Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

6,951–7,000

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6951	HOLLISWOOD CTR FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.9%	58.9	A	NY	HOLLIS	314	—
6952	CATHERINE KASPER HOME	0.9%	58.9	D	IN	DONALDSON	82	—
6953	Panora Specialty Care	0.9%	58.9	B	IA	Panora	46	CARE INITIATIVES
6954	McMurray Hills Rehabilitation and Healthcare Cente	0.9%	58.8	B	PA	MCMURRAY	115	AHF MANAGEMENT CORP
6955	SPIRITRUST LUTHERAN THE VILLAGE AT SHREWSBURY	0.9%	58.8	D	PA	SHREWSBURY	100	—
6956	New England Homes for the Deaf, Inc	0.9%	58.8	A	MA	DANVERS	81	—
6957	WORTH COUNTY CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.9%	58.8	B	MO	GRANT CITY	50	—
6958	MONTICELLO HEALTHCARE	0.9%	58.8	A	IN	MONTICELLO	102	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6959	PROVIDENCE LITTLE CO OF MARY TRANSITIONAL CARE CTR	0.9%	58.8	B	CA	TORRANCE	115	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
6960	TRINITY SKILLED CARE CENTER	0.9%	58.8	—	OH	STEUBENVILLE	28	—
6961	WILLOWS HEALTH CENTER	0.9%	58.8	C	IL	ROCKFORD	50	—
6962	MANOR, THE	0.9%	58.8	B	NJ	FREEHOLD	123	ATLANTIC HEALTH SYSTEM
6963	THE HALLMARK	0.9%	58.8	A	TX	HOUSTON	0	BRAZOS PRESBYTERIAN HOMES, INC
6964	BIG CREEK NURSING AND REHABILITATION COMMUNITY	0.9%	58.8	F	IA	POLK CITY	68	—
6965	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY CANTON	0.9%	58.8	B	SD	CANTON	56	SANFORD
6966	CLAIBORNE COUNTY SENIOR CARE	0.9%	58.8	A	MS	PORT GIBSON	65	—
6967	John J Kane Regional Center-Sc	0.9%	58.8	C	PA	PITTSBURGH	311	—
6968	John Edward Harter Nursing Center	0.9%	58.8	A	SC	Fairfax	44	—
6969	WESTMINSTER VILLAGE HEALTH	0.9%	58.8	A	DE	DOVER	75	PHI
6970	HAMILTON POINTE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.9%	58.8	B	IN	NEWBURGH	115	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
6971	Eden Rehab Suites and Green House Homes	0.8%	58.7	C	WI	Oshkosh	50	—
6972	Maverick Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.8%	58.7	C	TX	Eagle Pass	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6973	EASTGATE MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	58.7	C	IN	WASHINGTON	62	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6974	PRAIRIE VILLAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	58.7	B	IN	WASHINGTON	65	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6975	ASHFORD PLACE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.8%	58.7	C	IN	SHELBYVILLE	68	HANCOCK REGIONAL HOSPITAL
6976	Coos County Nursing Hospital	0.8%	58.7	A	NH	WEST STEWARTSTOWN	97	—
6977	Kirkland Village	0.8%	58.7	B	PA	BETHLEHEM	60	PHI
6978	Ft. Worth Southwest Nursing Center	0.8%	58.7	D	TX	Fort Worth	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
6979	APERION CARE HILLSIDE	0.8%	58.7	C	IL	HILLSIDE	73	—
6980	Wecare at The Green Home	0.8%	58.7	C	PA	WELLSBORO	120	UPMC
6981	DRY HARBOR NURSING HOME	0.8%	58.7	A	NY	MIDDLE VILLAGE	360	—
6982	PLEASANT VIEW HOME	0.8%	58.7	F	IA	ALBERT CITY	41	—
6983	CHRISTIAN CARE NURSING CENTER	0.8%	58.7	A	AZ	PHOENIX	20	CHRISTIAN CARE MANAGMENT INC
6984	EDGEWATER WOODS	0.8%	58.7	B	IN	ANDERSON	81	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6985	SHEPHERD OF THE VALLEY-BOARDMAN	0.8%	58.7	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	57	—
6986	ASPIRE OF LAKE PARK	0.8%	58.6	C	IA	LAKE PARK	46	—
6987	Benedictine Living Community \| Mother of Mercy	0.8%	58.6	A	MN	ALBANY	76	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
6988	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - WESTBROOK	0.8%	58.6	A	MN	WESTBROOK	32	SANFORD
6989	NORTH SHORE HEALTH	0.8%	58.6	A	MN	GRAND MARAIS	37	COOK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6990	ORCHARD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.8%	58.6	D	GA	PULASKI	89	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6991	BAY VIEW NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.8%	58.6	D	MN	RED WING	110	—
6992	LUTHERAN LIFE VILLAGES	0.8%	58.6	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	120	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6993	Villa Feliciana Chronic Disease	0.8%	58.6	D	LA	Jackson	299	—
6994	PRAIRIE MISSION RETIREMENT VILLAGE	0.8%	58.6	B	KS	SAINT PAUL	61	—
6995	ROBERT LEE CARE CENTER	0.8%	58.6	B	TX	ROBERT LEE	0	WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6996	LONGHORN VILLAGE	0.8%	58.6	B	TX	AUSTIN	60	—
6997	The Healthcare Resort of Plano	0.8%	58.6	D	TX	Plano	70	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
6998	Maplewood Nursing Home Inc	0.8%	58.6	A	NY	Webster	74	—
6999	The Cottages	0.8%	58.6	B	IA	Pella	100	WESLEYLIFE
7000	CONTINUING HEALTHCARE OF CUYAHOGA FALLS	0.8%	58.6	F	OH	CUYAHOGA FALLS	98	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC

Showing 6,951–7,000 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.