Reads as: riskier than 49.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BRIGHTON CONSULTING GROUP LLC
17 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
1.81
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.51
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
1.93
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
47.7
1.81
0.46
0.14
1.21
1.51
0.0%
2025Q3
92
48.1
1.85
0.35
0.20
1.29
1.54
1.9%
2025Q2
91
46.6
2.05
0.30
0.25
1.49
1.64
3.8%
2025Q1
90
46.2
1.93
0.40
0.14
1.39
1.53
0.0%
2024Q4
92
48.5
1.83
0.36
0.16
1.31
1.36
0.0%
2024Q3
92
46.8
1.67
0.37
0.18
1.12
1.26
0.0%
2024Q2
91
45.9
1.66
0.44
0.17
1.05
1.25
0.0%
2024Q1
91
43.8
1.75
0.39
0.20
1.16
1.33
0.0%
2023Q4
92
43.0
1.52
0.37
0.23
0.93
1.17
0.0%
2023Q3
92
36.5
1.73
0.47
0.39
0.88
1.51
0.0%
2023Q2
91
36.1
1.68
0.43
0.44
0.82
1.59
1.1%
2023Q1
90
35.2
1.97
0.36
0.33
1.28
1.70
31.9%
2022Q4
92
37.0
2.18
0.47
0.16
1.55
1.91
22.8%
2022Q3
92
20.7
3.29
1.18
0.11
2.00
3.33
14.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-12-23
2025-10-30
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-11-18
2025-10-30
Health · complaint
F0943
Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.
D
2025-11-18
2025-06-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-08
2025-06-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-07-08
2025-06-26
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2025-07-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
43
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LUTHERAN HOME FOR THE AGED ASSOCIATION-WEST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
ADAIR, COLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
BRIGHTON CONSULTING GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARLSON, CURTIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
CARRICK, ANTOINETTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS, LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
GANNON, MELISSA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
GANNON, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
GANNON, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
GERKEN, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GROTHE, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAERTHER, SARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
HARKER, NANCY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
HILSENBECK, GENEEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
KOELIN, DEBRA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KRUSE, KURT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
LUCHT, DEBRA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
MARTENS, DENNIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARTENS, DENNIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
MCCAULLEY, RANDALL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCVEY, ANITA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERRILL, ESTHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-30
current
pecos_ownership
METZ, ALAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
METZ, ALAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NCS HEALTHCARE OF IOWA, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHILLIPS, MAX
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROEDERER, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-03
current
pecos_ownership
ROTHFUS, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
SOHN, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1998-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOHN, STEVEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
WHEELDON, RHONDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-02-10
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, CAROLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
ALAN METZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTOINETTE CARRICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAROLE WHITE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CURTIS CARLSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA LUCHT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENNIS MARTENS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK GERKEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA GANNON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY HARKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDALL MCCAULLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-08-31
$157,845
—
—
—
—
1
—
2024-08-31
$161,598
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-08-31
$161,392
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-08-31
$68,650
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19049
acs median gross
0
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19049
fmr
0
$1,063
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19049
acs median gross
1
$1,131
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19049
fmr
1
$1,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19049
acs median gross
2
$1,382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19049
fmr
2
$1,318
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19049
acs median gross
3
$1,562
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19049
fmr
3
$1,794
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19049
acs median gross
4
$1,467
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19049
fmr
4
$1,841
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19049
acs median gross
5
$2,065
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19049
acs median gross
$1,311
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19049
acs recent mover gross
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50220
acs median gross
1
$666
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50220
acs median gross
2
$920
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50220
acs median gross
3
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50220
acs median gross
4
$1,177
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50220
acs median gross
$938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50220
acs recent mover gross
$986
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 50220
payment standard 110
0
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 90
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
safmr
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 110
1
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 90
1
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
safmr
1
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 110
2
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 90
2
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
safmr
2
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 110
3
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 90
3
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
safmr
3
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 110
4
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
payment standard 90
4
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50220
safmr
4
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.