Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,501–3,550

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3501	HENRYETTA COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE & REHAB	0.6%	77.2	A	OK	HENRYETTA	53	THE DONNA RENEE SIMMONS REVOCABLE TRUST DATED DECEMBER 17 2012
3502	MRC THE CROSSINGS	0.6%	77.2	A	TX	LEAGUE CITY	0	METHODIST RETIREMENT COMMUNITIES
3503	Trinity Oaks	0.6%	77.2	A	NC	Salisbury	115	LSA MANAGEMENT INC
3504	TWIN LAKES	0.6%	77.2	A	OH	CINCINNATI	43	—
3505	HAVEN MANOR HEALTH CARE CENTER, L L C	0.6%	77.2	C	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	240	—
3506	KING STREET HOME INC	0.6%	77.2	B	NY	PORT CHESTER	120	—
3507	UNITED ZION RETIREMENT COMMUNI	0.6%	77.0	A	PA	LITITZ	59	COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
3508	CAYUGA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.0	B	NY	ITHACA	160	—
3509	BENEDICTINE LIVING CENTER OF GARRISON	0.6%	77.0	A	ND	GARRISON	52	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
3510	HERITAGE GROVE ESTATES	0.6%	77.0	C	KS	TOPEKA	80	—
3511	New England Pediatric Care	0.6%	77.0	A	MA	NORTH BILLERICA	80	—
3512	SHILOH NURSING AND REHAB, LLC	0.6%	77.0	C	AR	SPRINGDALE	140	—
3513	CONCORDIA AT SUMNER	0.6%	77.0	A	OH	COPLEY	48	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
3514	MCALESTER NURSING & REHAB	0.6%	77.0	B	OK	MCALESTER	63	—
3515	SANCTUARY WADSWORTH	0.6%	77.0	A	OH	WADSWORTH	79	—
3516	PINEKNOLL REHABILITATION CENTRE	0.6%	77.0	A	IN	WINCHESTER	58	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3517	West Chicago Living and Rehab Center	0.6%	77.0	F	IL	WEST CHICAGO	120	—
3518	Franklin-Simpson Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.6%	77.0	B	KY	Franklin	98	—
3519	REGENCY HERITAGE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.0	B	NJ	SOMERSET	265	—
3520	GOOD SHEPHERD-FAIRVIEW HOME INC	0.6%	77.0	C	NY	BINGHAMTON	54	—
3521	RIVERSIDE LIFELONG HEALTH & REHABILITATION SALUD	0.6%	77.0	B	VA	SALUDA	60	RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE ASSOCIATION INC
3522	The Home Place At Midway	0.6%	77.0	A	KY	Midway	28	CHRISTIAN CARE COMMUNITIES INC
3523	VILLAGE CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER, THE	0.6%	77.0	A	CO	WESTMINSTER	60	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
3524	Childserve Habilitation Center	0.6%	77.0	A	IA	Johnston	74	—
3525	Rose Linn Care Center	0.6%	77.0	A	OR	WEST LINN	71	—
3526	Good Shepherd Health and Rehabilitation	0.6%	77.0	C	KY	Phelps	118	—
3527	Tarboro Health and Rehabilitation LLC	0.6%	76.8	B	NC	Tarboro	118	—
3528	WOODBURY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	76.8	A	TN	WOODBURY	82	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
3529	Helen Newberry Joy HLTCU Golden Leaves Living Cent	0.6%	76.8	B	MI	Newberry	39	—
3530	FAIRHAVEN CHRISTIAN RET CENTER	0.6%	76.8	B	IL	ROCKFORD	96	—
3531	SIENNA EXTENDED CARE & REHAB	0.6%	76.8	B	OK	MIDWEST CITY	100	—
3532	YAMATO NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	76.8	C	FL	BOCA RATON	180	PALM BEACH HEALTH PARTNERS LLC
3533	Carroll Health and Rehab LLC	0.6%	76.8	F	LA	Oak Grove	120	—
3534	ELSBERRY MISSOURI HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.8	B	MO	ELSBERRY	56	—
3535	LAURELS OF DEKALB	0.6%	76.8	C	IN	BUTLER	101	—
3536	Sholom Home West	0.6%	76.8	A	MN	SAINT LOUIS PARK	139	—
3537	TARPON BAYOU CENTER	0.6%	76.8	C	FL	TARPON SPRINGS	114	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
3538	Windemere Park Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.6%	76.8	B	MI	Warren	92	—
3539	MILL TOWN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	76.8	D	MA	AMESBURY	130	—
3540	EVENTIDE HEARTLAND	0.6%	76.8	B	ND	DEVILS LAKE	78	EVENTIDE
3541	JULIAN J LEVITT FAMILY NURSING HOME	0.6%	76.8	B	MA	LONGMEADOW	200	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
3542	ROLLING MEADOWS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	76.8	B	IN	LA FONTAINE	115	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
3543	COVENANT LIVING OF KEENE	0.6%	76.8	A	NH	KEENE	20	COVENANT LIVING COMMUNITIES & SERVICES
3544	BLUE PALMS HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER AT FLE	0.6%	76.8	C	FL	TAMPA	163	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
3545	THE PAVILION AT PIKETON	0.6%	76.8	C	OH	PIKETON	155	—
3546	COVINGTON SKILLED NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.6%	76.8	B	OH	EAST PALESTINE	65	—
3547	The Terraces of Phoenix	0.6%	76.8	B	AZ	PHOENIX	64	HUMANGOOD
3548	BEACON HILL	0.6%	76.8	C	IL	LOMBARD	45	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
3549	ONEIDA HEALTH REHABILITATION AND EXTENDED CARE	0.6%	76.8	D	NY	ONEIDA	160	—
3550	HALE MALAMALAMA	0.6%	76.8	B	HI	HONOLULU	40	—

Showing 3,501–3,550 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.