2909 Woodland Avenue, Des Moines, IA 50312 · CCN 165593
Composite
29.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
51
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 29.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
OCONNER MICHAEL
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.81
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.74
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.16
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.07
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
28.7
3.81
0.74
0.80
2.27
3.16
0.0%
2025Q3
92
28.1
3.79
0.80
0.71
2.29
3.29
0.0%
2025Q2
91
31.1
3.72
0.70
0.68
2.34
3.13
0.0%
2025Q1
90
30.4
3.72
0.81
0.65
2.26
3.16
0.0%
2024Q4
92
29.7
3.48
0.76
0.58
2.14
3.55
0.0%
2024Q3
92
32.2
3.10
0.76
0.31
2.03
2.75
0.0%
2024Q2
91
26.9
3.41
0.91
0.38
2.12
2.82
0.0%
2024Q1
91
27.1
3.70
0.99
0.38
2.33
3.64
0.0%
2023Q4
92
28.9
3.38
0.88
0.45
2.05
3.15
0.0%
2023Q3
92
25.7
3.69
1.05
0.40
2.24
3.41
0.0%
2023Q2
91
27.0
3.17
1.09
0.32
1.77
3.05
0.0%
2023Q1
90
27.8
3.25
1.03
0.32
1.91
2.97
0.0%
2022Q4
92
30.9
3.00
0.90
0.26
1.85
3.06
0.0%
2022Q3
92
29.9
2.94
0.91
0.25
1.78
2.71
0.0%
2022Q2
91
30.3
3.07
0.99
0.28
1.79
2.88
0.0%
2022Q1
90
28.8
3.10
0.96
0.28
1.86
2.83
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2025-07-02
2025-06-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-02
2025-01-08
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-10-15
2025-01-08
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-01-24
2024-07-18
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2024-08-01
2024-07-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-08-01
2024-07-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-08-12
2023-05-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-05-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALLEN, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-05-07
current
pecos_ownership
BOOR, DANIEL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2009-02-02
current
pecos_ownership
CLARK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
CLARK, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-04-20
current
pecos_ownership
DAWLEY, ELIZABETH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2009-02-02
current
pecos_ownership
ERLBACHER, EDWARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-05-06
current
pecos_ownership
GALLAGHER, JOHNA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-05-17
current
pecos_ownership
GHRIST, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
KOCH, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
LINDER, ALLISON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
OCONNER, MICHAEL
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
PITTMAN, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
PITTMAN, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-05-07
current
pecos_ownership
SCHARNBERG, SUSAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
SCHARNBERG, SUSAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIS, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-05-06
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIS, DONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
ALLISON LINDER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
13%
2023-05-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN SCHARNBERG
CORPORATE OFFICER
13%
2023-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD WILLIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
11%
2024-05-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD ERLBACHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
11%
2024-05-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL BOOR
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2009-02-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD WILLIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH DAWLEY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2009-02-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN GHRIST
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PITTMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PITTMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHNA GALLAGHER
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-05-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK ALLEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK CLARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK CLARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-04-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL OCONNER
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2019-07-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD KOCH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-05-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN SCHARNBERG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19153
acs median gross
0
$926
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19153
fmr
0
$1,063
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19153
acs median gross
1
$963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19153
fmr
1
$1,109
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19153
acs median gross
2
$1,169
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19153
fmr
2
$1,318
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19153
acs median gross
3
$1,497
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19153
fmr
3
$1,794
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19153
acs median gross
4
$1,605
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19153
fmr
4
$1,841
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19153
acs median gross
5
$1,834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19153
acs median gross
$1,149
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19153
acs recent mover gross
$1,235
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50312
acs median gross
0
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50312
acs median gross
1
$935
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50312
acs median gross
2
$1,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50312
acs median gross
3
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50312
acs median gross
4
$1,172
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50312
acs median gross
$1,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 50312
acs recent mover gross
$1,251
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 50312
payment standard 110
0
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 90
0
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
safmr
0
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 110
1
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 90
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
safmr
1
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 110
2
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 90
2
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
safmr
2
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 110
3
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 90
3
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
safmr
3
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 110
4
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
payment standard 90
4
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 50312
safmr
4
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.