Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

351–400

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
351	GLENWOOD SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	10.3%	97.9	B	OK	GLENPOOL	119	BRIDGES ESOP INC
352	LAMAR ESTATES NURSING CENTER	10.3%	97.9	C	CO	LAMAR	60	—
353	University Park Care Center	10.3%	97.9	B	CO	PUEBLO	180	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
354	AVIR AT SAN AUGUSTINE	10.3%	97.9	C	TX	SAN AUGUSTINE	0	SUMMIT LTC MANAGEMENT LLC
355	SWEETWATER HEALTHCARE CENTER	10.3%	97.9	C	TX	SWEETWATER	0	STRATFORD HOSPITAL DISTRICT
356	SAGE REHABILITATION HOSPITAL SNF	10.3%	97.9	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	25	PTM 2018 FAMILY TRUST
357	ALDERWOOD MANOR	10.3%	97.9	C	WA	SPOKANE	85	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
358	SIKESTON CONVALESCENT CENTER	10.2%	97.9	D	MO	SIKESTON	120	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
359	LIFE CARE CENTER OF KANSAS CITY	10.2%	97.9	B	KS	KANSAS CITY	82	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
360	PINE CREST HEALTH CARE	10.2%	97.9	D	IL	HAZEL CREST	199	ATIED ASSOCIATES LLC
361	ASPEN HEALTH AND WELLNESS	10.2%	97.9	D	KS	OVERLAND PARK	102	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
362	COUNTRY VILLA WELLNESS & REHABILITATION	10.2%	97.9	C	MO	CREVE COEUR	148	GOLDBERG NOM LLC
363	Fuquay-Varina Health and Rehabilitation Center	10.2%	97.9	C	NC	Fuquay Varina	100	CHOICE HEALTH MANAGEMENT SERV LLC
364	WATERS OF WABASH SKILLED NURSING FACILITY EAST THE	10.2%	97.9	C	IN	WABASH	84	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
365	LA CANADA CARE CENTER	10.2%	97.9	B	AZ	TUCSON	128	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
366	NORTH CAPITOL NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	10.1%	97.8	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	123	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
367	HERITAGE HALL NURSING CENTER	10.1%	97.8	C	MO	CENTRALIA	60	AMERICARE SYSTEMS INC
368	GREENBRIER HEALTH CENTER	10.1%	97.8	C	OH	PARMA HEIGHTS	162	RRW LLC
369	Misty Willow Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center	10.1%	97.8	C	TX	Houston	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
370	CARE CHOICE OF BOERNE	10.1%	97.8	D	TX	BOERNE	0	UVALDE COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
371	BURBANK HEALTHCARE & REHAB	10.1%	97.8	C	CA	BURBANK	188	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
372	ST FRANCOIS MANOR	10.1%	97.8	D	MO	FARMINGTON	118	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
373	SHAWNEE COLONIAL ESTATES NURSING HOME	10.1%	97.8	D	OK	SHAWNEE	161	HEALTH SYSTEMS OF OKLAHOMA LLC
374	BETHANY REHAB & HCC	10.1%	97.8	C	IL	DEKALB	90	WALNUT CREEK MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
375	WAYLAND NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	10.1%	97.8	C	VA	KEYSVILLE	90	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
376	Galion Meadows Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation	10.1%	97.8	D	OH	GALION	62	WHEATEN LLC
377	HERITAGE CENTER, THE	10.1%	97.8	C	TN	MORRISTOWN	197	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
378	STONEBRIDGE OWENSVILLE	10.1%	97.8	F	MO	OWENSVILLE	131	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
379	AVALON HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER - PASCO	10.0%	97.8	D	WA	PASCO	108	AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
380	WATERS OF MARTINSVILLE, THE	10.0%	97.7	C	IN	MARTINSVILLE	103	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
381	COALINGA REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR DP/SNF	10.0%	97.7	A	CA	COALINGA	99	—
382	WATERS OF WABASH SKILLED NURSING FACILITY WEST	10.0%	97.7	D	IN	WABASH	44	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
383	Life Care Center of Sandpoint	10.0%	97.7	D	ID	Sandpoint	124	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
384	RIDGEVIEW TERRACE OF LIFE CARE	10.0%	97.7	A	TN	RUTLEDGE	132	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
385	Mountain View Manor	10.0%	97.7	A	AZ	PRESCOTT	116	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
386	Chowan River Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	10.0%	97.7	A	NC	Edenton	130	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
387	MILLER'S MERRY MANOR	10.0%	97.7	B	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	114	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
388	GLENBROOK REHABILITATION & SKILLED NURSING CENTER	10.0%	97.7	A	IN	FORT WAYNE	82	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
389	LA BELLE MANOR CARE CENTER	10.0%	97.7	C	MO	LA BELLE	94	—
390	STONEBRIDGE VILLA MARIE	10.0%	97.7	B	MO	JEFFERSON CITY	120	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
391	MAGNOLIA CREEK SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	10.0%	97.7	C	OK	ALTUS	158	BRIDGES ESOP INC
392	Winnfield Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	10.0%	97.7	B	LA	Winnfield	124	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
393	WARSAW MEADOWS	10.0%	97.7	B	IN	WARSAW	80	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
394	Life Care Center Of Columbia	10.0%	97.7	C	SC	Columbia	179	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
395	Waters Edge Health and Rehabilitation Center	10.0%	97.7	C	WI	KENOSHA	128	CHAMPION CARE LLC
396	MEDICALODGES LEAVENWORTH	10.0%	97.7	B	KS	LEAVENWORTH	45	MEDICALODGES INC
397	MONROE HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	10.0%	97.6	B	VA	CHARLOTTESVILLE	180	BNV DYNASTY LLC
398	MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW HAVEN	10.0%	97.6	C	IN	NEW HAVEN	109	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
399	Hillcrest Manor Nursing Center	10.0%	97.6	D	OK	Blackwell	137	—
400	AVIR AT GONZALES	9.9%	97.6	A	TX	GONZALES	0	GONZALES HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS

Showing 351–400 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.