Screener / 375351

Aspen Health and Rehab

snfOK

1251 West Houston, Broken Arrow, OK 74012 · CCN 375351

Composite

93.5 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

126

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 93.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties1 Deficiencies18 Licensure0 Ownership16 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent36

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
billing conduct	90.5	60.2	0.30	0.2308	20.88	in index
financial risk	88.5	75.6	0.30	0.2308	20.42	in index
regulatory risk	69.5	64.2	0.30	0.2308	16.04	in index
chow risk	57.8	57.1	0.15	0.1154	6.67	in index
staffing risk	29.3	29.4	0.25	0.1923	5.63	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	60.2	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	24.9	A	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	89.3	F	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	75.6	D	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.5	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	1.6	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	64.2	C	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	29.4	B	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	99.8	F	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	79.8	D	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	74.4	D	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	74.0	D	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	64.0	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	64.0	C	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	29.4	B	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	29.4	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

1.6%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

65.5

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Chain size (log)	0.00	-0.40
Occupancy	0.82	-0.36
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	-0.17

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.5%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

74.3

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	+1.43
Chain size (log)	0.00	+1.20
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Occupancy	0.82	-0.31
Staffing trend, last 4 quarters	0.48	+0.20
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	3.67	-0.19
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	OK median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.67	2.78	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.28	0.18	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.40	2.72	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.78	2.80	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	103.7	3.67	0.28	0.78	2.62	3.40	0.0%
2025Q3	92	99.4	3.56	0.25	0.85	2.46	3.17	0.0%
2025Q2	91	100.6	3.54	0.32	0.82	2.40	3.21	0.0%
2025Q1	90	106.4	3.24	0.29	0.79	2.16	2.87	0.0%
2024Q4	92	108.8	3.19	0.19	0.74	2.27	2.74	0.0%
2024Q3	92	109.9	3.28	0.18	0.74	2.35	2.89	0.0%
2024Q2	91	106.8	3.57	0.22	0.92	2.43	2.90	0.0%
2024Q1	91	108.5	3.57	0.28	0.91	2.38	3.46	0.0%
2023Q4	92	106.7	3.74	0.24	0.91	2.58	3.38	0.0%
2023Q3	92	104.1	3.54	0.22	0.87	2.45	3.17	0.0%
2023Q2	91	92.4	3.77	0.30	0.93	2.54	3.25	0.0%
2023Q1	90	88.5	3.95	0.33	0.96	2.67	3.47	0.0%
2022Q4	92	89.8	3.91	0.36	1.04	2.51	3.21	0.0%
2022Q3	92	86.9	3.54	0.27	1.14	2.13	3.11	0.0%
2022Q2	91	84.0	3.05	0.11	1.10	1.84	2.60	0.0%
2022Q1	90	76.9	3.31	0.08	1.34	1.89	2.77	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

Date	Type	Fine	Source
2025-03-03	Fine	$35,721	CMS provider data

Total fines on record: $35,721

Deficiencies

D × 10E × 7J × 1

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2025-07-08	Health · complaint	F0585	Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.	D	2025-08-08
2025-06-06	Health · complaint	F0584	Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.	E	2025-08-19
2025-06-06	Health · complaint	F0659	Provide care by qualified persons according to each resident's written plan of care.	D	2025-08-19
2025-04-02	Health · complaint	F0600	Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.	J	2025-04-21
2025-03-03	Health · complaint	F0609	Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.	D	2025-04-21
2025-03-03	Health · complaint	F0641	Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.	D	2025-04-21
2025-03-03	Health · complaint	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	E	2025-04-21
2025-03-03	Health · complaint	F0770	Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.	E	2025-04-21
2024-07-03	Health	F0583	Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.	E	2024-08-16
2024-07-03	Health	F0688	Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.	E	2024-08-16
2024-07-03	Health	F0690	Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.	D	2024-08-16
2024-07-03	Health	F0758	Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.	E	2024-08-16
2024-07-03	Health	F0761	Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.	D	2024-08-16
2024-07-03	Health	F0814	Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.	D	2024-08-16
2023-09-07	Health · complaint	F0755	Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.	D	2023-10-04
2023-05-25	Health	F0657	Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.	D	2023-06-06
2023-05-25	Health	F0759	Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.	D	2023-06-06
2019-12-11	Health	F0640	Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.	E	2020-01-08

