Reads as: riskier than 33.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.77
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.30
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.51
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.87
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
70.5
2.77
0.30
0.48
1.99
2.51
0.0%
2025Q3
92
73.8
2.79
0.24
0.53
2.02
2.51
0.0%
2025Q2
91
70.4
2.79
0.24
0.59
1.97
2.43
0.0%
2025Q1
90
72.7
2.72
0.35
0.53
1.84
2.44
1.9%
2024Q4
92
73.7
2.63
0.35
0.51
1.76
2.31
6.1%
2024Q3
92
72.1
2.61
0.26
0.58
1.77
2.40
5.5%
2024Q2
91
69.5
2.78
0.28
0.61
1.89
2.48
6.5%
2024Q1
91
74.5
2.70
0.36
0.50
1.84
2.30
10.7%
2023Q4
92
73.0
2.66
0.39
0.33
1.93
2.27
6.1%
2023Q3
92
70.8
2.63
0.48
0.32
1.82
2.26
5.0%
2023Q2
91
68.1
2.66
0.55
0.33
1.78
2.48
5.6%
2023Q1
90
69.8
2.55
0.56
0.29
1.70
2.29
2.7%
2022Q4
92
70.2
2.62
0.48
0.33
1.82
2.49
0.3%
2022Q3
92
69.1
2.60
0.43
0.48
1.69
2.51
5.3%
2022Q2
91
68.3
2.56
0.44
0.48
1.65
2.55
7.5%
2022Q1
90
69.2
2.59
0.43
0.57
1.59
2.53
8.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 11E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-20
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2026-05-08
2026-04-20
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2026-05-08
2026-04-20
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2026-05-08
2026-04-20
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2026-05-08
2026-04-20
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2026-05-08
2025-08-29
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
E
2025-07-18
2025-08-29
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-09-19
2025-08-29
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-09-19
2025-06-10
Health · complaint
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2025-06-26
2025-03-20
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-04-14
2025-02-14
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-03-08
2025-02-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-03-08
2024-03-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-04-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
21
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
BABCOCK, PAUL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
DICE, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEAD, STEPHANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
HEAD, STEPHANIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
HORN, BRENDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARDS, LESLIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-24
current
pecos_ownership
SANTOS OLIVERA, RAMON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
SANTOS OLIVERA, RAMON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-29
current
pecos_ownership
VAN CAMP, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEALTH AND HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF MARION COUNTY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2006-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLIE CRAYCRAFT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-10-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENDA HORN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID STORDY
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2016-09-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JADE HABRYCH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLEY STEWART
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-06-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK DICE
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL BABCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT THOMAS
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2015-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN VAN CAMP
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-09-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$515,883
—
—
—
—
13
—
2023-12-31
$488,726
—
—
—
—
13
—
2022-12-31
$506,469
—
—
—
—
13
—
2021-12-31
$463,747
—
—
—
—
14
—
2020-12-31
$472,407
—
—
—
—
14
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18095
acs median gross
0
$694
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18095
fmr
0
$898
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18095
acs median gross
1
$721
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18095
fmr
1
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18095
acs median gross
2
$947
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18095
fmr
2
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18095
acs median gross
3
$1,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18095
fmr
3
$1,594
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18095
acs median gross
4
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18095
fmr
4
$1,597
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18095
acs median gross
5
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18095
acs median gross
$939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18095
acs recent mover gross
$963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46011
acs median gross
1
$673
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46011
acs median gross
2
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46011
acs median gross
3
$1,131
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46011
acs median gross
4
$1,083
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46011
acs median gross
$1,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46011
acs recent mover gross
$1,021
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 46011
payment standard 110
0
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 90
0
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
safmr
0
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 110
1
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 90
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
safmr
1
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 110
2
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 90
2
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
safmr
2
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 110
3
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 90
3
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
safmr
3
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 110
4
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
payment standard 90
4
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46011
safmr
4
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.