4180 SAGE BLUFF CROSSING, FORT WAYNE, IN 46804 · CCN 155827 · chain MAJOR HOSPITAL
Composite
79.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
84
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 79.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
CLAXTON RYAN
23 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
OFFERLE ANDREW
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.44
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.52
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.50
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.42
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
51.0
2.44
0.52
0.70
1.21
2.50
10.1%
2025Q3
92
47.9
2.72
0.45
0.80
1.47
2.72
9.4%
2025Q2
91
47.1
2.54
0.31
0.89
1.34
2.66
7.2%
2025Q1
90
52.7
2.00
0.31
0.80
0.88
2.03
0.3%
2024Q4
92
47.6
2.38
0.26
1.02
1.10
2.40
0.0%
2024Q3
92
48.8
2.47
0.23
1.13
1.11
2.49
2.7%
2024Q2
91
46.9
2.58
0.31
0.81
1.47
2.61
18.2%
2024Q1
91
50.0
2.47
0.39
0.71
1.38
2.55
23.9%
2023Q4
92
49.9
2.56
0.27
0.87
1.42
2.67
10.2%
2023Q3
92
47.3
2.68
0.22
0.94
1.52
2.57
10.8%
2023Q2
91
46.5
2.60
0.28
0.82
1.50
2.42
0.6%
2023Q1
90
50.5
2.57
0.38
0.75
1.45
2.47
0.2%
2022Q4
92
46.2
2.91
0.51
0.65
1.75
2.85
6.6%
2022Q3
92
43.8
3.31
0.62
0.68
2.01
3.39
18.3%
2022Q2
91
47.0
3.36
0.54
0.71
2.11
3.02
52.8%
2022Q1
90
49.9
3.55
0.34
0.82
2.39
3.41
52.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 14E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-21
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-02-02
2025-05-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-05-23
2025-03-24
Health · complaint
F0675
Honor each resident's preferences, choices, values and beliefs.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-24
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-04-18
2024-11-07
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-12-02
2024-11-07
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-12-02
2024-11-07
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-12-02
2024-11-07
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2024-12-02
2024-07-23
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-07-11
2024-07-23
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-07-11
2024-07-23
Health · complaint
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-08-05
2024-01-05
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-01-24
2024-01-05
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-01-24
2023-12-11
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-01-05
2023-12-11
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2024-01-05
2023-12-11
Health
F0743
Ensure that a resident does not develop patterns of decreased social interaction and/or increased withdrawn, angry, or depressive behaviors, unless unavoidable.
D
2024-01-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LTC IV
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
50%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CLAXTON, RYAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-03-27
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-20
current
pecos_ownership
LENON, ISAAC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-19
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE INVESTMENTS IV, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LTC IV
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OFFERLE, ANDREW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAGE BLUFF HEALTH & REHAB CENTER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAGE BLUFF HEALTH & REHAB CENTER LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
MAJOR HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LTC IV
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
50%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ANDREW OFFERLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC LENON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN CLAXTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$968,758
—
—
$229,748
$48,830
6
propco
2023-12-31
$1,402,929
—
—
$352,977
$3,352
6
propco
2022-12-31
$1,414,749
—
—
$334,069
$11,365
6
propco
2021-12-31
$1,479,003
$740,556
—
$414,180
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$1,457,860
$740,556
—
$391,724
$24,080
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18003
acs median gross
0
$867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
0
$892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
1
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
1
$916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
2
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
2
$1,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
3
$1,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
3
$1,381
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
4
$1,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
5
$1,265
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
acs median gross
$1,021
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
acs recent mover gross
$1,142
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46804
acs median gross
0
$962
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46804
acs median gross
1
$1,070
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46804
acs median gross
2
$1,270
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46804
acs median gross
3
$1,314
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46804
acs median gross
4
$1,456
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46804
acs median gross
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46804
acs recent mover gross
$1,529
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 46804
payment standard 110
0
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 90
0
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
safmr
0
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 110
1
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 90
1
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
safmr
1
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 110
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 90
2
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
safmr
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 110
3
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 90
3
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
safmr
3
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 110
4
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
payment standard 90
4
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46804
safmr
4
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.