One Kirkland Village Circle, BETHLEHEM, PA 18017 · CCN 395916 · chain PHI
Composite
51.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
60
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 51.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.79
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.74
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.75
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.81
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
40.2
3.79
0.74
0.96
2.08
3.75
0.0%
2025Q3
92
42.3
3.67
0.71
0.92
2.04
3.56
0.0%
2025Q2
91
41.3
3.80
0.74
0.98
2.08
3.75
0.0%
2025Q1
90
41.3
3.71
0.68
1.01
2.02
3.63
0.0%
2024Q4
92
41.6
3.64
0.66
0.97
2.02
3.56
0.0%
2024Q3
92
41.3
3.57
0.70
0.85
2.02
3.55
0.0%
2024Q2
91
42.8
4.03
0.75
1.08
2.21
4.05
0.0%
2024Q1
91
44.0
3.95
0.70
1.15
2.09
3.94
2.2%
2023Q4
92
42.6
3.91
0.69
1.19
2.02
3.71
9.8%
2023Q3
92
41.6
3.95
0.77
1.13
2.05
3.79
8.5%
2023Q2
91
42.4
3.52
0.65
1.07
1.79
3.41
4.2%
2023Q1
90
41.0
3.32
0.63
0.86
1.84
3.25
3.9%
2022Q4
92
42.9
3.19
0.67
0.82
1.70
3.19
4.1%
2022Q3
92
41.2
3.41
0.67
0.94
1.80
3.38
3.5%
2022Q2
91
40.9
3.58
0.65
0.90
2.03
3.52
17.0%
2022Q1
90
42.8
3.58
0.73
0.92
1.93
3.46
9.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2026-02-15
2024-09-12
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-10-10
2024-09-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-10
2024-09-12
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-10-10
2024-09-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-10-10
2023-10-26
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2023-12-17
2023-10-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-12-17
2023-10-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-17
2023-10-26
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-12-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
45
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BIRDSALL, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOWSER, NICOLE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2011-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHOTTINER, LAWRENCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, DANNY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
ELLIOTT, BRENDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDSTEIN, TERRY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOFFMAN, CYNTHIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-02
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, SHARON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KINARD, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KINARD, JOSEPH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KRIEGER, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCALISTER, DYAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
PAXTON, STUART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHI
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
REIMANN, SUSAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REIMANN, SUSAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RHODES, CHERYL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCOTT, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEIBERT, JOSEPH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHROPSHIRE, JENNIFER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STONE, ROBYN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VINETTE-CLAY, MELISSA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
WICKLINE, BEVERLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEVERLY WICKLINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENDA ELLIOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERYL RHODES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA HOFFMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL KRIEGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANNY DAVIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-04-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DYAN MCALISTER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-12-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES BIRDSALL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER SHROPSHIRE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH KINARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH KINARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH SEIBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAWRENCE CHOTTINER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA VINETTE-CLAY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE BOWSER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2011-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBYN STONE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARON KELLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STUART PAXTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN REIMANN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN REIMANN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY GOLDSTEIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$4,769,283
—
—
$827,101
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$4,355,319
—
—
$732,683
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$3,789,092
—
—
$28,257
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$2,869,204
—
—
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$2,830,294
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42095
acs median gross
0
$745
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42095
fmr
0
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42095
acs median gross
1
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42095
fmr
1
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42095
acs median gross
2
$1,457
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42095
fmr
2
$1,634
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42095
acs median gross
3
$1,659
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42095
fmr
3
$2,087
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42095
acs median gross
4
$1,765
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42095
fmr
4
$2,195
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42095
acs median gross
5
$1,851
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42095
acs median gross
$1,395
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42095
acs recent mover gross
$1,739
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs median gross
0
$1,654
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs median gross
1
$1,319
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs median gross
2
$1,644
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs median gross
3
$1,905
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs median gross
4
$2,331
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs median gross
$1,597
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18017
acs recent mover gross
$1,665
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 18017
payment standard 110
0
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 90
0
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
safmr
0
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 110
2
$2,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 90
2
$1,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
safmr
2
$1,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 110
3
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 90
3
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
safmr
3
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 110
4
$2,915
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
payment standard 90
4
$2,385
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18017
safmr
4
$2,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.