Reads as: riskier than 3.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.8 vs natl
UMB BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
TRUIST BANK
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
UMB BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.74
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.18
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.17
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.96
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
44.0
3.74
0.18
1.21
2.34
3.17
0.0%
2025Q3
92
43.9
3.86
0.20
1.19
2.46
3.39
0.0%
2025Q2
91
45.1
3.70
0.20
1.17
2.33
3.19
0.0%
2025Q1
90
45.0
3.62
0.18
1.09
2.35
3.22
0.0%
2024Q4
92
45.4
3.55
0.17
1.16
2.23
3.22
0.0%
2024Q3
92
43.8
3.73
0.18
1.18
2.37
3.39
0.0%
2024Q2
91
43.0
3.83
0.20
1.17
2.46
3.43
0.0%
2024Q1
91
44.0
3.90
0.19
1.19
2.52
3.56
0.0%
2023Q4
92
43.7
3.70
0.24
1.17
2.29
3.49
0.0%
2023Q3
92
43.8
3.70
0.20
1.17
2.32
3.43
0.0%
2023Q2
91
45.2
3.53
0.22
1.11
2.21
3.32
0.0%
2023Q1
90
43.6
3.54
0.20
1.07
2.27
3.33
0.4%
2022Q4
92
43.2
3.60
0.09
1.13
2.38
3.47
1.9%
2022Q3
92
43.6
3.64
0.18
1.07
2.39
3.51
2.6%
2022Q2
91
43.9
3.91
0.13
1.38
2.40
3.44
2.5%
2022Q1
90
43.3
3.82
0.22
1.25
2.35
3.44
1.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 1E × 5F × 1J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-07
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2025-08-08
2025-08-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-08-08
2024-07-25
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-07-26
2024-07-25
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-07-26
2024-07-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-07-26
2023-06-02
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2023-07-05
2023-06-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2023-07-05
2023-06-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-07-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADAMS, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAGGETT, ALYCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BESSER, ALICIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, ALAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-04-13
current
pecos_ownership
BUNCH, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-08-13
current
pecos_ownership
CONGER, DALE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-21
current
pecos_ownership
CURRIE, MATTHEW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-08-21
current
pecos_ownership
GILTS, KIP
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KING, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOERNER, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-21
current
pecos_ownership
MALONE-WARDLEY, ROMONICA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2008-02-22
current
pecos_ownership
METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
—
—
2024-06-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
MORGAN, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MRC CRESTVIEW
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
MRC CRESTVIEW
—
—
2024-06-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
PARTIN, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIMMONS, ED
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-02
current
pecos_ownership
STEPHENS, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE ALDERSGATE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
THOMAS, AMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
TRUIST BANK
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2019-12-06
current
pecos_ownership
UMB BANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2016-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
WATSON, FRANKIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMSON, BILLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WOODWARD, WALTER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALAN BROWN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2020-04-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALYCE BAGGETT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BILLY WILLIAMSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2004-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD STEPHENS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW CURRIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-08-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD MORGAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM KING
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALICIA BESSER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY THOMAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DALE CONGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID SIMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-08-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ED SIMMONS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANKIE WATSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES BUNCH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-08-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIP GILTS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL ADAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROMONICA MALONE-WARDLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD PARTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
UMB BANK NA
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2016-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WALTER WOODWARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM KOERNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,048,872
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$1,028,895
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$855,495
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$689,480
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$581,199
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48041
acs median gross
0
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48041
fmr
0
$1,025
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48041
acs median gross
1
$1,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48041
fmr
1
$1,082
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48041
acs median gross
2
$1,109
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48041
fmr
2
$1,186
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48041
acs median gross
3
$1,631
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48041
fmr
3
$1,649
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48041
acs median gross
4
$1,774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48041
fmr
4
$1,928
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48041
acs median gross
5
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48041
acs median gross
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48041
acs recent mover gross
$1,322
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77802
acs median gross
1
$1,094
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77802
acs median gross
2
$1,209
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77802
acs median gross
3
$1,637
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77802
acs median gross
4
$2,024
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77802
acs median gross
5
$1,689
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77802
acs median gross
$1,280
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77802
acs recent mover gross
$1,249
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77802
payment standard 110
0
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 90
0
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
safmr
0
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 110
1
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 90
1
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
safmr
1
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 110
2
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 90
2
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
safmr
2
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 110
3
$2,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 90
3
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
safmr
3
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 110
4
$2,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
payment standard 90
4
$2,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77802
safmr
4
$2,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.