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
PARKS EDGE NURSING PROPERTY INC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2023-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
PARKS EDGE NURSING PROPERTY INC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2024-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
MOORE, JOSEPH	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2023-03-01	current	pecos_ownership
MORTON, MICHAEL	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2005-01-03	current	pecos_ownership
MORTON, MICHAEL	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-12-12	current	pecos_ownership
PARKS EDGE NURSING PROPERTY, INC.	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-12-12	current	pecos_ownership
ROSE BROWNFIELD, SARA	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-12-10	current	pecos_ownership
SAMS, JERRY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2007-04-01	current	pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MORTON	CORPORATE OFFICER	100%	2005-01-03	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PARKS EDGE NURSING PROPERTY INC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2022-01-01	ended 2022-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
PARKS EDGE NURSING PROPERTY INC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2021-01-01	ended 2021-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
PARKS EDGE NURSING PROPERTY INC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2020-01-01	ended 2020-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
SARA ROSE BROWNFIELD	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	100%	2023-11-27	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
DEBORA INKS	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2016-11-14	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JERRY SAMS	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2007-04-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MORTON	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2005-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$2,575,019	—	—	—	$376,971	10	propco
2023-12-31	$2,698,985	—	—	—	$312,401	11	propco
2022-12-31	$2,345,895	—	—	—	$241,131	10	propco
2021-12-31	$2,175,371	—	—	—	$205,995	10	propco
2020-12-31	$2,241,368	—	—	—	$173,582	10	propco

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — OK snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-02-01	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC	—	—	—	104	IGNITE MEDICAL RESORT TULSA, LLC
2025-01-01	THE COMMONS	—	—	—	138	COMMONS OPERATIONS LLC
2025-01-01	BEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS	—	—	—	80	BEADLES OPERATIONS, LLC
2024-11-01	STIGLER NURSING & REHAB	—	—	—	80	HASKELL NURSING & REHAB LLC
2024-07-01	NOWATA NURSING CENTER	—	—	—	65	NOWATA LTC LLC
2024-05-14	EASTGATE VILLAGE CARE & REHAB CENTER	—	—	—	110	EASTGATE HEALTHCARE, LLC
2024-05-14	Broadway Care & Rehab Center	—	—	—	105	BROADWAY HEALTHCARE, LLC
2024-05-14	FORT GIBSON CARE & REHAB CENTER	—	—	—	66	FORT GIBSON HEALTHCARE LLC
2024-04-01	HERITAGE MANOR	—	—	—	55	HERITAGE MANOR MANAGEMENT LLC
2024-04-01	HERITAGE PARK	—	—	—	55	HERITAGE PARK MANAGEMENT, LLC
2024-01-09	COWETA CARE & REHAB CENTER	—	—	—	100	COWETA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
2024-01-09	MITCHELL CARE & REHAB CENTER	—	—	—	100	MITCHELL HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT, LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 40143	acs median gross	0	$840	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143	fmr	0	$933	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143	acs median gross	1	$911	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143	fmr	1	$987	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143	acs median gross	2	$1,128	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143	fmr	2	$1,217	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143	acs median gross	3	$1,368	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143	fmr	3	$1,602	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143	acs median gross	4	$1,716	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143	fmr	4	$1,858	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 40143	acs median gross	5	$1,806	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143	acs median gross		$1,110	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 40143	acs recent mover gross		$1,198	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs median gross	0	$1,170	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs median gross	1	$1,045	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs median gross	2	$1,268	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs median gross	3	$1,519	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs median gross	4	$2,087	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs median gross	5	$2,083	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs median gross		$1,297	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 74012	acs recent mover gross		$1,431	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 74012	payment standard 110	0	$1,199	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 90	0	$981	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	safmr	0	$1,090	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 110	1	$1,265	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 90	1	$1,035	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	safmr	1	$1,150	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 110	2	$1,562	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 90	2	$1,278	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	safmr	2	$1,420	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 110	3	$2,057	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 90	3	$1,683	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	safmr	3	$1,870	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 110	4	$2,387	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	payment standard 90	4	$1,953	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 74012	safmr	4	$2,170	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.