Reads as: riskier than 62.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
11
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
24 chains
LUMENT REAL ESTATE CAPITAL LLC
45 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.8 vs natl
GILCREASE CYNTHIA
7 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
STUDER STANLEY
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
FELLBAUM ERNEST
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
CASTILLO LYNNEA
23 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
TOUCHSTONE COMMUNITIES INC
23 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
ZUROVEC DARRELL
23 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
CAMPBELL LESLIE
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
GILCREASE CYNTHIA
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
CAMPBELL LESLIE
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
STUDER STANLEY
27 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.44
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.11
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.17
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.54
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
49.8
2.44
0.11
0.72
1.61
2.17
1.8%
2025Q3
92
45.4
2.41
0.22
0.64
1.56
2.15
2.7%
2025Q2
91
43.1
2.15
0.25
0.76
1.14
1.95
3.3%
2025Q1
90
40.5
2.27
0.26
0.80
1.21
2.09
3.4%
2024Q4
92
41.5
2.14
0.18
0.78
1.18
2.00
4.0%
2024Q3
92
42.3
2.23
0.22
0.79
1.22
2.01
7.3%
2024Q2
91
39.8
2.03
0.23
0.71
1.09
1.87
0.0%
2024Q1
91
38.8
2.38
0.26
0.80
1.32
2.20
0.0%
2023Q4
92
42.1
2.47
0.25
0.80
1.42
2.39
0.0%
2023Q3
92
38.5
2.55
0.23
0.78
1.53
2.44
0.0%
2023Q2
91
38.8
2.62
0.20
0.90
1.51
2.22
0.0%
2023Q1
90
38.7
2.43
0.37
0.71
1.34
2.06
0.0%
2022Q4
92
42.5
2.17
0.40
0.64
1.14
1.84
0.0%
2022Q3
92
40.1
2.26
0.42
0.72
1.13
2.16
0.0%
2022Q2
91
38.9
1.96
0.29
0.72
0.95
1.76
0.0%
2022Q1
90
38.3
2.09
0.28
0.73
1.09
1.90
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-06-16
2025-05-02
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
E
2025-05-03
2025-05-02
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
E
2025-06-16
2025-05-02
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2025-05-03
2025-05-02
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-05-03
2025-05-02
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2025-05-03
2024-04-12
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-04-13
2024-04-12
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-04-13
2024-04-12
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-04-13
2024-04-12
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-04-13
2024-04-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-13
2024-04-12
Health
F0912
Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms.
B
2024-04-13
2024-03-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-03-21
2023-03-02
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-03-24
2023-03-02
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-03-24
2023-03-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-03-24
2023-03-02
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2023-03-24
2023-03-02
Health
F0912
Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms.
B
2023-03-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
VAL VERDE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
CAMPBELL, LESLIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARE INN PROPERTIES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-08
current
pecos_ownership
CARE INN PROPERTIES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
CARE INN PROPERTIES, INC
—
—
2025-02-28
current
tx_hhsc_directory
CARE INN REALTY, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
CASTILLO, LYNNEA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
EGGERS, JACKELINE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-02
current
pecos_ownership
FELLBAUM, ERNEST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
GILCREASE, CYNTHIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JURADO, JORGE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-26
current
pecos_ownership
LUMENT REAL ESTATE CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
STUDER, STANLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
TOUCHSTONE COMMUNITIES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
VAL VERDE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-02-28
current
tx_hhsc_directory
VENEGAS, ROXANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
ZUROVEC, DARRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
JORGE JURADO
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-01-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA GILCREASE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARRELL ZUROVEC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERNEST FELLBAUM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-05-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACKELINE EGGERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LESLIE CAMPBELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNNEA CASTILLO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROXANA VENEGAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STANLEY STUDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-05-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48465
fmr
0
$857
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48465
acs median gross
1
$798
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48465
fmr
1
$863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48465
acs median gross
2
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48465
fmr
2
$1,064
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48465
acs median gross
3
$1,129
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48465
fmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48465
acs median gross
4
$1,471
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48465
fmr
4
$1,455
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48465
acs median gross
$994
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48465
acs recent mover gross
$1,302
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78840
acs median gross
1
$798
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78840
acs median gross
2
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78840
acs median gross
3
$1,136
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78840
acs median gross
4
$1,471
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78840
acs median gross
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78840
acs recent mover gross
$1,306
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78840
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 110
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 90
1
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
safmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 110
2
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 90
2
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
safmr
2
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 110
3
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 90
3
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
safmr
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 110
4
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
payment standard 90
4
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78840
safmr
4
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.