Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

301–350

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
301	PECAN CREEK HEALTHCARE CENTER	10.8%	98.2	C	TX	HAMILTON	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
302	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF ROCKWOOD REHAB & WELLNESS	10.8%	98.2	C	TN	ROCKWOOD	157	WHEATEN LLC
303	LIFE CARE CENTER OF CLEVELAND	10.8%	98.2	B	TN	CLEVELAND	142	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
304	ALDEN TERRACE OF MCHENRY REHAB	10.8%	98.2	F	IL	MCHENRY	316	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
305	LIFE CARE CENTER OF TULLAHOMA	10.8%	98.2	C	TN	TULLAHOMA	169	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
306	MCINTOSH CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	10.8%	98.2	C	CO	LONGMONT	110	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
307	BERKLEY MANOR CARE CENTER	10.8%	98.2	B	CO	DENVER	118	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
308	Park Village Healthcare and Rehabilitation	10.7%	98.2	C	TX	Desoto	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
309	LIFE CARE CENTER OF SENECA	10.7%	98.2	C	KS	SENECA	60	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
310	Indian Hills Manor	10.7%	98.2	B	NE	Ogallala	82	LANTIS ENTERPRISES INC
311	WEST POINT COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	10.7%	98.2	B	MS	WEST POINT	100	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
312	THE LIVING CENTER	10.7%	98.2	B	OK	ENID	50	MARSH POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
313	Five Points Nursing & Rehabilitation of College St	10.7%	98.2	F	TX	College Station	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
314	Spring River Rehabilitation and Care Center	10.7%	98.2	C	NM	Roswell	120	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
315	COLONIAL NURSING HOME	10.6%	98.1	A	IN	CROWN POINT	55	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
316	EXTON POST ACUTE	10.6%	98.1	D	PA	EXTON	120	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
317	CREST NURSING HOME	10.6%	98.1	C	MT	BUTTE	103	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
318	CAPROCK NURSING & REHABILITATION	10.6%	98.1	B	TX	BORGER	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
319	Meadow View Health Services	10.6%	98.1	B	WI	Sheboygan	50	NORTH SHORE HEALTHCARE LLC
320	EFFINGHAM HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING	10.6%	98.1	C	IL	EFFINGHAM	62	STONEWALL HCG LLC
321	HEREFORD NURSING & REHABILITATION	10.6%	98.1	C	TX	HEREFORD	0	LLANO ESTACADO HEALTHCARE LLC
322	Marshall Nursing and Rehabilitation Community	10.6%	98.1	D	MI	Marshall	60	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
323	Many Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	10.6%	98.1	F	LA	Many	162	NEXION HEALTH INC
324	Avina of Milwaukee	10.6%	98.1	D	WI	MILWAUKEE	108	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
325	PARKER NURSING & REHAB CENTER	10.6%	98.1	F	IL	STREATOR	102	GUBIN ENTERPRISES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
326	GREENERY CENTER FOR REHAB AND NURSING	10.6%	98.1	C	PA	CANONSBURG	140	—
327	LEBANON SOUTH NURSING & REHAB	10.6%	98.1	F	MO	LEBANON	116	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
328	Life Care Center of Idaho Falls	10.6%	98.1	D	ID	Idaho Falls	109	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
329	Meridian Center	10.6%	98.1	C	NC	High Point	199	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
330	Cascades at Skyview	10.6%	98.0	C	NE	Bridgeport	48	—
331	Mountain Ridge Center, Genesis HealthCare	10.5%	98.0	B	NH	FRANKLIN	86	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
332	Granite Creek Health & Rehabilitation Center	10.5%	98.0	C	AZ	PRESCOTT	128	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
333	PRUITTHEALTH - TOCCOA	10.5%	98.0	C	GA	TOCCOA	181	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
334	BERLIN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	10.5%	98.0	F	MD	BERLIN	165	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
335	BIG SPRING CENTER FOR SKILLED CARE	10.5%	98.0	D	TX	BIG SPRING	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
336	Flatonia Healthcare Center	10.5%	98.0	B	TX	Flatonia	0	WINNIE STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
337	Accura Healthcare of Knoxville, LLC	10.5%	98.0	C	IA	Knoxville	60	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
338	Trotwood Health & Rehab LLC	10.5%	98.0	F	OH	DAYTON	67	HILLSTONE HEALTHCARE INC
339	LIFE CARE CENTER OF GREELEY	10.5%	98.0	C	CO	GREELEY	124	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
340	LIFE CARE CENTER OF RICHLAND	10.5%	98.0	D	WA	RICHLAND	104	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
341	Graham Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	10.5%	98.0	C	NC	Robbinsville	80	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
342	SANDY LAKE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	10.4%	98.0	F	TX	COPPELL	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
343	LEGEND HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION - PARIS	10.4%	98.0	D	TX	PARIS	0	FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
344	INTEGRITY HC OF CARBONDALE	10.4%	98.0	D	IL	CARBONDALE	131	—
345	WEST VALLEY POST ACUTE	10.4%	98.0	C	CA	WEST HILLS	128	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
346	Orchard Park Rehab & Living Center	10.4%	98.0	B	ME	Farmington	38	—
347	EVERGREEN HEALTHCARE CENTER	10.4%	98.0	C	OH	MONTPELIER	73	RRW LLC
348	Medilodge of Farmington	10.4%	98.0	D	MI	Farmington	117	B&Y TRUST
349	DIVERSICARE OF LARNED	10.3%	97.9	A	KS	LARNED	80	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
350	LIFE CARE CENTER OF WESTMINSTER	10.3%	97.9	C	CO	WESTMINSTER	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC

Showing 301–350 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.