Composite
28.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 90.0 | 77.4 | 0.30 | 0.2857 | 25.71 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 36.2 | 25.7 | 0.30 | 0.2857 | 10.34 | in index |
| chow risk | 28.3 | 33.9 | 0.15 | 0.1429 | 4.04 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2857 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 23.8 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 44.0 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 77.4 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 12.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 25.7 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| financial risk | 81.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 61.7 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 67.3 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 77.2 | D | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 25.6 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 25.6 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.63 | +0.19 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.63 | +0.49 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.71 | +0.31 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.91 | +0.13 |
| 2025Q3 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.91 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.59 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.03 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 37.9 | 2.91 | 0.39 | 0.64 | 1.88 | 2.59 | 4.8% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 37.7 | 2.78 | 0.40 | 0.61 | 1.76 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 38.2 | 2.42 | 0.38 | 0.70 | 1.34 | 2.25 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 39.3 | 2.36 | 0.38 | 0.67 | 1.30 | 2.00 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 38.8 | 2.19 | 0.38 | 0.61 | 1.20 | 1.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 38.1 | 2.44 | 0.46 | 0.60 | 1.38 | 2.16 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 37.7 | 2.57 | 0.52 | 0.54 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 38.3 | 2.23 | 0.50 | 0.49 | 1.24 | 2.17 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 37.4 | 2.15 | 0.43 | 0.53 | 1.20 | 1.93 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 37.5 | 2.02 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 1.17 | 1.83 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 37.9 | 2.05 | 0.26 | 0.58 | 1.20 | 1.84 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 37.3 | 1.69 | 0.03 | 0.44 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 36.5 | 1.78 | 0.07 | 0.41 | 1.30 | 1.33 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 37.4 | 1.53 | 0.17 | 0.26 | 1.10 | 1.28 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 37.3 | 1.51 | 0.18 | 0.23 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-14 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | G | 2025-09-19 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | E | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0607 | Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft. | E | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | C | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | F | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2024-03-01 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | E | 2024-03-01 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0567 | Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs. | C | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | C | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0606 | Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft. | D | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | K | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2020-11-27 |
| 2020-09-30 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2020-11-27 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | B | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0606 | Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft. | D | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0728 | Ensure that nurse aides who have worked more than 4 months, are trained and competent; and nurse aides who have worked less than 4 months are enrolled in appropriate training. | D | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2019-04-05 |
| 2019-02-21 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2019-04-05 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KNOX COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| BERRY, KEN | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2021-03-24 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EARLY, CONNIE | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-11-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HAMLIN, TOM | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2022-04-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MURRY, KATLIND | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-07-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PALMER, LINDA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2022-10-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SAYRES, BRENDA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2022-10-27 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STRANGE, LORI | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WITHEROW, PAMELA | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2021-04-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRENDA SAYRES | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2022-10-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CONNIE EARLY | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-11-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATLIND MURRY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-07-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KEN BERRY | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2021-03-24 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LINDA PALMER | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2022-10-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LORI STRANGE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PAMELA WITHEROW | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2021-04-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TOM HAMLIN | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2022-04-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29103 | acs median gross | 0 | $610 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29103 | fmr | 0 | $660 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29103 | acs median gross | 1 | $500 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29103 | fmr | 1 | $677 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29103 | acs median gross | 2 | $689 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29103 | fmr | 2 | $888 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29103 | acs median gross | 3 | $678 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29103 | fmr | 3 | $1,086 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29103 | fmr | 4 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29103 | acs median gross | $666 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29103 | acs recent mover gross | $658 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 63537 | acs median gross | 1 | $533 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63537 | acs median gross | 2 | $711 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63537 | acs median gross | 3 | $661 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 63537 | acs median gross | $655 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $748 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $612 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | safmr | 0 | $680 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | safmr | 1 | $700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,012 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $828 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | safmr | 2 | $920 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,243 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,017 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | safmr | 3 | $1,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,507 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,233 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 63537 | safmr | 4 | $1,370 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |