910 COMPASSION CIRCLE, ANCHORAGE, AK 99504 · CCN 025018 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
89.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
50
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 89.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AK median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.54
5.91
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
2.10
1.50
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.98
5.78
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.76
5.97
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
47.9
4.54
2.10
0.38
2.06
3.98
4.1%
2025Q3
92
48.4
5.20
2.37
0.34
2.49
4.57
9.4%
2025Q2
91
46.3
4.19
1.80
0.26
2.13
3.84
8.3%
2025Q1
90
47.0
4.85
1.98
0.36
2.50
4.39
5.1%
2024Q4
92
47.6
5.05
1.89
0.31
2.85
4.63
4.9%
2024Q3
92
47.8
4.89
1.74
0.53
2.63
4.45
0.0%
2024Q2
91
47.6
4.98
1.59
0.68
2.71
4.44
0.0%
2024Q1
91
48.2
4.96
1.56
0.70
2.71
4.59
0.1%
2023Q4
92
46.1
5.43
1.82
0.54
3.08
5.00
3.8%
2023Q3
92
44.7
5.64
1.79
0.59
3.27
5.11
5.4%
2023Q2
91
44.8
5.39
1.75
0.55
3.09
5.00
1.2%
2023Q1
90
44.6
5.42
1.60
0.69
3.13
5.14
2.5%
2022Q4
92
46.4
4.95
1.36
0.53
3.05
4.60
3.9%
2022Q3
92
44.7
4.77
1.61
0.34
2.82
4.49
6.6%
2022Q2
91
43.5
4.51
1.45
0.45
2.61
4.14
6.1%
2022Q1
90
40.2
4.80
2.14
0.33
2.33
4.95
19.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
—
2025-11-21
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-08-20
2025-11-21
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2026-01-09
2025-11-21
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2026-01-09
2025-11-21
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-01-09
2025-11-21
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2026-01-09
2025-11-21
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2026-01-09
2025-11-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-01-09
2025-11-21
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-01-09
2025-11-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-01-09
2025-07-29
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-08-12
2025-07-29
Health · complaint
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
F
2025-08-12
2024-11-01
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2024-12-21
2024-11-01
Health
F0568
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
D
2024-12-21
2024-11-01
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-12-21
2024-11-01
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-12-21
2024-11-01
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-12-21
2024-11-01
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-12-21
2023-10-17
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
J
2023-10-19
2023-10-17
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
J
2023-10-19
2023-09-01
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-10-24
2023-09-01
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-10-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
14
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
CULLIFER, JARED
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOX, NEIL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOX, NEIL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
TIEVA, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLITS, ADAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-12
current
pecos_ownership
FLAGSTONE HEALTHCARE CENTRAL LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM WILLITS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JARED CULLIFER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL TIEVA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEIL HANCOX
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NEIL HANCOX
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,419,772
—
—
—
$2,048,819
2
—
2023-12-31
$3,423,638
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$3,424,721
—
—
—
$1,863,237
2
—
2021-12-31
$3,184,066
—
—
—
$1,878,293
2
—
2020-12-31
$3,769,628
—
—
—
$2,488,747
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 02020
acs median gross
0
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 02020
fmr
0
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 02020
acs median gross
1
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 02020
fmr
1
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 02020
acs median gross
2
$1,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 02020
fmr
2
$1,631
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 02020
acs median gross
3
$1,915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 02020
fmr
3
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 02020
acs median gross
4
$2,425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 02020
fmr
4
$2,736
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 02020
acs median gross
5
$1,785
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 02020
acs median gross
$1,489
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 02020
acs recent mover gross
$1,557
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 99504
acs median gross
0
$632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 99504
acs median gross
1
$927
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 99504
acs median gross
2
$1,517
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 99504
acs median gross
3
$1,823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 99504
acs median gross
4
$2,926
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 99504
acs median gross
$1,573
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 99504
acs recent mover gross
$1,303
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 99504
payment standard 110
0
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 90
0
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
safmr
0
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 110
1
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 90
1
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
safmr
1
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 110
2
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 90
2
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
safmr
2
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 110
3
$2,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 90
3
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
safmr
3
$2,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 110
4
$3,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
payment standard 90
4
$2,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 99504
safmr
4
$2,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.