Reads as: riskier than 13.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.15
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.26
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.15
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.15
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
41.6
3.15
0.26
1.10
1.79
3.15
0.0%
2025Q3
92
42.8
3.21
0.27
1.11
1.83
3.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
40.2
3.38
0.27
1.11
2.00
3.21
0.0%
2025Q1
90
44.7
3.09
0.26
0.77
2.06
3.13
0.0%
2024Q4
92
42.3
3.14
0.30
0.85
1.99
3.09
0.0%
2024Q3
92
42.5
3.49
0.27
0.95
2.28
3.42
0.7%
2024Q2
91
45.8
3.35
0.20
0.87
2.28
3.28
0.0%
2024Q1
91
38.4
3.34
0.23
1.02
2.09
3.36
0.0%
2023Q4
92
37.9
3.30
0.26
1.01
2.03
3.20
0.0%
2023Q3
92
36.1
3.61
0.19
1.14
2.28
3.45
6.9%
2023Q2
91
38.0
3.93
0.17
1.05
2.71
3.87
8.1%
2023Q1
90
43.5
3.36
0.17
0.96
2.23
3.21
4.9%
2022Q4
92
39.3
3.60
0.16
1.05
2.40
3.40
4.1%
2022Q3
92
42.4
3.35
0.18
0.91
2.26
3.13
4.8%
2022Q2
91
45.5
3.15
0.18
0.78
2.19
2.88
1.9%
2022Q1
90
42.3
3.46
0.36
0.76
2.35
3.38
0.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
20
C × 1D × 10E × 3F × 6
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
C
2026-03-13
2025-11-13
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-12-01
2025-08-25
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-25
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-03-10
2025-02-13
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-03-10
2024-07-24
Health · complaint
F0569
Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death.
D
2024-08-13
2024-02-26
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-03-22
2024-02-26
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-03-22
2024-02-26
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2024-03-22
2024-02-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-03-22
2024-02-26
Health
F0838
Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.
F
2024-03-22
2024-02-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-22
2023-07-06
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-07-27
2023-07-06
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-07-27
2022-02-24
Health
F0606
Not hire anyone with a finding of abuse, neglect, exploitation, or theft.
E
2022-03-30
2022-02-24
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-03-30
2022-02-24
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-03-30
2022-02-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-03-30
2022-02-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-03-30
2022-02-24
Health
F0888
Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19
F
2022-03-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARKLEY, STEPHANIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOUGHNER, NANCY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FALBO, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FALBO, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
FRNDAK, KEITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
HEINTZ, FREDERICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HORTERT, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HORTERT, BRIAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
MCKAY, NATALIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OSTER, MARC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARTIS, MICHELE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REHKOPF, PAUL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WASHBURN, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN HORTERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN HORTERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL WASHBURN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-11-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK HEINTZ
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEITH FRNDAK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-11-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC OSTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL FALBO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL FALBO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE PARTIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NANCY BOUGHNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATALIE MCKAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL REHKOPF
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE BARKLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$706,154
—
—
—
—
2
—
2024-06-30
$646,413
—
—
—
—
2
—
2023-06-30
$1,198,809
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-06-30
$768,090
—
—
—
$16,267
2
—
2021-06-30
$675,333
—
—
—
$9,765
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39153
acs median gross
0
$844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
0
$904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
1
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
1
$985
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
2
$1,080
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
2
$1,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
3
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
3
$1,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
4
$1,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
fmr
4
$1,681
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39153
acs median gross
5
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
acs median gross
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39153
acs recent mover gross
$1,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44321
acs median gross
1
$1,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44321
acs median gross
2
$1,462
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44321
acs median gross
3
$1,665
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44321
acs median gross
$1,444
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44321
acs recent mover gross
$1,872
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44321
payment standard 110
0
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 90
0
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
safmr
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 110
1
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 90
1
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
safmr
1
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 110
2
$1,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 90
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
safmr
2
$1,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 110
3
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 90
3
$1,863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
safmr
3
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 110
4
$2,475
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
payment standard 90
4
$2,025
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44321
safmr
4
$2,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.