Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

801–850

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
801	COLUMBIA BASIN CARE FACILITY	3.3%	94.8	C	OR	THE DALLES	90	—
802	APPLING NURSING AND REHABILITATION PAVILION	3.3%	94.8	B	GA	BAXLEY	101	—
803	DEL RIO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.3%	94.8	C	TX	DEL RIO	0	VAL VERDE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
804	ST GERARD'S COMMUNITY OF CARE	3.3%	94.8	B	ND	HANKINSON	34	—
805	LOOMIS LAKESIDE AT REEDS LANDING	3.3%	94.8	B	MA	SPRINGFIELD	42	—
806	LIFEQUEST NURSING CENTER	3.3%	94.8	B	PA	QUAKERTOWN	140	PLEXUS GROUP INC
807	FOUR SEASONS HEALTH CARE INC	3.3%	94.7	B	ND	FORMAN	33	—
808	MEYER CARE CENTER	3.3%	94.7	A	MO	HIGGINSVILLE	56	—
809	Valley Vista Care Center of St Maries	3.3%	94.7	C	ID	St Maries	74	VALLEY VISTA CARE CORPORATION
810	COLDWATER MANOR	3.3%	94.7	A	TX	STRATFORD	26	—
811	MAGNOLIA PLACE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.3%	94.7	B	GA	ROME	34	—
812	RETREAT, THE	3.3%	94.7	A	GA	MONTICELLO	55	—
813	Meth-Wick Health Center	3.3%	94.7	A	IA	Cedar Rapids	69	—
814	HOLY CROSS VILLAGE AT NOTRE DAME INC	3.3%	94.7	A	IN	NOTRE DAME	52	—
815	Palo Alto County Hospital	3.3%	94.7	A	IA	Emmetsburg	22	—
816	HAMILTON GROVE	3.3%	94.7	C	IN	NEW CARLISLE	85	WOODLAWN HOSPITAL
817	TRINITY VILLAGE MEDICAL CENTER	3.3%	94.7	C	AR	PINE BLUFF	94	—
818	ASCENSION NAZARETHVILLE PLACE	3.3%	94.7	A	IL	DES PLAINES	68	—
819	Martin Health Center, INC	3.3%	94.7	C	IA	Cedar Falls	50	—
820	DELAWARE VETERANS HOME	3.3%	94.7	C	DE	MILFORD	144	—
821	Sacred Heart Care Center	3.3%	94.7	A	MN	AUSTIN	59	—
822	Mary Health of the Sick Convalescent & Nursing Hos	3.3%	94.7	A	CA	Newbury Park	61	—
823	Sanford Senior Care Sheldon	3.3%	94.6	D	IA	Sheldon	70	—
824	HERITAGE AT LONGVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.3%	94.6	D	TX	LONGVIEW	0	—
825	The Village of Ackley	3.3%	94.6	C	IA	Ackley	38	—
826	CERENITY MARIAN OF ST PAUL LLC	3.3%	94.6	A	MN	SAINT PAUL	90	—
827	Saint Johns on the Lake	3.2%	94.6	A	WI	MILWAUKEE	27	—
828	OAKDALE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.2%	94.6	A	CA	OAKDALE	115	—
829	ANETA PARKVIEW HEALTH CTR	3.2%	94.6	A	ND	ANETA	35	—
830	ST CLARE LIVING COMMUNITY OF MORA	3.2%	94.6	C	MN	MORA	65	—
831	Four Corners Regional Care Center	3.2%	94.6	C	UT	Blanding	104	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
832	MEMPHIS CONVALESCENT CENTER	3.2%	94.6	C	TX	MEMPHIS	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
833	EASTERN PLUMAS HOSPITAL- PORTOLA CAMPUS DP/SNF	3.2%	94.6	B	CA	PORTOLA	66	—
834	CREST VIEW NURSING HOME	3.2%	94.6	A	WI	NEW LISBON	50	—
835	Bertrand Nursing Home	3.2%	94.6	C	NE	Bertrand	26	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
836	SEVEN SISTERS LIVING CENTER	3.2%	94.6	A	SD	HOT SPRINGS	52	—
837	BETHANY HOME SOCIETY SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY	3.2%	94.6	A	CA	RIPON	92	—
838	Metcalfe Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	3.2%	94.5	C	KY	Edmonton	71	—
839	LEWIS COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT	3.2%	94.5	B	MO	CANTON	118	—
840	SCHOWALTER VILLA	3.2%	94.5	A	KS	HESSTON	105	—
841	HERON'S KEY	3.2%	94.5	A	WA	GIG HARBOR	30	—
842	OAK HILLS LIVING CENTER	3.2%	94.5	A	MN	NEW ULM	94	—
843	GRAN GRANS PLACE	3.2%	94.5	A	OK	YUKON	69	—
844	Norwood Health Ctr-Central	3.2%	94.5	A	WI	Marshfield	32	—
845	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKILLED CARE CENTER AT BRITTANY	3.2%	94.5	A	PA	LANSDALE	92	—
846	Mary Ann Morse Nursing & Rehabilitation	3.2%	94.5	A	MA	NATICK	124	—
847	HOMEWOOD LIVING PLUM CREEK, INC	3.2%	94.5	A	PA	HANOVER	120	—
848	PIATT COUNTY NURSING HOME	3.2%	94.5	A	IL	MONTICELLO	100	—
849	BEACON RIDGE	3.2%	94.5	C	PA	INDIANA	118	PENNSYLVANIA MOUNTAINS CARE NETWORK
850	EVERGREEN WOODS	3.1%	94.5	C	FL	SPRING HILL	120	—

Showing 801–850 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.