Reads as: riskier than 11.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.17
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.63
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.38
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
111.8
4.17
0.46
1.18
2.53
3.63
18.2%
2025Q3
92
106.1
4.11
0.49
1.07
2.54
3.62
14.6%
2025Q2
91
111.5
3.96
0.45
0.98
2.52
3.48
10.9%
2025Q1
90
113.8
3.95
0.41
1.07
2.47
3.49
10.3%
2024Q4
92
116.5
3.80
0.43
1.07
2.30
3.36
11.0%
2024Q3
92
116.3
3.80
0.36
1.05
2.39
3.28
9.0%
2024Q2
91
117.7
3.77
0.36
1.11
2.29
3.21
8.9%
2024Q1
91
120.2
3.64
0.36
1.10
2.17
3.10
6.2%
2023Q4
92
118.5
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100.0%
2023Q3
92
117.3
3.65
0.43
1.02
2.19
3.08
5.5%
2023Q2
91
117.5
3.60
0.48
1.02
2.10
3.02
10.1%
2023Q1
90
120.0
3.33
0.50
1.08
1.75
2.79
0.0%
2022Q4
92
116.5
3.16
0.41
1.06
1.70
2.65
0.0%
2022Q3
92
117.3
3.30
0.39
1.14
1.78
2.75
0.0%
2022Q2
91
118.1
3.07
0.32
0.98
1.77
2.67
0.0%
2022Q1
90
119.0
3.19
0.35
1.07
1.77
2.80
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
C × 2D × 7E × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
—
2025-03-20
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-04-25
2025-03-20
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-04-25
2025-03-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2025-04-25
2025-03-20
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-04-25
2025-01-16
Health · complaint
F0713
Provide or arrange emergency care by a doctor 24 hours a day.
D
2025-02-19
2022-09-01
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
C
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2022-09-30
2019-09-26
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2019-11-07
2019-09-26
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
E
2019-11-07
2019-09-26
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
E
2019-11-07
2019-09-26
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
C
2019-11-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CASERTA, DANIELE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DRAKULICH, TOM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GANT, TOM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIKO, RUSSELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANNION, DAVID
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
MANNION, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MENDEL, RON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, CRAIG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEW, GREG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROOSE, RANDI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-01-30
current
pecos_ownership
SCARPITTI, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, BILL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRAIG MYERS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIELE CASERTA
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREG NEW
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RON MENDEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL KIKO
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM DRAKULICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2021-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM GANT
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BILL WILLIAMS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MANNION
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MANNION
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN SCARPITTI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDI ROOSE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-01-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39099
acs median gross
0
$595
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
0
$735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
1
$652
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
1
$771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
2
$823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
3
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
4
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
4
$1,345
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
5
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
acs median gross
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
acs recent mover gross
$885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44672
acs median gross
1
$1,706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44672
acs median gross
2
$2,062
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44672
acs median gross
3
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44672
acs median gross
4
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44672
acs median gross
$1,213
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44672
payment standard 110
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 90
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
safmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 110
1
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 90
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
safmr
1
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 110
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 90
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
safmr
3
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 110
4
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
payment standard 90
4
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44672
safmr
4
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.