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 45.5 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 31.0 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 33.5 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.2 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 81.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 81.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.44 | +0.58 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.76 | +0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.74 | -0.12 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 3.76 | -0.99 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.44 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.77 | +0.18 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.81 | +0.11 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MN median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.77 | 3.49 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.77 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.74 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.79 | 3.59 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 32.5 | 2.77 | 0.77 | 0.26 | 1.75 | 2.74 | 43.8% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 33.1 | 2.85 | 0.59 | 0.47 | 1.78 | 2.79 | 47.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 34.4 | 1.62 | 0.16 | 0.28 | 1.18 | 1.39 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 35.7 | 2.88 | 0.86 | 0.27 | 1.76 | 2.90 | 47.4% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 34.0 | 2.96 | 0.79 | 0.26 | 1.91 | 2.85 | 44.7% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 36.1 | 2.45 | 0.59 | 0.29 | 1.57 | 2.45 | 44.1% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 31.1 | 2.90 | 0.57 | 0.54 | 1.79 | 3.00 | 45.5% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 30.7 | 2.84 | 0.32 | 0.78 | 1.74 | 2.73 | 45.5% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 32.0 | 2.45 | 0.25 | 0.58 | 1.62 | 2.43 | 34.9% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 34.1 | 2.38 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 1.44 | 2.24 | 29.6% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 34.0 | 2.50 | 0.33 | 0.74 | 1.44 | 2.43 | 18.6% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 32.2 | 2.96 | 0.52 | 0.77 | 1.67 | 2.89 | 25.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 28.2 | 3.32 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 2.09 | 3.10 | 36.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 28.6 | 2.39 | 0.33 | 0.65 | 1.41 | 2.21 | 15.1% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 27.6 | 2.28 | 0.24 | 0.68 | 1.37 | 1.94 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 29.8 | 2.17 | 0.28 | 0.38 | 1.52 | 2.01 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-07 | Fine | $16,982 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health · complaint | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health · complaint | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | F | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-11 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2026-01-16 |
| 2025-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2025-11-22 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health · complaint | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2025-06-16 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-10-15 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2024-11-22 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | J | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | C | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health · complaint | F0725 | Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift. | F | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-10-15 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-02-07 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2024-03-14 |
| 2024-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2024-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-02-02 |
| 2023-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-11-08 |
| 2023-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-11-08 |
| 2023-10-10 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2023-11-08 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HALPERT, MARC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 32% | 2021-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LEGUM, JOSHUA | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 32% | 2021-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SPARTAN HEALTHCARE LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 32% | 2021-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| YAZOMA HOLDINGS, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 32% | 2021-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STERN, WILLIAM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 22% | 2021-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WBS HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 22% | 2021-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JAFFA, NOAM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 14% | 2021-12-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NIJ LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 14% | 2021-05-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOSHUA LEGUM | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 32% | 2021-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARC HALPERT | CORPORATE OFFICER | 32% | 2021-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WILLIAM STERN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 22% | 2021-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NOAM JAFFA | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 14% | 2021-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-22 | CURA OF ONAMIA | — | — | — | 57 | CURA OF ONAMIA LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | SHAKOPEE FRIENDSHIP MANOR | — | — | — | 60 | SHAKOPEE CARE LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST | — | — | — | 48 | EDENBROOK ROCHESTER WEST LLC |
| 2024-10-29 | Cura of Sauk Centre | — | — | — | 60 | CURA OF SAUK CENTRE LLC |
| 2024-10-15 | Heartwood | — | — | — | 54 | CROSBY SENIOR SERVICES CARE CENTER |
| 2024-02-13 | Cura of Monticello | — | — | — | 67 | CURA OF MONTICELLO LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 115 | MAPLEWOOD REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-31 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATI CENTER | — | — | — | 61 | SLEEPY EYE REHABILITATION CENTER LLC |
| 2023-12-15 | ST BENEDICTS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 75 | ECUMEN SBC ST CLOUD PROPERTIES LLC |
| 2023-12-01 | Frazee Care Center | — | — | — | 42 | LEGACY SENIOR SERVICES |
| 2023-06-05 | CURA OF LE SUEUR | — | — | — | 50 | CURA OF LE SUEUR LLC |
| 2023-05-01 | LAKEHOUSE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 260 | LAKE HARRIET OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 27143 | acs median gross | 0 | $745 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27143 | fmr | 0 | $671 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27143 | acs median gross | 1 | $622 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27143 | fmr | 1 | $742 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27143 | acs median gross | 2 | $851 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27143 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27143 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,226 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27143 | fmr | 3 | $1,299 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27143 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,546 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27143 | fmr | 4 | $1,304 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 27143 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,063 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 27143 | acs median gross | $855 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 27143 | acs recent mover gross | $1,239 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 55334 | acs median gross | 1 | $680 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55334 | acs median gross | 2 | $820 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55334 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,664 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55334 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,750 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 55334 | acs median gross | $895 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $957 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $783 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | safmr | 0 | $870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $968 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $792 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | safmr | 1 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,166 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $954 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | safmr | 2 | $1,060 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,639 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,341 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | safmr | 3 | $1,490 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,958 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,602 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 55334 | safmr | 4 | $1,780 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |