Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

5,751–5,800

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5751	ABSOLUT CTR FOR NURSING & REHAB ENDICOTT L L C	1.6%	65.9	A	NY	ENDICOTT	160	ABSOLUT FACILITIES MANAGEMENT LLC
5752	Avoca Specialty Care	1.6%	65.9	C	IA	Avoca	46	CARE INITIATIVES
5753	BEL-AIR MANOR NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.9	B	CT	NEWINGTON	71	MARTIN SBRIGLIO 2009 TRUST
5754	SALEM PLACE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER, INC	1.6%	65.9	B	AR	CONWAY	103	—
5755	MAPLE SPRINGS OF PALMER	1.6%	65.9	B	AK	PALMER	67	BRONSHIELD LLC
5756	WESTWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.9	A	FL	FORT WALTON BEACH	60	—
5757	Sterling Health Care and Rehab Center	1.6%	65.9	A	PA	MEDIA	164	—
5758	ST VINCENT DEPAUL RESIDENCE	1.6%	65.9	B	NY	BRONX	200	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
5759	CHAMPION REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	1.6%	65.9	A	MA	BROCKTON	123	—
5760	SEA CREST NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.9	A	NY	BROOKLYN	320	—
5761	BROOKSIDE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.9	A	PA	ROSLYN	120	—
5762	Good Samaritan - Red Oak	1.6%	65.9	C	IA	Red Oak	53	SANFORD
5763	AVIATA AT NORTH FORT MYERS	1.6%	65.9	C	FL	N FT MYERS	120	—
5764	PREMIER NSG & REHAB CENTER OF FAR ROCKAWAY	1.6%	65.9	B	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	183	—
5765	SUNSET MANOR	1.6%	65.9	A	AL	GUIN	71	—
5766	ELDERWOOD AT LANCASTER	1.6%	65.8	C	NY	LANCASTER	96	—
5767	MUNSTER MED-INN	1.6%	65.8	B	IN	MUNSTER	225	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5768	ASBURY COURT NURSING & REHAB	1.6%	65.8	B	IL	DES PLAINES	79	—
5769	GREEN HOUSE HOMES AT MIRASOL, THE	1.6%	65.8	B	CO	LOVELAND	90	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
5770	UNION PLAZA CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.8	A	NY	FLUSHING	280	—
5771	WARREN CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	1.6%	65.8	D	NY	QUEENSBURY	80	—
5772	Maple Manor Rehab Center of Novi Inc	1.6%	65.8	A	MI	Novi	72	—
5773	SUMMIT'S TRACE HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.6%	65.8	D	OH	COLUMBUS	181	—
5774	Hamilton Manor Nursing Home	1.6%	65.8	A	NY	Rochester	40	—
5775	HATHORNE HILL REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	1.6%	65.8	C	MA	DANVERS	120	—
5776	ROSE MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.8	C	NJ	NEW BRUNSWICK	112	—
5777	PLEASANT MANOR NURSING & REHAB	1.6%	65.8	A	AR	ASHDOWN	88	—
5778	MANOR OF THE PLAINS	1.6%	65.8	B	KS	DODGE CITY	50	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
5779	SCHULMAN AND SCHACHNE INST FOR NURSING & REHAB	1.6%	65.8	C	NY	BROOKLYN	448	ONE BROOKLYN HEALTH SYSTEM INC
5780	CABOT HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	1.6%	65.8	B	AR	CABOT	89	—
5781	BRIARWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER,INC	1.6%	65.8	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	120	—
5782	WASHINGTON CENTER FOR REHAB AND HEALTHCARE	1.6%	65.8	B	NY	ARGYLE	122	—
5783	VICTORIA CROSSING REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.8	C	FL	BRANDON	120	—
5784	SKYTOP VIEW REHABILITATION CENTER	1.6%	65.7	A	FL	CLERMONT	30	ORLANDO HEALTH INC
5785	West Ridge Care Center	1.6%	65.7	A	IA	Cedar Rapids	60	—
5786	Plaza Healthcare	1.6%	65.7	A	AZ	SCOTTSDALE	179	—
5787	MONTGOMERY GENERAL ELDERLY CARE	1.6%	65.7	A	WV	MONTGOMERY	60	—
5788	LONOKE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER, LLC	1.6%	65.7	B	AR	LONOKE	80	—
5789	GOOD SAMARITAN REHAB AND CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.7	A	CA	STOCKTON	98	—
5790	BROOKWOOD CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.7	C	OH	CINCINNATI	125	—
5791	APPLE REHAB LAUREL WOODS	1.6%	65.7	B	CT	EAST HAVEN	120	—
5792	THE MEADOWS	1.6%	65.7	C	MS	FULTON	130	—
5793	Lakewest Rehabilitation and Skilled Care	1.6%	65.7	C	TX	Dallas	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5794	WATERS OF BATESVILLE, THE	1.6%	65.7	D	IN	BATESVILLE	86	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5795	Heritage Home Of Florence Inc	1.6%	65.7	B	SC	Florence	132	—
5796	SWISS VILLA NURSING AND REHABILITATION	1.6%	65.7	C	IN	VEVAY	72	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5797	WATERVIEW NURSING CARE CENTER	1.6%	65.7	B	NY	FLUSHING	200	—
5798	Beacon Hill at Eastgate	1.6%	65.7	B	MI	Grand Rapids	29	—
5799	CARROLLTON MANOR, INCORPORATED	1.6%	65.7	A	GA	CARROLLTON	100	—
5800	INDEPENDENCE CARE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILIT	1.6%	65.7	B	NY	RIVERDALE	190	—

Showing 5,751–5,800 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.