Reads as: riskier than 12.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.92
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.81
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.97
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
64.0
3.92
0.39
1.17
2.36
3.81
14.6%
2025Q3
92
68.4
3.72
0.25
1.24
2.24
3.63
24.8%
2025Q1
90
62.9
3.72
0.26
1.28
2.18
3.69
49.5%
2024Q4
92
63.3
2.84
0.23
1.09
1.53
3.06
25.0%
2024Q3
92
58.6
2.08
0.17
0.93
0.98
2.07
0.0%
2024Q2
91
66.3
2.33
0.20
0.86
1.26
2.25
0.0%
2024Q1
91
65.7
2.40
0.32
0.84
1.24
2.35
0.1%
2023Q4
92
64.2
3.04
0.28
1.11
1.64
2.94
30.1%
2023Q3
92
62.5
3.46
0.40
1.13
1.92
3.06
23.1%
2023Q2
91
60.4
2.77
0.39
0.93
1.46
2.33
3.0%
2023Q1
90
57.4
3.12
0.50
1.09
1.53
2.60
0.0%
2022Q4
92
55.2
4.93
0.55
1.50
2.88
4.36
29.7%
2022Q3
92
54.0
3.81
0.56
1.11
2.14
3.46
0.0%
2022Q2
91
49.7
0.99
0.00
0.32
0.67
1.03
100.0%
2022Q1
90
51.6
3.12
0.31
1.04
1.77
3.12
32.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-08-22
2025-08-04
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-08-22
2024-10-28
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-11-08
2024-06-25
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-07-12
2024-05-01
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-06-14
2023-08-17
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-17
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-17
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2023-10-19
2023-08-17
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-10-19
2023-08-17
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-10-19
2021-08-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2021-09-17
2019-05-02
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
E
2019-06-05
2019-05-02
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
B
2019-06-05
2019-05-02
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2019-06-05
2019-05-02
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2019-06-05
2019-05-02
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2019-06-05
2019-05-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2019-06-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COVAS, STEPANIE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2012-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
COVAS, STEPANIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-12-13
current
pecos_ownership
DENK, MIKE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GARRO, JOAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MULLIGAN, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MURPHY, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSTER, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2005-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEVENS, LORETTA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID OSTER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2005-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN GARRO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MULLIGAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORETTA STEVENS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2017-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH MURPHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIKE DENK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPANIE COVAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-12-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPANIE COVAS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2012-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39153
acs median gross
0
$844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
0
$904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
1
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
1
$985
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
2
$1,080
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
2
$1,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
3
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
3
$1,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
4
$1,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
4
$1,681
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
5
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
acs median gross
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
acs recent mover gross
$1,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44236
acs median gross
1
$2,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44236
acs median gross
2
$2,944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44236
acs median gross
3
$1,878
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44236
acs median gross
4
$1,707
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44236
acs median gross
$2,322
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44236
payment standard 110
0
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 90
0
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
safmr
0
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 110
1
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 90
1
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
safmr
1
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 110
2
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 90
2
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
safmr
2
$1,900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 110
3
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 90
3
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
safmr
3
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 110
4
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
payment standard 90
4
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44236
safmr
4
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.