Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,701–5,750

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5701	ASHBY PONDS INC	0.2%	62.6	A	VA	ASHBURN	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
5702	Gracepointe Crossing Gables	0.2%	62.6	A	MN	CAMBRIDGE	110	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
5703	Perry Lutheran Homes Eden Acres Campus	0.2%	62.6	B	IA	Perry	57	—
5704	North Auburn Care	0.2%	62.6	C	WA	AUBURN	125	CORNERSTONE 18 OPERATIONS LLC
5705	EASTCHESTER REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	NY	BRONX	200	—
5706	HAMPTON COURT NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	A	FL	NORTH MIAMI BEACH	120	—
5707	PARKWOOD IN THE PINES	0.2%	62.6	D	TX	LUFKIN	0	CITY OF ENNIS
5708	Avir at Beeville	0.2%	62.6	D	TX	Beeville	0	BELLVILLE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5709	AVERA BRADY HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	62.6	B	SD	MITCHELL	84	AVERA HEALTH
5710	Avir at Paris	0.2%	62.6	D	TX	PARIS	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5711	FERNWOOD SUPPORTIVE LIVING AT MADRONA GROVE	0.2%	62.6	A	OR	PORTLAND	16	—
5712	ADAMS COUNTY MANOR	0.2%	62.6	B	OH	WEST UNION	74	—
5713	HOBOKEN UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER TCU	0.2%	62.6	B	NJ	HOBOKEN	15	—
5714	Sage Bluff Health and Rehab Center	0.2%	62.6	C	IN	FORT WAYNE	84	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5715	PLANTATION NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	A	FL	PLANTATION	152	MILLENNIUM CONSOLIDATED LLC
5716	THE TERRACES AT LOS ALTOS HEALTH FACILITY	0.2%	62.6	A	CA	LOS ALTOS	30	HUMANGOOD NORCAL
5717	HURST PLAZA NURSING & REHAB	0.2%	62.6	A	TX	HURST	0	MAVERICK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5718	REGENCY CARE OF ROGUE VALLEY	0.2%	62.6	A	OR	GRANTS PASS	102	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
5719	CLARIDGE COURT	0.2%	62.6	C	KS	PRAIRIE VILLAGE	45	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
5720	Woodbriar Nursing Home	0.2%	62.6	A	AR	Harrisburg	80	CARE MANAGEMENT INC
5721	ALLIED SERVICES CENTER CITY SKILLED NURSING	0.2%	62.6	B	PA	WILKES BARRE	92	ALLIED SERVICES FOUNDATION
5722	WATERS OF RISING SUN, THE	0.2%	62.6	B	IN	RISING SUN	58	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5723	Trinity Nursing & Rehab of Granbury	0.2%	62.6	D	TX	Granbury	0	CITY OF ENNIS
5724	HALLETTSVILLE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	62.6	C	TX	HALLETTSVILLE	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5725	Millcreek Manor	0.2%	62.6	B	PA	ERIE	144	MILLCREEK HEALTH SYSTEM
5726	MT AIRY GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	OH	CINCINNATI	99	—
5727	INGLIS HOUSE	0.2%	62.6	C	PA	PHILADELPHIA	202	—
5728	WESTSIDE CARE CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	CT	MANCHESTER	162	APEX ADVISORS
5729	Edenbrook Omro	0.2%	62.6	A	WI	Omro	50	—
5730	Portland Care & Rehab Centre, INC	0.2%	62.6	B	CT	PORTLAND	65	—
5731	NEW VISTA NURSING & REHABILITATION CTR	0.2%	62.6	C	NJ	NEWARK	340	—
5732	ORCHARD REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.2%	62.6	A	NY	MEDINA	160	—
5733	PUREHEALTH TRANSITIONAL CARE AT THR ARLINGTON	0.2%	62.6	B	TX	ARLINGTON	0	KCCJ1 HOLDINGS LLC
5734	SERENITY SPRING SENIOR LIVING AT JASONVILLE	0.2%	62.6	B	IN	JASONVILLE	60	GREENE COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL
5735	HOLLYMEAD	0.2%	62.6	D	TX	FLOWER MOUND	0	—
5736	CYPRESS WOODS CARE CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	TX	ANGLETON	0	MAVERICK COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5737	GEORGE L MEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.2%	62.6	A	CA	KING CITY	48	—
5738	ENVOY OF STRATFORD HILLS	0.2%	62.6	—	VA	RICHMOND	196	—
5739	HUNTERDON CARE CENTER LLC	0.2%	62.6	B	NJ	FLEMINGTON	185	—
5740	River Haven Nursing And Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	62.6	F	KY	Paducah	103	—
5741	ELLIS NURSING HOME (THE)	0.2%	62.6	C	MA	NORWOOD	191	A FRANCHI CONTRACTORS INC
5742	PINE ACRES REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.2%	62.6	B	NJ	MADISON	102	—
5743	ACCOLADE PAXTON SENIOR LIVING	0.2%	62.6	B	IL	PAXTON	75	—
5744	Breathitt Health & Rehabilitation	0.2%	62.6	C	KY	Jackson	120	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
5745	GOLDEN AGE OF WELSH, LLC	0.2%	62.6	C	LA	WELSH	114	—
5746	THE HEIGHTS OF GONZALES	0.2%	62.6	B	TX	GONZALES	0	GONZALES HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS
5747	CEDARBROOK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	C	FL	FORT MYERS	120	—
5748	GRACELEN CARE CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	OR	PORTLAND	80	—
5749	Paradigm at the Creek	0.2%	62.6	F	TX	Wharton	0	OAKBEND MEDICAL CENTER
5750	TRIBORO CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	0.2%	62.6	B	NY	BRONX	515	—

Showing 5,701–5,750 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.