Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

51–100

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
51	Five Counties Nursing Home	15.3%	99.7	B	SD	LEMMON	38	—
52	BETHESDA HOME	15.3%	99.7	B	KS	GOESSEL	57	—
53	Gold Crest Retirement Center	15.2%	99.7	A	NE	Adams	52	—
54	Menno-Olivet Care Center	15.2%	99.7	A	SD	MENNO	41	—
55	CHEYENNE MANOR	15.1%	99.7	A	CO	CHEYENNE WELLS	39	—
56	Sun Dial Manor	15.1%	99.6	A	SD	BRISTOL	37	—
57	SAINT JOHN XXIII HOME	15.1%	99.6	B	PA	HERMITAGE	90	—
58	GOLDEN GOOD SHEPHERD HOME	14.9%	99.6	B	IL	GOLDEN	46	—
59	COMMUNITY SPRINGS HEALTHCARE FACILITY	14.7%	99.6	C	MO	EL DORADO SPRINGS	120	—
60	Majestic Care of Lakin	14.7%	99.6	D	WV	WEST COLUMBIA	136	—
61	BROOKHAVEN AT LEXINGTON	14.5%	99.6	A	MA	LEXINGTON	49	—
62	BRITISH HOME, THE	14.5%	99.6	B	IL	BROOKFIELD	72	—
63	ST JOHN'S LUTHERAN HOME	14.4%	99.6	A	MT	BILLINGS	186	—
64	CROCKETT COUNTY CARE CENTER	14.4%	99.6	A	TX	OZONA	50	—
65	AVIR AT MONAHANS	14.3%	99.6	B	TX	MONAHANS	92	—
66	COVENANT HOME	14.3%	99.6	B	LA	NEW ORLEANS	96	—
67	MEMORIAL MANOR NURSING HOME	14.3%	99.6	A	GA	BAINBRIDGE	107	—
68	MINNEOLA DISTRICT HOSPITAL LTCU	14.1%	99.6	A	KS	MINNEOLA	26	—
69	MARY, QUEEN AND MOTHER CENTER	14.1%	99.6	D	MO	SHREWSBURY	217	—
70	MEADOWVIEW HEALTHCARE AND REHAB	14.1%	99.6	C	AR	HUNTSVILLE	105	—
71	PRAIRIE ACRES	13.9%	99.5	B	TX	FRIONA	83	—
72	DEWITT NURSING HOME	13.8%	99.5	B	AR	DE WITT	60	—
73	Avir at Graham	13.7%	99.5	A	TX	GRAHAM	116	COUNTY OF THROCKMORTON
74	TOWNE HOUSE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	13.7%	99.5	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	32	BHI SENIOR LIVING INC
75	Westminster Health & Rehab Center	13.6%	99.5	A	SC	Rock Hill	11	—
76	Callaway Good Life Center, Inc	13.5%	99.5	B	NE	CALLAWAY	38	—
77	MercyOne Dyersville Senior Care	13.5%	99.5	A	IA	Dyersville	40	—
78	PARKSIDE HOMES	13.4%	99.5	C	KS	HILLSBORO	50	—
79	Scottish Rite Park Inc	13.4%	99.5	A	IA	Des Moines	51	—
80	COMMUNITY HEALTH CENTER	13.3%	99.5	A	OK	WAKITA	52	—
81	The Gardens of Taylor Glen Retirement Community	13.3%	99.5	A	NC	Concord	24	BAPTIST RETIREMENT HOMES OF NORTH CAROLINA INCORPORATED
82	ST. ANNE'S HOME	13.3%	99.5	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	46	—
83	WILLAMETTE VIEW HEALTH CENTER	13.2%	99.5	A	OR	MILWAUKIE	6	—
84	Sterling Nursing and Rehab	13.1%	99.5	A	TX	STERLING CITY	44	—
85	MOUNTAIN VISTA HEALTH CENTER	12.9%	99.5	B	CO	WHEAT RIDGE	168	—
86	Coos County Nursing Hospital	12.7%	99.4	A	NH	WEST STEWARTSTOWN	97	—
87	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME	12.7%	99.4	D	MO	BRAYMER	83	GOLDEN AGE NURSING HOME DISTRICT
88	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE OF HOMER	12.7%	99.4	B	LA	HOMER	79	—
89	Jefferson Community Health & Life Gardenside	12.6%	99.4	A	NE	Fairbury	39	—
90	PARK REST HARDIN COUNTY HEALTH CENTER	12.4%	99.4	A	TN	SAVANNAH	62	—
91	Belgrade Nursing Home	12.4%	99.4	A	MN	BELGRADE	34	—
92	KNOX COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT	12.3%	99.4	A	MO	EDINA	60	—
93	SISKIN SUBACUTE WEST	12.3%	99.4	B	TN	CHATTANOOGA	108	—
94	ST CATHERINE OF SIENA	12.3%	99.4	C	NJ	CALDWELL	30	—
95	EDEN VILLAGE CARE CENTER	12.3%	99.4	A	IL	GLEN CARBON	107	—
96	Beaver City Manor	12.2%	99.4	A	NE	Beaver City	30	—
97	Memorial Healthcare Center	12.1%	99.4	A	MI	Owosso	39	—
98	GOOD SAMARITAN LIVING CENTER	12.0%	99.4	D	LA	FRANKLINTON	84	—
99	JOHN KNOX VILLAGE CARE CENTER	12.0%	99.4	C	MO	LEES SUMMIT	324	PREMIERLIFE
100	GRACEWOOD NSG FACILITY(UNIT 9)	11.9%	99.4	A	GA	GRACEWOOD	56	—

Showing 51–100 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.