Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

501–550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
501	COLVILLE TRIBAL CONVALESCENT C	4.6%	96.7	A	WA	NESPELEM	44	—
502	St Patrick's Manor	4.6%	96.7	B	MA	FRAMINGHAM	333	—
503	WAYNE COUNTY CARE CENTER	4.6%	96.7	A	OH	WOOSTER	50	—
504	CLINTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	4.6%	96.7	B	NY	PLATTSBURGH	80	—
505	COALINGA REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR DP/SNF	4.6%	96.7	A	CA	COALINGA	99	—
506	Gracewell, An Eventide Community	4.6%	96.7	A	IA	Denison	84	—
507	COLUMBIA LUTHERAN HOME	4.6%	96.7	B	WA	SEATTLE	116	—
508	Morrisons Cove Home	4.6%	96.7	A	PA	MARTINSBURG	114	—
509	DAUGHTERS OF ISRAEL PLEASANT VALLEY HOME	4.6%	96.7	B	NJ	WEST ORANGE	303	—
510	THE VALLEY VIEW CENTER FOR NURSING CARE AND REHAB	4.6%	96.7	C	NY	GOSHEN	360	—
511	Hillcrest Manor Nursing Center	4.6%	96.7	D	OK	Blackwell	137	—
512	SEMINOLE MANOR NURSING HOME	4.6%	96.7	A	GA	DONALSONVILLE	75	—
513	Marian Manor Of Taunton	4.6%	96.7	C	MA	TAUNTON	116	—
514	Breckinridge Place	4.5%	96.7	A	KY	Morganfield	24	—
515	TREGO CO-LEMKE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL LTCU	4.5%	96.7	A	KS	WAKEENEY	37	—
516	POLO REHABILITATION & HCC	4.5%	96.6	A	IL	POLO	81	XCH LLC
517	SCOTCHMAN LIVING CENTER	4.5%	96.6	A	SD	PHILIP	42	—
518	EGER HEALTH CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	4.5%	96.6	D	NY	STATEN ISLAND	378	—
519	AURELIA OSBORN FOX MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	4.5%	96.6	A	NY	ONEONTA	131	—
520	ST CAMILLUS HEALTH CENTER	4.5%	96.6	B	WI	WAUWATOSA	50	—
521	MORNINGSIDE CENTER	4.5%	96.6	A	MO	CHILLICOTHE	60	—
522	ISLAND HOME PARK HEALTH AND REHAB	4.5%	96.6	A	TN	KNOXVILLE	95	—
523	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT COUNTRY HOUSE	4.5%	96.6	A	DE	WILMINGTON	14	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
524	CHASEHEALTH REHAB AND RESIDENTIAL CARE	4.5%	96.6	B	NY	NEW BERLIN	80	—
525	SUNPORCH OF DODGE CITY	4.5%	96.6	A	KS	DODGE CITY	45	—
526	Cook Community Hospital C&NC	4.5%	96.6	A	MN	COOK	28	—
527	Rock County Hospital Long Term Care	4.5%	96.6	A	NE	Bassett	30	—
528	Penn Nursing Center	4.5%	96.6	B	NC	Reidsville	82	—
529	WILLOW CARE NURSING HOME	4.5%	96.6	B	MO	WILLOW SPRINGS	105	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
530	AUGUSTA MEDICAL CTR SKILLED CA	4.5%	96.6	A	VA	FISHERSVILLE	17	—
531	THE ARMY RESIDENCE COMMUNITY HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.5%	96.5	A	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	THE ARMY RETIREMENT RESIDENCE FOUNDATIONSAN ANTONIO
532	Fellowship Village	4.5%	96.5	A	IA	Inwood	40	—
533	Marian Home	4.5%	96.5	A	IA	Fort Dodge	90	—
534	St John's Health Sage Living	4.5%	96.5	A	WY	Jackson	60	—
535	CRANDALL NURSING HOME	4.5%	96.5	A	OH	SEBRING	150	—
536	HERITAGE PARK REHAB & SKILLED NURSING	4.5%	96.5	B	NY	JAMESTOWN	146	—
537	CHRISTIAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.5%	96.5	C	WA	LYNDEN	122	—
538	WHITE PINE CARE CENTER	4.4%	96.5	D	NV	ELY	97	—
539	Estelline Nursing and Care Center	4.4%	96.5	A	SD	ESTELLINE	60	—
540	BATTLE MOUNTAIN GENERAL HOSPITAL	4.4%	96.5	A	NV	BATTLE MOUNTAIN	25	—
541	AVIATA AT OLDSMAR	4.4%	96.5	D	FL	OLDSMAR	120	—
542	HILL TOP HOUSE	4.4%	96.5	A	KS	BUCKLIN	29	—
543	NATHAN LITTAUER HOSPITAL NURSING HOME	4.4%	96.5	B	NY	GLOVERSVILLE	84	—
544	JEANNE JUGAN CENTER	4.4%	96.5	A	MO	KANSAS CITY	52	—
545	WI Veterans Hm Ainsworth Hall	4.4%	96.4	A	WI	King	198	STATE OF WISCONSIN
546	Idaho State Veterans Home - Lewiston	4.4%	96.4	A	ID	Lewiston	66	—
547	COASTAL MANOR	4.4%	96.4	A	GA	LUDOWICI	108	—
548	CROWN CENTER AT LAUREL LAKE	4.4%	96.4	A	OH	HUDSON	75	—
549	WESLEY VILLAGE	4.4%	96.4	A	IL	MACOMB	73	—
550	PEMBILIER NURSING CENTER	4.4%	96.4	A	ND	WALHALLA	31	—

Showing 501–550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.