Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,901–3,950

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3901	ABERDEEN HEIGHTS	0.5%	74.3	A	MO	KIRKWOOD	38	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
3902	Lutheran Home Of Southbury Inc	0.5%	74.3	B	CT	SOUTHBURY	120	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
3903	AVALON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	74.3	B	GA	NEWNAN	90	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3904	SWISS VILLA NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.5%	74.3	C	IN	VEVAY	72	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3905	COVENANT VILLAGE CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.3	A	CA	TURLOCK	50	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
3906	CRESTVIEW RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.5%	74.3	A	TX	BRYAN	0	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
3907	Aston Park Health Care Center	0.5%	74.3	A	NC	Asheville	120	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
3908	INGLEMOOR REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.3	B	NJ	LIVINGSTON	138	—
3909	ST MARY'S D'YOUVILLE PAVILION	0.5%	74.3	A	ME	LEWISTON	210	COVENANT HEALTH
3910	OAKRIDGE OF PLATTSBURG	0.5%	74.3	B	MO	PLATTSBURG	60	—
3911	LaGrange Trails of Journey LLC	0.5%	74.3	B	GA	LAGRANGE	138	—
3912	SENIOR CARE CENTER - BRUNSWICK	0.5%	74.3	C	GA	BRUNSWICK	200	SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HEALTH SYSTEM INC
3913	ST ROSE CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.3	A	ND	LAMOURE	36	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
3914	BELL AVENUE NURSING CENTER	0.5%	74.3	C	OK	ELK CITY	90	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
3915	South County Eden Operations LLC DBA Lakeside Nurs	0.5%	74.3	D	RI	North Kingstown	120	—
3916	HAYES CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.5%	74.3	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	34	—
3917	PERRY COUNTY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	74.3	B	AR	PERRYVILLE	95	—
3918	WESTMINSTER ST AUGUSTINE	0.5%	74.3	A	FL	SAINT AUGUSTINE	30	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
3919	GARDENS OF MAYFIELD VILLAGE	0.5%	74.3	D	OH	MAYFIELD HEIGHTS	99	—
3920	Aspen Health and Rehab	0.5%	74.3	D	OK	Broken Arrow	126	—
3921	GLEN OAKS NURSING CENTER	0.5%	74.3	A	MS	LUCEDALE	45	—
3922	CURA OF ONAMIA	0.5%	74.3	A	MN	ONAMIA	57	TF MANAGEMENT LLC
3923	HERITAGE OF HUDSON	0.5%	74.3	B	OH	HUDSON	80	—
3924	HICKORY CREEK AT NEW CASTLE	0.5%	74.3	A	IN	NEW CASTLE	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3925	WESTERN SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.5%	74.3	A	OK	BUFFALO	76	BRIDGES ESOP INC
3926	RIVER OAKS RETIREMENT MANOR	0.5%	74.3	A	LA	LAFAYETTE	100	—
3927	BARRINGTON OF CARMEL, THE	0.5%	74.3	B	IN	CARMEL	8	BHI RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES INC
3928	FIRST COAST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	74.3	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	100	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
3929	FOSTER HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	0.5%	74.3	D	IL	CHICAGO	46	—
3930	FOWLER HEALTH CARE	0.5%	74.3	A	CO	FOWLER	45	—
3931	EDENBROOK OF PLATTEVILLE	0.5%	74.3	B	WI	PLATTEVILLE	80	—
3932	UNIVERSITY PARK SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY MEMORY	0.5%	74.3	B	OK	TAHLEQUAH	139	BRIDGES ESOP INC
3933	Corewell Health Rehab & Nursing Center-Commons Far	0.5%	74.3	D	MI	Farmington Hills	179	—
3934	Tiffany Square	0.5%	74.3	A	NE	Grand Island	103	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
3935	Marcella Post Acute	0.5%	74.3	B	VA	HAMPTON	180	—
3936	BARBERTON POST ACUTE	0.5%	74.3	B	OH	BARBERTON	104	—
3937	Panora Specialty Care	0.5%	74.3	B	IA	Panora	46	CARE INITIATIVES
3938	PROVIDENCE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	74.3	B	IN	ST MARY OF THE WOODS	70	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
3939	Good Samaritan - Manson	0.5%	74.3	B	IA	Manson	42	SANFORD
3940	EDGEMERE ESTATES	0.5%	74.3	D	TX	EL PASO	0	EL PASO COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3941	AUTUMN BREEZE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	74.3	B	GA	MARIETTA	109	—
3942	Adept Nursing & Rehab of Blue Hill	0.5%	74.3	C	NE	BLUE HILL	62	BRASS NE TRUST
3943	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT WEST ACRES	0.5%	74.0	B	MA	BROCKTON	138	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
3944	The Legacy Rehab & Care Center	0.5%	74.0	A	AZ	BULLHEAD CITY	120	ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
3945	NEW CARLTON REHAB AND NURSING CENTER, L L C	0.5%	74.0	C	NY	BROOKLYN	148	—
3946	GOOD SAMARITAN HOME & REHABILITATIVE CENTER	0.5%	74.0	C	IN	OAKLAND CITY	103	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
3947	EDGEHILL NURSING AND REHAB CEN	0.5%	74.0	B	PA	GLENSIDE	60	PENNSYLVANIA LTC INC
3948	CRESTPARK FORREST CITY, LLC	0.5%	74.0	B	AR	FORREST CITY	100	BELEW LLC
3949	Elkton Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.5%	74.0	B	KY	Elkton	60	—
3950	Redeemer Health Care Center	0.5%	74.0	A	MN	MINNEAPOLIS	119	CASSIA

Showing 3,901–3,950 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.