Reads as: riskier than 16.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.48
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.70
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.13
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.61
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
56.0
4.48
0.70
1.01
2.77
4.13
0.0%
2025Q3
92
56.1
4.50
0.68
1.06
2.76
4.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
55.0
4.65
0.67
1.10
2.88
4.36
0.0%
2025Q1
90
56.4
4.34
0.66
0.99
2.69
4.04
0.0%
2024Q4
92
55.3
4.33
0.56
1.07
2.69
4.04
0.0%
2024Q3
92
56.6
4.21
0.51
1.08
2.61
3.89
0.0%
2024Q2
91
56.6
4.33
0.46
1.08
2.79
3.96
0.0%
2024Q1
91
56.4
4.29
0.47
1.11
2.71
4.00
1.2%
2023Q4
92
56.8
4.06
0.48
1.08
2.50
3.88
0.5%
2023Q3
92
57.0
4.04
0.45
1.07
2.52
3.84
0.0%
2023Q2
91
56.2
4.10
0.44
1.15
2.51
3.90
0.0%
2023Q1
90
55.8
4.17
0.46
1.15
2.56
4.00
0.0%
2022Q4
92
55.9
4.13
0.45
1.17
2.51
3.94
1.3%
2022Q3
92
56.4
4.14
0.43
1.18
2.53
3.93
9.1%
2022Q2
91
57.5
4.08
0.45
1.19
2.43
3.89
11.0%
2022Q1
90
57.1
4.18
0.52
1.11
2.55
4.10
17.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-02-23
2024-07-18
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
D
2024-08-19
2024-07-18
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-08-19
2023-09-29
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-10-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
61
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
UNITED ZION RETIREMENT COMMUNITY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
AGUILLARD, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-19
current
pecos_ownership
BANKUNITED, NA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
BANKUNITED, NA
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-07-02
current
pecos_ownership
BASHORE, MITCHELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-05-18
current
pecos_ownership
DIAZ, KATIRIA-MARIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-06
current
pecos_ownership
ELMORE, RAYMOND
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-13
current
pecos_ownership
FAUS, JESSICA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
FOREFRONT HEALTHCARE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
current
pecos_ownership
FOREFRONT HEALTHCARE, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRY, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEIB, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GERHART, ROGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
GROFF, HOLLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HACKMAN, WARREN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAUPT, ELLEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-09-26
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY-ISAAC, JANET
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
KOLOCIN, KARLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEON, JAMIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MALLOZZI, MARIANO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
MAST, WENDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
MATLOW, LEA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
METZLER, EUNICE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
MUSSER, MATTHEW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
SENSENIG, SHANNON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOUDERS, ZACHARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-04-26
current
pecos_ownership
SPOHN, CLARENCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
TERCERO, SUSANA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
VERDEGEM, MARILYN SUE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-05-07
current
pecos_ownership
WELLSPAN MEDICAL GROUP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
WELLSPAN MEDICAL GROUP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, DORCAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DORCAS ZIMMERMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELLEN HAUPT
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-09-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EUNICE METZLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2020-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN FRY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARILYN SUE VERDEGEM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW MUSSER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2020-10-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROGER GERHART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON SENSENIG
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSANA TERCERO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WARREN HACKMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM GEIB
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER AGUILLARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLARENCE SPOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY GROFF
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMIE LEON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANET HENRY-ISAAC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA FAUS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLEY KOLOCIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-11-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATIRIA-MARIE DIAZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEA MATLOW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIANO MALLOZZI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL BASHORE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAYMOND ELMORE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WENDY MAST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZACHARY SOUDERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-04-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42071
acs median gross
0
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
0
$1,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
1
$1,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
1
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
2
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
2
$1,526
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
3
$1,544
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
3
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
4
$1,540
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
fmr
4
$2,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42071
acs median gross
5
$1,503
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
acs median gross
$1,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42071
acs recent mover gross
$1,490
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17543
acs median gross
0
$1,297
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17543
acs median gross
1
$1,320
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17543
acs median gross
2
$1,457
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17543
acs median gross
3
$1,707
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17543
acs median gross
4
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17543
acs median gross
$1,440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 17543
acs recent mover gross
$1,467
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 17543
payment standard 110
0
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 90
0
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
safmr
0
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 110
1
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 90
1
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
safmr
1
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 110
2
$1,705
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 90
2
$1,395
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
safmr
2
$1,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 110
3
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 90
3
$1,809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
safmr
3
$2,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 110
4
$2,255
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
payment standard 90
4
$1,845
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 17543
safmr
4
$2,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.