Composite
52.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 81.8 | 54.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.88 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 75.1 | 71.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.33 | in index |
| chow risk | 86.5 | 60.1 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 9.98 | in index |
| financial risk | 9.5 | 18.7 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 2.19 | in index |
| staffing risk | 4.5 | 4.6 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 0.87 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 54.0 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 32.2 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 88.0 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 18.7 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 71.2 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 4.6 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 41.4 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 24.2 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 71.0 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 4.6 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 4.6 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.91 | -0.37 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | -0.12 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 2.00 | +1.06 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.91 | -0.71 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.89 | -0.61 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.39 | +0.39 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.71 | -0.36 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AK median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.91 | 5.91 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 1.28 | 1.50 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.60 | 5.78 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 5.03 | 5.97 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 59.9 | 4.91 | 1.28 | 1.21 | 2.41 | 4.60 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 62.8 | 4.89 | 1.09 | 1.24 | 2.56 | 4.41 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 65.2 | 4.74 | 1.15 | 1.01 | 2.59 | 4.18 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 59.0 | 5.27 | 1.27 | 1.21 | 2.79 | 4.82 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 58.6 | 5.62 | 1.43 | 1.22 | 2.97 | 5.13 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 60.1 | 5.29 | 1.26 | 1.03 | 3.00 | 4.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 62.4 | 5.00 | 1.17 | 0.89 | 2.94 | 4.50 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 61.5 | 5.08 | 1.16 | 1.07 | 2.85 | 4.68 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 58.7 | 4.99 | 1.12 | 1.15 | 2.72 | 4.60 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 60.5 | 4.26 | 0.89 | 0.88 | 2.49 | 4.05 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 59.2 | 4.56 | 0.94 | 1.00 | 2.62 | 4.38 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 53.7 | 4.90 | 1.30 | 1.00 | 2.60 | 4.65 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 38.8 | 6.18 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 3.65 | 5.44 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 48.2 | 4.92 | 0.78 | 0.97 | 3.17 | 4.59 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 51.4 | 4.71 | 0.74 | 0.93 | 3.04 | 4.08 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 52.4 | 4.20 | 0.91 | 0.97 | 2.32 | 3.89 | 1.7% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-27 | Fine | $38,691 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-05 | Fine | $7,903 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-06-20 | Fine | $29,075 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-05 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-08-05 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2025-09-05 |
| 2025-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2025-07-20 |
| 2025-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-07-20 |
| 2025-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-07-20 |
| 2025-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-06-03 |
| 2025-06-05 | Health · complaint | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | F | 2025-07-20 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | K | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | F | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0836 | Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards. | C | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-04-30 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | F | 2025-04-30 |
| 2024-01-08 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-08 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | F | 2024-03-07 |
| 2024-01-08 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | F | 2024-03-07 |
| 2024-01-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-01-29 |
| 2024-01-08 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | C | 2024-02-15 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-01 |
| 2023-06-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-07-20 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | E | 2023-02-24 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0574 | The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands. | C | 2023-02-17 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | C | 2023-02-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | E | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0698 | Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2023-02-17 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-02-28 |
| 2023-01-17 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-02-22 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAPLE SPRINGS OF MATSU HOLDINGS, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 65% | 2017-08-17 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MAPLE SPRINGS | Other (financial or non-financial) | 33% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MAPLE SPRINGS | Other (financial or non-financial) | 33% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MAPLE SPTINGS | Other (financial or non-financial) | 33% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MAPLE SPTINGS | Other (financial or non-financial) | 33% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BRONSHIELD LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 9% | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MORPHEUS UNIVERSE | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 9% | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PISTIS MERCURY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 9% | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LARMED, LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 8% | 2019-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CHRISTENSEN, JESSE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JACHIMIEC, JESSICA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LARSEN, NICHOLAS | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LARSEN, NICHOLAS | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2019-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MAPLE SPRINGS MANAGEMENT LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MAPLE SPRINGS MANAGEMENT LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PATH ACCOUNTING LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NICHOLAS LARSEN | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2019-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MAPLE SPRINGS | Other (financial or non-financial) | 33% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MAPLE SPTINGS | Other (financial or non-financial) | 33% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| JESSE CHRISTENSEN | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JESSICA JACHIMIEC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICHOLAS LARSEN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | POLARIS TRANSITIONAL CARE | — | — | — | 50 | KORSIN HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Polaris Extended Care | — | — | — | 96 | KORSIN HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-07-10 | WILDFLOWER COURT | — | — | — | 57 | BARTLETT REGIONAL HOSPITAL |
| 2019-08-01 | SEARHC SITKA LONG TERM CARE | — | — | — | 19 | SOUTHEAST ALASKA REGIONAL HEALTH CONSORTIUM |
| 2018-11-01 | WRANGELL MEDICAL CENTER LTC | — | — | — | 18 | SOUTHEAST ALASKA REGIONAL HEALTH CONSORTIUM |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 02170 | acs median gross | 0 | $850 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 02170 | fmr | 0 | $1,015 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 02170 | acs median gross | 1 | $946 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 02170 | fmr | 1 | $1,049 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 02170 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,228 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 02170 | fmr | 2 | $1,376 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 02170 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,753 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 02170 | fmr | 3 | $1,914 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 02170 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,135 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 02170 | fmr | 4 | $2,308 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 02170 | acs median gross | $1,299 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 02170 | acs recent mover gross | $1,293 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 99645 | acs median gross | 0 | $896 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99645 | acs median gross | 1 | $819 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99645 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,291 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99645 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,738 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99645 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,234 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99645 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,607 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 99645 | acs median gross | $1,332 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 99645 | acs recent mover gross | $1,348 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,177 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $963 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | safmr | 0 | $1,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,221 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $999 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | safmr | 1 | $1,110 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,595 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,305 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | safmr | 2 | $1,450 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,222 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,818 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | safmr | 3 | $2,020 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,673 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,187 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 99645 | safmr | 4 | $2,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |