Reads as: riskier than 28.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.0 vs natl
MARTIN CHRISTOPHER
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
RANKIN DEREK
7 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MARTIN CHRISTOPHER
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
KILGORE JOSHUA
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
RANKIN DEREK
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.86
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.69
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.92
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
64.6
2.86
0.28
0.82
1.76
2.69
2.7%
2025Q3
92
64.8
2.72
0.21
0.79
1.72
2.52
4.5%
2025Q2
91
64.2
2.79
0.18
0.82
1.78
2.54
2.0%
2025Q1
90
63.0
2.76
0.13
0.90
1.73
2.66
8.6%
2024Q4
92
69.2
2.53
0.16
0.80
1.57
2.33
6.9%
2024Q3
92
68.3
2.57
0.33
0.63
1.62
2.43
18.7%
2024Q2
91
57.7
2.81
0.30
0.75
1.75
2.68
23.8%
2024Q1
91
61.0
2.53
0.12
0.77
1.64
2.47
17.7%
2023Q4
92
72.3
2.12
0.10
0.69
1.34
2.07
10.9%
2023Q3
92
67.5
1.99
0.15
0.66
1.18
1.93
11.8%
2023Q2
91
71.0
2.04
0.17
0.60
1.27
1.87
11.2%
2023Q1
90
66.7
2.41
0.17
0.68
1.57
2.18
8.2%
2022Q4
92
65.5
2.28
0.15
0.57
1.56
2.14
12.1%
2022Q3
92
65.1
2.49
0.14
0.79
1.56
2.30
9.2%
2022Q2
91
59.4
2.74
0.20
0.74
1.80
2.49
16.5%
2022Q1
90
56.8
2.64
0.30
0.75
1.59
2.49
7.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
D × 6E × 6F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-11-10
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-10
2024-10-17
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2024-11-10
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
F
2024-11-10
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-11-10
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2024-11-10
2024-10-17
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-11-10
2023-09-14
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-10-27
2023-09-14
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-10-27
2022-08-11
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2022-09-23
2022-08-11
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2022-09-23
2022-08-11
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-09-23
2022-08-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-09-23
2022-08-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-09-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
111 PVD LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CIBOLO PARK HEALTHCARE LLC
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
KILGORE, JOSHUA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-14
current
pecos_ownership
KILGORE, KENNETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
KTFW-TX LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGUIRE, WESLEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
NETH, ALEXANDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
ORTEGA, SCOTTY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RANKIN, DEREK
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-14
current
pecos_ownership
RIGHWAY REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RYAN, JEREMY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-14
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, CODY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-14
current
pecos_ownership
THE PARKS CHM LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TWELVE PARSECS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
—
—
2025-09-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDER NETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER MARTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENNETH KILGORE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTTY ORTEGA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WESLEY MCGUIRE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-04-30
$111,831
$6,302
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$335,489
$18,906
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48135
acs median gross
0
$949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48135
fmr
0
$1,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48135
acs median gross
1
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48135
fmr
1
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48135
acs median gross
2
$1,302
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48135
fmr
2
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48135
acs median gross
3
$1,455
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48135
fmr
3
$1,912
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48135
acs median gross
4
$1,770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48135
fmr
4
$2,213
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48135
acs median gross
$1,259
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48135
acs recent mover gross
$1,379
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79765
acs median gross
0
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79765
acs median gross
1
$1,392
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79765
acs median gross
2
$1,622
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79765
acs median gross
3
$2,504
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79765
acs median gross
$1,514
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 79765
acs recent mover gross
$1,382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 79765
payment standard 110
0
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 90
0
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
safmr
0
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 110
1
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 90
1
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
safmr
1
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 110
2
$2,101
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 90
2
$1,719
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
safmr
2
$1,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 110
3
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 90
3
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
safmr
3
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 110
4
$2,948
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
payment standard 90
4
$2,412
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 79765
safmr
4
$2,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.